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Shattered Jade: Japanese Götterdämmerung, 1945-1947

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  • Shattered Jade: Japanese Götterdämmerung, 1945-1947

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    Last edited by BobTheBarbarian; 07 Oct 20, 19:33.
    Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

  • #2
    For one thing, we would have used herbicides to kill the rice crop for 1945 and 1945. Maybe 20 million die of starvation.
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    • #3
      A few things of note IMHO:

      The Soviets would end the war outright owning a goodly chunk of China. Chiang, backed by the US and Brits, would likely have a smaller slice of China, but it's more likely that the Soviets avarice would be noticed and part of Mainland China, centered around Hong Kong could become what Formosa did IRL.....imagine a Republic of China covering a large chunk of southern coastal China and Formosa. And Red China being smaller....and likely a Soviet within the Soviet Union rather than a completely separate entity. Other things related to this could also include no North Vietnam, all of Indochina being saved by the British, with some American help.

      "The only place that they'll speak Japanese is in Hell!".....yep.....if they go this route this is going to happen.

      I'd estimate 2 million, maybe 2.5 million total casualties for the greater allied forces, including Russia and China.....nukes, mines, and air/sea attack would finish off the ability for Japan to functionally supply its forces within a few more months, but if units refused to surrender, they didn't require a huge amount of supply as most Japanese units were light infantry, and they could hold out for quite some time on short rations and captured food/fuel/weapons.
      Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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      • #4
        The US for certain would have fire bombed and atomic bombed every city in Japan into ash. Once the US has established forward airfields where tactical aircraft can operate the amount of destruction would increase exponentially.
        They would destroy the rail system entirely. Manufacturing would be obliterated along with refineries and electrical power.

        The USN would mine every harbor ending virtually any and all imports.

        The Soviets, using US provided amphibious equipment would have taken the Kurile Islands in short order, even if it meant heavy casualties.

        That means when the US invades in the south the Russians invade from the North.

        It just gets worse and worse for Japan.

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        • #5
          Atomic bombs being dropped from B29s?
          My worst jump story:
          My 13th jump was on the 13th day of the month, aircraft number 013.
          As recorded on my DA Form 1307 Individual Jump Log.
          No lie.

          ~
          "Everything looks all right. Have a good jump, eh."
          -2 Commando Jumpmaster

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          • #6
            Warlords and revolution

            This would be - interesting. I would expect to see some quite brutal local fighting in areas of the " Old empire" Okinawa and Formosa- as sea ravel becomes restricted or non existent. You would probably see a lot of former German and Italian weapons dropped to insurgents.

            the Moluccas and the Philippines would go up in flames, followed by Indonesia.

            the end of the Asian co- prosperity sphere...
            The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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            • #7
              Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
              EDITING POST... PLEASE WAIT UNTIL THIS MESSAGE IS GONE BEFORE QUOTING ME


              Here is where it really gets disturbing. Marshall was rather unimpressed by the atom bombs being used against Japanese cities, and ordered a halt to all future strikes against urban targets. Instead, he ordered the A-bombs to be hoarded for tactical strikes on Japanese reserve areas in order to counter the Japanese buildup on Kyushu, which had, unbeknownst to the Americans, actually outnumbered planned US 6th Army forces 917,000 to 766,700.

              The Americans, who had little concept of nuclear fallout at the time, planned to deploy combat troops over ground hit by the bombs as little as 48 HOURS AFTER DETONATION.

              Imagine the casualties to radiation poisoning, not to mention the horrible birth defects that would afflict descendants of the survivors years down the road...
              Actually, as testing in the 50's demonstrated, the effects of a bomb 48 hours before, 2 hours before, would be minimal or non-existent on US troops in terms of the battle space and time.



              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob

              30 minutes after one of these tests the US Army marched a 1000 man battalion in nothing but normal uniforms across ground zero. It would make zero difference in terms of the battle.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                The Soviets, using US provided amphibious equipment would have taken the Kurile Islands in short order, even if it meant heavy casualties.

                That means when the US invades in the south the Russians invade from the North.

                It just gets worse and worse for Japan.
                Didn't the planned Soviet Invasion of Japan get cancelled because of the US? Even though the Soviet 87th Rifle Corps was deemed incapable of seizing Southern Hokkaido by US planners, any Soviet lodgement in the Home Islands was deemed politically unacceptable, and the operation was nixed by Washington.
                Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                  Didn't the planned Soviet Invasion of Japan get cancelled because of the US? Even though the Soviet 87th Rifle Corps was deemed incapable of seizing Southern Hokkaido by US planners, any Soviet lodgement in the Home Islands was deemed politically unacceptable, and the operation was nixed by Washington.
                  The Soviets used the first of the US delivered amphibious equipment to invade Shumshu island in the Kuriles days after the war officially ended. The Soviets took that island and Paramushir island in fighting that lasted about a week.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                    (...)
                    Call me crazy, but I honestly think that if the war continued, and the Soviets would have had to actually fight the Manchuria Campaign to the finish, the losses they'd incur there (despite the weakened state of the Kwantung Army) would have exhausted the three Fronts committed to the offensive on August 9.
                    I seriously doubt that the Red Army would be exhausted in Manchuria.
                    The Kwantung Army of 1945 was on a late 30s equipment level. It's troops were not as well trained as those of the 1939 Kwantung Army.

                    The Soviets OTOH were fielding modern Tanks, Artillery and other heavy equipment.
                    They could rely on reinforcements of Veteran troops from the war in Europe. The worst enemy of the Soviets was: supplies.
                    The Japs were wise to lay down their arms.
                    One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                      I seriously doubt that the Red Army would be exhausted in Manchuria.
                      The Kwantung Army of 1945 was on a late 30s equipment level. It's troops were not as well trained as those of the 1939 Kwantung Army.
                      So the Soviets would have had little difficulty exterminating a force of nearly 1 million armed men, who had already inflicted 36,456 casualties on some of their best formations, mostly between the periods of August 9 to August 17, and then still have been able to conduct large scale offensive actions into China and Korea? I don't think that's something any army would be able to take in stride. Whether or not my hypotheses are right, the suicidal fanaticism of the Japanese soldier, even those of the depleted Kwantung Army, should never be underestimated in its ability to produce mass casualties (on all sides).

                      I don't think any campaign against such a mentality could be described as "easy."
                      Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                        The Americans, who had little concept of nuclear fallout at the time, planned to deploy combat troops over ground hit by the bombs as little as 48 HOURS AFTER DETONATION.
                        I've read 30 minutes for combat usage.
                        Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                        Hyperwar, Whats New
                        World War II Resources
                        The best place in the world to "work".

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                        • #13
                          Why invade. Killing off the crops from the air and let them starve. Start forest fires to destroy fuel supplies of wood. The people of the Home Islands were not going anyplace and what forces outside the Home Islands had no way and no place to go .
                          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                          you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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                          • #14
                            Operation Tiderace/Zipper

                            Also remember the fighting in Southeast Asia. Under this alternate timeline the Allied Operations 'Tiderace' and 'Zipper,' meant to recapture Malaya and Singapore from Japanese control and involving about ~200,000 on all sides, would now be launched against fully armed Japanese opposition. In addition, the Axis forces in Burma were hastily withdrawing and probably would have linked up with their Armies in Thailand. Clearing this country, as well as occupied French Indochina, likely would have been extremely expensive, and would have resulted in tens of thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of losses.
                            Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                              ... the Allied Operations 'Tiderace' and 'Zipper,' meant to recapture Malaya and Singapore from Japanese control and involving about ~200,000 on all sides, would now be launched against fully armed Japanese opposition. ...
                              Refer to the battle of Manilia for how a Japanese stand in Singapore might have gone. The Red Army would be encountered the same situation when the better parts of the Kawantung Army made a stand in the larger cities.

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