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France holds 1940

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  • #46
    Originally posted by aodgamer View Post
    It is interesting to game this scenario on , for example, Paradox Interactive's Arsenal of Democracy.

    Let's say the allies resist the initial breakthrough and manage to get dug into good positions along the Meuse and Maginot line which Panzers aren't suited to crossing.

    It's a stalemate but still a better position than Germany found itself in WW1 IMHO. No 2 front war, and Germany is not blockaded. It can procure whatever it needs from the Baltic, the Balkans, neutral Italy, Eastern Europe etc and of course his buddy Joe Stalin will trade siberian riches too - for a price.

    So their raw materials situation isn't bad.
    I'll beg to differ, and that means I also disagree with Gooner here.

    First, Germany is blockaded, at sea.

    In theory, they can receive supplies by land.

    Take the Soviet supplies. In actual history they started flowing in only after France had been trampled over. Until that happened, the Soviets kept claiming they had problems setting the logistics up and delivered really token amounts. Now, Stalin wrote no memoirs, but my guess is that, until it seemed Germany had to attack the best army in the world and the best fortified line in the world, Stalin sure as hell did not want to go out of his way to help them. Only after Hitler won that dice roll Stalin began paying his tribute.

    Neutral Italy and other neutrals could supply stuff, but after a stalemate in France, you can bet the Allies would have gradually tightened the vise on international trade like they did anyway; remember that was the main part of their long-term war plan. Any attempt at importing more stuff than what was needed by Italy itself would have met with the Royal Navy's attentions. Of course Italy could still deliver what it produced itself - which is not a lot. And in turn they would want to get paid.
    Now let's go back to the notion that Germany can be supplied over land. Well, a sizable part of the traffic between Germany and Italy, even though they had a common land border, in 1940 took place... by sea. Indeed a number of Italian coalers were detained and delayed by the Royal Navy when Italy still was a neutral because they came from Germany with German coal aboard.

    The Balkans? But German ascendancy in Hungary and Romania is a child of Germany's victory in the West. These two countries would supply Germany anyway, in the hypothetical situation of a stalemate - but what you said about Stalin would apply here, too: for a price. And Germany was in no condition to pay with valuable currency or gold.
    So what would the Germans pay with? The same things they planned to pay the Soviets with: armaments, high-tech, high-pressure piping for refineries. In other words, it's like having a company fleet of trucks and having to pay for the fuel for them by selling one truck at a time: the fleet doesn't get larger by that.
    Note the British did their best to derail German influence in the Balkans, vide the Yugoslavian coup and the Romanian guarantee. In this scenario, Germany looks way weaker than in actual history. The British, and maybe the USA with real money, will try to outbid the Germans for the Ploesti oil, and Romania will have a possibility to choose.
    That applies to Yugoslavian metals, too.
    Unless, of course, Hitler invades. If he does, he'll get that stuff at much much better conditions - but if he occupies the Balkans, a slice of that manpower superiority is gone, in part forever as KIAs, and more importantly in occupation troops.

    The Baltics? No. They are the Soviets'.

    That leaves the exploitation of Poland, the Protectorate and Slovakia, which is way less than what you assumed above.
    Last edited by Michele; 13 Jun 14, 12:30.


    • #47
      Originally posted by Michele View Post
      .... The British, and maybe the USA with real money, will try to outbid the Germans for the Ploesti oil, and Romania will have a possibility to choose.....
      That reminds me that through 1940 Germany was minor player in Rumania. Italy had invested in Rumanias oil industry, as had US banks. Particularly the Chase Bank of New York, which was owned or controlled by the Rockefellers who also controlled Standard Oil which was a player in developing Rumania s oil. On the up side for Germany the Rockefellers are reputed to have admired the nazis & the Chase Bank had a number of joint ventures with the Reichs Bank.


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