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Best scenarios for Japan 1943-1945

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  • Best scenarios for Japan 1943-1945

    Although all scenarios end with Japan being nuked around August 1945, with a tweaking of tactics and strategies and luck, despite losing at Midway and Guadalcanal, what is the best possible plausible scenarios for the Japanese 1943-45 until then?



    e.g. Yamamoto survives, Wingate captured, Chindits wiped out, Imphal and Kohima fall, INA uprising, Calcutta captured, better use of Japanese submarines extracts heavy toll of US shipping beyond Hawaii; Tarawa, Iwo Jima, Okinawa are pyrrhic US victories with swingeing US losses, Phillipines hold on, Marianas "turkey shoot" is a draw, Battles of Leyte Gulf and Samar are Japanese victories, earlier use of Kamikazes inhibits USN movements, heavy losses causes a US moral and manpower crisis causing Roosevelt to plead for Soviet and UK assistance in the Pacific, balloons actually get to cause some plagues and forest fires in the US, Japanese capture & develop their own proximity-fuse AA shells in time to extract a bigger toll of B29s, USS Indiannapolis get torpedoed before unloading the A bomb material, Stalin does not attack in August 1945, I submarine aircraft heavily damage the Panama Canal etc.
    Last edited by Mifletz; 16 Aug 14, 15:12.

  • #2
    The best strategic outcome is that the Navy faction retains control of the government and Tojo and the other generals are caught before they can control the government. With the IJA out and IJN in, the government determines that their best option is to limit further expansion in China and consolidate their gains to date.

    To this end the Japanese government encourages immigration to Manchukuo by grants of land and such. They extend this to Nisei living abroad to entice them to return for land and wealth. Like Hitler, the government encourages big families and births by paying for them etc.
    At the same time they begin to "encourage" Chinese living there to leave.
    The objective is to Japanize these areas. Japanese becomes the official language and the one taught in every school (Korea too). Within China the IJA moves to consolidate gains and secure its position.
    At the same time it begins to play Chinese factions off against one and other by arming those they favor and supporting action against ones they oppose. By keeping China in turmoil they can keep the Chinese from fighting them.
    Japan's best course during the war is to oppose Germany and Italy not stand by them. Even if Japan remains neutral they could openly support Russia and the Allies with materials, shipping, etc.

    Only the grandiose scheming of regional domination by the IJA pushed Japan into war. They are better off avoiding it and becoming the regional power on a more limited scale.

    Imagine a Japan that controls all of Korea, Manchukuo, islands like Formosa and Hainan in a post WW 2 world. They would have far greater resources and a much larger population base to work off of. With their proximity to Russia (the Soviet Union) they could negotiate treaties with the US favorably for military basing and intelligence operations.

    Japan wins not going to war.

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    • #3
      The only thing I see working is gathering as much men and material as quickly as possible in their conquered territories and taking it home. Force locals to gather fuel, metal, rubber, wood and rice and stock up every boat that can make the journey to Japan.

      Simultaneously, decoys would be constructed to make all occupied islands seem fully defended, when in actuality they were barely guarded. I imagine wooden vehicles, planes, ships, and guns. Constant patrols by the men left there to look like a lot of activity. Dress up locals as Japanese soldiers, boys, women and old men. The rest of the Japanese military would be quietly boarding ships to defend the Japanese homeland. Some more men could be sent to China and Indochina to shore up gains and resources until invasion was imminent. Once it was, they would utilize the same deception tactics as in Southeast Asia.

      Once the majority of soldiers made it back to Japanese territory, utilize and retrain them for AAA gunners, pilots, armament, fleet and aircraft manufacturing. A focus on AA tactics, weaponry and munitions, priority on long range high altitude fighters and tactics, small and fast well armored/armed warships. Utilizing captured people and unemployed citizens for construction of a huge network of defenses on Japan itself. A better early warning system of American bombers and plentiful bunkers for citizens to evacuate to. A large, well trained fire department with access to water from many sources.

      Relocation of manufacturing and naval bases out of allied air force reach. Wooden decoys built to look like built/rebuilt in place.
      The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!

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      • #4
        A concerted effort to make the non-Japanese believe in the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere would have been a good idea.
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        • #5
          In terms of actually conducting the war Japan should have put considerably more effort into defense than they did and needed to do that much earlier.

          Had they before the war and right from the start of occupation begun construction of heavy defenses on every island they held it could have gotten prohibitively expensive to take them back. Basically, they use fortifications as a force multiplier.

          Several weapons they could have copied from the Germans that would have been highly useful include:

          The M19 Machinengranatwerfer. This 50mm automatic mortar built into a heavy bunker is all but invisible and can throw up to 120 rounds a minute to about 750 meters. It is the ultimate in fortress grenade launchers.

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M19_Maschinengranatwerfer

          Another is the pop up festung flammenwerfer. This pop up flamethrower has a 360 degree field of fire and would make approaching a bunker difficult or impossible (at least as long as the fuel held out).
          Manufacturing more artillery suitable for coast defense or using older obsolescent guns for this also makes sense.
          Fortifying atolls with interlocking fields of fire on more than one island in the group is another.

          Essentially turn each atoll into a mini-Maginot line. This would have only required that the Japanese expand their steel and cement industries prewar to provide the major raw materials for building large bunkers and fortifications.

          I could even see the Japanese doing something like putting in a small LOX plant and using shore based torpedo tubes firing Long Lance. Given the 40,000 yard range of these they give an alternative to guns for coast defense that could have been very effective against an invasion fleet anchored off shore.
          Add a couple of small mine layers and sea mines including command detonated ones and atolls could have gotten very expensive to take.

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          • #6
            The Japanese really needed the ability to Banzai charge with panzerfausts!

            The panzerfaust was effective, easy to mass produce and used black powder. The Germans should have sent the panzerfaust's plans to the Japanese already in 1942, instead of leaving it to the last U boat out of Hamburg in 1945 as in OTL.

            Massed Banzai charges with 1 in 3 Japanese carrying a panzerfaust would have turned quite a few marginal USMC Pacific landings like Tarawa.

            The toll of US tanks and even landing craft would have been total, and the Japanese would've mastered how to use the panzerfaust (and panzerschreck) as an offensive weapon, and for men who are keen and willing to die, US infantry would have suffered greatly.





            What would have been the US counter-tactic?

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            • #7
              John Basilone.
              Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
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              • #8
                I think the panzerwurfmine would be a better bet. Even cheaper and you can hand them out to everybody.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mifletz View Post
                  Although all scenarios end with Japan being nuked around August 1945, with a tweaking of tactics and strategies and luck, despite losing at Midway and Guadalcanal, what is the best possible plausible scenarios for the Japanese 1943-45 until then?
                  You said it already! By 1945 Japan will be nuked and Manchuria will still be overrunned by Soviet Forces. It does not matter what the Japs change. At the end, they will surrender unconditionally...

                  Originally posted by Mifletz View Post
                  (...)
                  e.g. Yamamoto survives, Wingate captured, Chindits wiped out, Imphal and Kohima fall, INA uprising, Calcutta captured, better use of Japanese submarines extracts heavy toll of US shipping beyond Hawaii; Tarawa, Iwo Jima, Okinawa are pyrrhic US victories with swingeing US losses, Phillipines hold on, Marianas "turkey shoot" is a draw, Battles of Leyte Gulf and Samar are Japanese victories, earlier use of Kamikazes inhibits USN movements, heavy losses causes a US moral and manpower crisis causing Roosevelt to plead for Soviet and UK assistance in the Pacific, balloons actually get to cause some plagues and forest fires in the US, Japanese capture & develop their own proximity-fuse AA shells in time to extract a bigger toll of B29s, USS Indiannapolis get torpedoed before unloading the A bomb material, Stalin does not attack in August 1945, I submarine aircraft heavily damage the Panama Canal etc.
                  I think we agree that the Japanese could have altered/achieved one or the other of your suggested changes. But one or the other will not alter the ultimate outcome. The only thing the Jap could have done in 43 is beggin for peace...
                  One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                    You said it already! By 1945 Japan will be nuked and Manchuria will still be overrunned by Soviet Forces. It does not matter what the Japs change. At the end, they will surrender unconditionally...


                    I think we agree that the Japanese could have altered/achieved one or the other of your suggested changes. But one or the other will not alter the ultimate outcome. The only thing the Jap could have done in 43 is beggin for peace...
                    The first elven months of 1941 get more interesting.
                    Fewer Yamatos, more benzene producing Fusun retorts...



                    Take the 1,800,000 tonnes of NEI Oil deal of Sept 1940....

                    http://www.dutcheastindies.webs.com/DEI_oil.html
                    The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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                    • #11
                      Yamamoto had it about summed up when he 'said' that Japan could give the US the run around for a year or so, but that after that all bets were off. He knew the industrial potential of the US, and that Japan could not hope to match it.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                        . At the end, they will surrender unconditionally...
                        In our time line they didn't surrender unconditionally.
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                          In our time line they didn't surrender unconditionally.
                          I think we can scrap that little 'exception' for the feel good....
                          One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                            I think we can scrap that little 'exception' for the feel good....
                            Togo Shigenori wrote that it was the deal maker for the Japanese. I tend to agree.
                            Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                            Hyperwar, Whats New
                            World War II Resources
                            The best place in the world to "work".

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                            • #15
                              Watch a documentary about the Japanese Navy...one historian said that in 1940 the whole world knew the the Japanese could not defeat the United States...in 1941 the Japanese set out to prove they could not defeat the United States and in 1945 they proved they could not defeat the United States. Much my feelings, though it was in question for a time.

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