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How would WWII pan out if the Pearl Harbor attack did not happen?

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  • How would WWII pan out if the Pearl Harbor attack did not happen?

    How would WWII pan out if the Pearl Harbor attack did not happen?

    Scenario:

    IJN cancelled the Pearl Harbor attack because the US knew they were coming. Because Japan dared to contemplate an attack on US forces, FDR asked congress to declare war. Declaration of war passed (barely) and the isolationist still pretty much in power.

    How does WWII pan out? Will the US declare war on Germany?

  • #2
    First off, the isolationists were never a majority in Congress.
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    • #3
      Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
      First off, the isolationists were never a majority in Congress.
      But still a power.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
        But still a power.
        One more clique in Congress. They did manage to get the fuel embargoes passed, guaranteeing that the war they wanted to stay out of would happen. Such logic was the reason they failed to be a major power on The Hill.
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        • #5
          Germany overrun Spring/Summer 1944.

          Could make a case for defeat by end of 1943.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
            One more clique in Congress. They did manage to get the fuel embargoes passed, guaranteeing that the war they wanted to stay out of would happen. Such logic was the reason they failed to be a major power on The Hill.
            Without a full backing of the US government and without an enraged population, the US build up for a total war effort will probably not happen. IMO, the war with Japan becomes a limited war with a negotiated settlement.

            An argument could be made that the US war with Germany still happened as that was FDR's intention.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
              Without a full backing of the US government and without an enraged population, the US build up for a total war effort will probably not happen. IMO, the war with Japan becomes a limited war with a negotiated settlement.

              An argument could be made that the US war with Germany still happened as that was FDR's intention.
              The US was gearing up for war despite the isolationists. Part of the trade-off for the oil embargoes was the passage of the Two-Ocean Navy Act. People give the isolationists more clout than they deserved, partly due to the diligent efforts of Wayne Cole, and partly due to the backlash from the Vietnam War.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
                Without a full backing of the US government and without an enraged population, the US build up for a total war effort will probably not happen.
                With all due respect, women were conscripted in Britain since the end of 1941. That is a total war effort.
                Michele

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                • #9
                  And, as I've noted elsewhere here, FDR polled his cabinet on Nov. 6th and got unanimous agreement that he could get a declaration of war through Congress if the Japanese attacked the British colonies in the Far East. (See Cordell Hull's testimony before the PHA and Stimson's diary entry. (Go the Undergrad Library at Purdue, enter and turn right, turn right at the next corner, check the dates on the cabinets to find Nov. 7th, 1941.) (And meet me at the Chocolate Shop after and I'll buy you a beer.))
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                  • #10
                    I suspect it would be much like it actually did turn out. I don't think the USN would race across the Pacific to "rescue" the Philippines even with the fleet intact. The top brass knew the slow battleships were vulnerable and unsuited to operate with carriers even in 1941.

                    I don't think internment of Japanese-Americans would happen and they would have been drafted just like everybody else.
                    The US would still be at war with Japan if the rest of their invasions take place like they did. As for Germany, that depends on Germany. They are going to have to declare war on the US most likely to get an active US involvement beyond what the US was already doing.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                      I suspect it would be much like it actually did turn out. I don't think the USN would race across the Pacific to "rescue" the Philippines even with the fleet intact. The top brass knew the slow battleships were vulnerable and unsuited to operate with carriers even in 1941.
                      Yep, that's Rainbow 5.
                      I don't think internment of Japanese-Americans would happen and they would have been drafted just like everybody else.
                      Good point.
                      The US would still be at war with Japan if the rest of their invasions take place like they did. As for Germany, that depends on Germany. They are going to have to declare war on the US most likely to get an active US involvement beyond what the US was already doing.
                      "Germany First" was the policy since the Atlantic Conference, so I'm sure the US would have declared war on the Axis powers in toto. It didn't happen that way IOTL because Roosevelt was playing the victim card double down.
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                      • #12
                        Hitler is not forced by Axis treaty to declare war on USA, therefore America remains neutral and the war doesn't end until 1947. when the Rusiians still defeat Germany on her own.

                        Death bed last words. Always pay the Legions, Septimius Severus.

                        http://www.greatmilitarybattles.com/...d_war_two.html

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ITALICA ONE View Post
                          Hitler is not forced by Axis treaty to declare war on USA, therefore America remains neutral and the war doesn't end until 1947. when the Rusiians still defeat Germany on her own.
                          You have to poof away the ABC-1 Talks and the Atlantic Conference.
                          Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                          Hyperwar, Whats New
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                          The best place in the world to "work".

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                          • #14
                            A scenario: IJN turns back from Pearl Harbor because detected. Still attacks Hong Kong. U.S. declares war on Japan. Japan quickly occupies Wake island and Midway, which puts America in a strategically worse position except the slow battleships can help deter an attack on Hawaii, if not sunk trying to defend Midway. The Philippines and Singapore captured about the same
                            time frame. Any quick major fleet activity (to defend or retake Midway)tends to favor Japan and prolongs the war or has more U. S. resources diverted to the Pacific.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Michele View Post
                              With all due respect, women were conscripted in Britain since the end of 1941. That is a total war effort.
                              Britain was in total war mode NOT they US. Without a "dastardly attack" by the Japanese as cause, the US population will not be as enraged to call for a general war.

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