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  • And the American part of the equation?

    Dear All,

    Thank you for all your thoughts and contributions in response to my original OP, they are really informative, thanks for the effort you have put into them.

    In my opening post I also posed the question what if Adolf not only delayed Barbarossa but avoided his foolish own goal of declaring war on the United States? If Germany were free of the need to worry about American forces taking an active hand in Europe, would they be able to commit more forces to the invasion of the Soviets Union and would it do 'em any good if they did, or would Roosevelt find a way to swing public opinion round to an American declaration of war against the Third Reich?

    Would any of the above be of lasting (or any) benefit to Germany?
    HONNEUR ET FIDÉLITÉ

    "Believe me, nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won." - Duke of Wellington at Waterloo.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by broderickwells View Post
      You are suffering from some sort of brain malfunction. The oilfields were not "captured", as the Iraqi army did not actually take control of vital infrastructure except one pumping station. There may have been an Iraqi army division in Kirkuk, but it wasn't in charge of any oilfields. Nor was there any fighting around Kirkuk. As for damaging the pipeline - demolition charges. And now you've overlooked the Syrian campaign...
      Really? which pumping station?

      So the 2nd Iraqi division based in Kirkuk to protect the oilfields, did not secure the oilfields in... Kirkuk?

      Of course there was no fighting, THERE WERE NO BRITS TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE NEAR THERE!

      Thats a lot of demolition charges AFTER digging up the pipeline,,,

      Lol no, the Syrian campaign is in June, ITTL the Brits would have a German problem a lot sooner.

      2 brigades = ~10.000 troops (3rd brigade arrived 30 May)
      Glad you finally noticed!

      2.2000 at RAF Habbaniya
      more like 1600, but who cares.

      ~6.000 in Habforce = 18k, or 60%. Yeah, maths's a bitch, but arithmetic is simple.
      Lol, so much fuss just to agree that there were indeed a lot more troops, 40% more as per your own numbers, for the Syrian campaign. Way to recognize you were wrong!

      Shows your ignorance: specifying which city is important if more than one exist. In Britain there are 2 Newcastles.
      Lol, shows me not giving a crap about info absolutly irrelevant to the discussion!

      Let me show you: how many churches in my city?

      Not even I give a crap...

      ...and you want to compare that to not knowing the existence of Tripoli, its refinery and pipeline when discussing ME oil sources in 1941 and Iraqi oil in particular!!!!

      Lol?

      Cross what or whom? The road? The Germans?
      Think about it........... nope? Well...

      This was a problem that kept Ismet Inonu awake at night. He laughed with relief for 10 minutes when Barbarossa was launched. So, no, the answer is not automatically fold under pressure and join the Axis.
      Lol, of course he was worried, his country cant survive an invasion and there was no one able to help, the decision is quite simple which is why when asked by the Germans he only discussed price...

      As I said, the Turks werent dumb, they didnt declare war when Italy invaded France, nor Greece, or when the Germans, Bulgarians and Hungarians did the same to Yugos and Greeks.

      ...yet somehow you expect them to fight once the odds for their survival got absolutely worse?

      Gosh, 3 ferries carrying 25 wagons. Lemme see: dock ferry, unload ferry, load ferry, cast off, transit, dock ferry, unload ferry, load ferry, cast off, transit. I've included "load ferry" because we want the wagons back to send more supplies forward.
      Even assuming a short haul to the other side of the Bosphorus and allowing only 1 hr per round trip, that's only 1800 wagons a day. And at 20T loading, that's 36 kT of supplies.
      How many divisions were you intent on supplying?
      4 at first, even that is overkill for what the Brist had there at the time, and 36.000t a day is a LOT, but that is only theoretical capacity, although even HALF that would be plenty considering that Rommel wanted 60.000t a MONTH in NA.

      Really? They had the awful fear they were going to back the wrong horse a second time. The big debate was which horse would lose, and this was a long term question.
      Lol, of course not, it was a decision between being CRUSHED NOW and MAYBE losing LATER!
      Last edited by JAG; 21 Apr 14, 10:16.
      "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

      - Steven Weinberg

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Scott Fraser View Post
        Dishonest? Grow up.
        It appears to be so.



        Actually, Gooner beat you to it. It is linked elsewhere in this forum, in a thread from last year.
        A year ago... and you still failed to undertand what was being discussed...



        ROFLMAO! Again, there is lots of information about Germany's oilfield recovery organization in previous threads. They spent months at Maikop and got nowhere in restoring the oilfields there. Not enough people, no equipment, poorly supplied, etc.
        Aww, you are so cute! With plenty of time avauilable Stalin ordered the small oilfield to be sabotaged and rendered unusable FOR A YEAR, less or more than that would result on the engineers being executed for... well... sabotage!

        They kept their heads.

        Need I explain the difference?

        See my signature.
        I can already hardly be bothered to answer your posts as it is...



        I made no comparison between the Turkish and Iranian railroads. Read more carefully. I pointed out that the US Army Corps of Engineers put a tremendous effort into upgrading a much shorter line through the mountains of Iran, a project that took them many months to complete. The Americans were numerous, experienced and very well-equipped with abundant supply, something quite beyond what the Germans could provide. The obvious conclusion is that it would take the Germans many more months, if not years, to rebuild Turkey's' railways. That's assuming that they weren't subject to attack by bombers from Egypt, Syria, Armenia or the Crimea.
        Lol no, you just established a paralel... English is my third language, perhaps it is your fifth or sixth?

        Rebuild from what? Sources on the dmaged state of the railroad.

        Nope. Again, there is tons of information on German railways here at ACG.
        So what, this is just about keeping a working railroad working, if not, provide sources.



        The Turkish military is not that important to the outcome. If Turkey opposes the Germans, the Germans are beaten sooner rather than later. If the Turks are as formidable as you seem to think, they may even defeat the Germans all by themselves, but I doubt it. If Turkey joins the Germans, then the Germans will be defeated later. So will the Turks. Like I said, Turkey was between a rock and a hard place. Either way, the Germans are still defeated.
        Lol, I didnt say formidable, I just pointed out that you are as badly informed as ever by claiming their army was negligible, 40+ divisions arent, even if badly armed, they wont beat the Germans in any case, but you still have to shoot at them if they stand.

        Anyway, refer again to my signature. I learned a long time ago not to argue with trolls and idiots. You qualify. I'll leave you alone to fondle your ignorance while you continue to post your foolishness.

        Carry on.
        Scott Fraser
        My dear friend, if something has been proved beyond doubt is that you are very illinformed, thx for saving me the time.
        "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

        - Steven Weinberg

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          None of that makes sense.
          maybe to you, which is usually a symptom of being something far to inconvenient to accept regardlees of its merits...



          The Wehrmacht that had just lost the air battle over England and failed to invade Britain?
          Against a similarly numbered enemy with all the advantages of the defense, hardly surprising.

          The British who had just destroyed the Italian invasion of Egypt, had taken to unprovoked attacks on the Vichy French and were increasing close to the United States?
          ...and by then they had already chased back to Egypt, had pushed the French within a hair of joining the axis and...

          Indeed the US had just promised to underwrite Britains cheques and had publically announced rearmament plans of mind boggling scale.
          ...the last one would be a very good and fitting PoD for this B1942, wouldnt it?
          Last edited by JAG; 21 Apr 14, 09:37.
          "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

          - Steven Weinberg

          Comment


          • Originally posted by JAG View Post
            Really? which pumping station?

            So the 2nd Iraqi division based in Kirkuk to protect the oilfields, did not secure the oilfields in... Kirkuk?

            Of course there was no fighting, THERE WERE NO BRITS TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE NEAR THERE!

            Thats a lot of demolition charges AFTER digging up the pipeline,,,

            Lol no, the Syrian campaign is in June, ITTL the Brits would have a German problem a lot sooner.
            You don't know? Gosh, I thought you knew everything about the Iraqi revolt of 1941. And the Iraqi 2nd div did a great job of securing the oil wells, gave 'em up without a fight. You intend to demolish the entire pipeline?

            The Syrian campaign was directly after the Anglo-Iraqi war (okay, a week's delay). The shooting in the Anglo-Iraq war started a month after the coup. Germany hadn't even invaded Greece on 1 April. So, what Germans where?
            Glad you finally noticed!

            more like 1600, but who cares.



            Lol, so much fuss just to agree that there were indeed a lot more troops, 40% more as per your own numbers, for the Syrian campaign. Way to recognize you were wrong!
            A difference of 16k troops. Huge.
            Lol, shows me not giving a crap about info absolutly irrelevant to the discussion!

            Let me show you: how many churches in my city?

            Not even I give a crap...

            ...and you want to compare that to not knowing the existence of Tripoli, its refinery and pipeline when discussing ME oil sources in 1941 and Iraqi oil in particular!!!!

            Lol?
            Enumerate all the ME refineries extant in 1941, oh learned one.
            Think about it........... nope? Well...
            So you've forgotten what you were going to say? Can't have been important.
            Lol, of course he was worried, his country cant survive an invasion and there was no one able to help, the decision is quite simple which is why when asked by the Germans he only discussed price...

            As I said, the Turks werent dumb, they didnt declare war when Italy invaded France, nor Greece, or when the Germans, Bulgarians and Hungarians did the same to Yugos and Greeks.

            ...yet somehow you expect them to fight once the odds for their survival got absolutely worse?
            The Yugoslavs and the Greeks had the same choices and they fought...
            4 at first, even that is overkill for what the Brist had there at the time, and 36.000t a day is a LOT, but that is only theoretical capacity, although even HALF that would be plenty considering that Rommel wanted 60.000t a MONTH in NA.
            Rommel only had trucks to worry about. You have to feed horses. I'd quote daily WWI demand for Western Front divisions, but they'd wasted on you.
            Lol, of course not, it was a decision between being CRUSHED NOW and MAYBE losing LATER!
            The French zone of occupation in Germany...

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Dogsbody67 View Post
              In my opening post I also posed the question what if Adolf not only delayed Barbarossa but avoided his foolish own goal of declaring war on the United States?
              The US Navy was already at war in the Atlantic in Dec 1941. Germany's declaration of war led to the second uboat happy time that sank a lot of shipping off the US east coast and arguably led to a delay in deploying US forces to Europe.

              The first lend lease protocols with the USSR were signed while the USA was at peace. No change to the timeline there.

              Waiting until the US inevitably declares war sometime in mid to late 1942, just hands initiative firmly to the USA.

              Not declaring war makes a slight pro- Allied change. Maybe VE day is in April rather than May.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by broderickwells View Post
                You don't know? Gosh, I thought you knew everything about the Iraqi revolt of 1941. And the Iraqi 2nd div did a great job of securing the oil wells, gave 'em up without a fight. You intend to demolish the entire pipeline?
                Lol, so you dont know? Is that what you are trying to say by deflecting? Or just to gloss over that you are again wrong about the oilfields?

                So, again, which station? K1? K2? The oilfield pumps? C'mon man, I am dying to know!

                It would be nice to know the source for your claim as well.

                You were the one claiming the oilpipe would be sabotaged, I was just merely noting that it in itself would entail quite a bit of work, how much was damaged would affect how much repair work would be needed, pretty reasonable.

                Regarding my knowledge, man, I at least knew tripoli existed!

                The Syrian campaign was directly after the Anglo-Iraqi war (okay, a week's delay). The shooting in the Anglo-Iraq war started a month after the coup. Germany hadn't even invaded Greece on 1 April. So, what Germans where?
                Marita started 5 days after the coup, 3 days later the Greeks in the Metaxas fortified area surrendered, in 2 more the Yugoeslavs were done with Belgrade falling the next day, the 12th. With the outcome clear you can start getting ready and talking to the Turks...

                One of the elements of Marita were a number of German divisions including 16th Panzer on the Turkish frontier (well, 60Km away) as a security force, so forces were already in place. Another one was the OKW reserve for Marita with 3 panzer and 2 jäger divisions.

                It wouldnt be hard to have troops in there just as the fighting started.

                A difference of 16k troops. Huge.
                Indeed, almost twice the ones used in Iraq... glad you agree.

                Enumerate all the ME refineries extant in 1941, oh learned one.
                Man, did I touch a nerve?

                To what end? And how would that make time go back and make you learn that there was a Tripoli in Lebanon before you started with your ignorant remarks?

                So you've forgotten what you were going to say? Can't have been important.
                Lol no, you were just having one of your incoherence spells...

                The Yugoslavs and the Greeks had the same choices and they fought...
                Lol, they didnt choose to fight, they were invaded!

                The Greeks were invaded by the dumb Italians and kicked their ass, they even refused Brit assistance ar first because they knew "you know whom" would then show up and screw them... and so it happened.

                The poor Yugos, they signed the treaty joining the axis, but the crazied Serbs acted stupidly and trusted the Brit and Russian promises... they even had a treaty signed by the latter... they were destroyed so badly that there was little chance the Turks would even dream of exposing themselves to the same treatment, btw, the Belgrade bombing was a message to them...

                First time Ive seen someone call the Marita walkover as a "fight".

                Rommel only had trucks to worry about. You have to feed horses. I'd quote daily WWI demand for Western Front divisions, but they'd wasted on you.
                Lol, hordes of horses? Panzer and motorized divisions, with maybe a couple Jäger divisions later to assist in Palestine, so few horses.

                Don be so bitter, I know your ferry calculations bit you in the ass, but it will pass, promise...

                Remember the Germans thought that a single track railroad was sufficient to supply 8-10 divisions in combat...

                The French zone of occupation in Germany...
                Oh, Im pretty sure the Turks had that in mind as the Germans crushed the Yugos, the Greeks and kicked the Brits out of Europe, yet again... but I doubt the Turks thought of the French in any other terms than: "the Germans walked over what was supposed to be the best army in Europe."

                But who knows, maybe they would be feeling dangerous and full of fight.
                Last edited by JAG; 21 Apr 14, 23:40.
                "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

                - Steven Weinberg

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Dogsbody67 View Post
                  Dear All,

                  Thank you for all your thoughts and contributions in response to my original OP, they are really informative, thanks for the effort you have put into them.

                  In my opening post I also posed the question what if Adolf not only delayed Barbarossa but avoided his foolish own goal of declaring war on the United States?
                  Maybe there would be a way to prevent the Japanese from attacking, Hitler was egging them to attack the Brits in 1941, now they wont be attacking the USSR, but ITTL it would be best for Germany if Japan keeps its options open and does not sign a non-aggression treaty with Stalin and thus acts as a further deterrent.

                  In the Paris protocols the Germans would commit to securing the French colonies, that would mean disuading the Japanese from attacking Vietnam while making sure no more weapons make it to China, no drive south no oil embargo no need to attack the US.

                  After all, the japs had their plate full with the chinese and would be better-off by attacking no one else...
                  Last edited by JAG; 21 Apr 14, 20:58.
                  "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

                  - Steven Weinberg

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Dogsbody67 View Post
                    would Roosevelt find a way to swing public opinion round to an American declaration of war against the Third Reich?
                    He would. German U-Boote were sinking US Navy warships in the Atlantic, and if the submarine war on the convoys has to continue, they have to continue attacking them. Sooner or later they'll sink one USN destroyer too many for the US public opinion. And that is probably going to happen in the first half of 1942.

                    That does not take into account, however, the state of war between Japan and the USA at that time. I have seen pretty well organized arguments stating that there would be, in the USA a "one war at a time" groundswell.
                    These arguments did not convince me that such a stance would prevent the war against Germany; Roosevelt was dead set on presenting Germany and Japan as a team and many, at the time, did not wish to believe that the Japanese could have organized and executed Pearl Harbor without the help of a European nation.
                    But such a stance would in all likelihood be present and it could certainly be a problem.
                    Michele

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Michele View Post
                      He would. German U-Boote were sinking US Navy warships in the Atlantic, and if the submarine war on the convoys has to continue, they have to continue attacking them. Sooner or later they'll sink one USN destroyer too many for the US public opinion. And that is probably going to happen in the first half of 1942.

                      That does not take into account, however, the state of war between Japan and the USA at that time. I have seen pretty well organized arguments stating that there would be, in the USA a "one war at a time" groundswell.
                      These arguments did not convince me that such a stance would prevent the war against Germany; Roosevelt was dead set on presenting Germany and Japan as a team and many, at the time, did not wish to believe that the Japanese could have organized and executed Pearl Harbor without the help of a European nation.
                      But such a stance would in all likelihood be present and it could certainly be a problem.
                      Agreed, the German declaration of war was more or less a formality so that they could openly oppose the open economic war the US was already engaging in. Looking at Lend Lease from the German perspective they could have justifiably declared war as soon as it passed Congress. Lend Lease did more damage to the Germans by proxy than US forces did up until the beginning of 1943, by then the window of opportunity in the East was well closed.
                      "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
                      -Omar Bradley
                      "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
                      -Anonymous US Army logistician

                      Comment


                      • Roosevelt had done a masterful job of swinging the US public opinion against Germany between 1939-41. FDR actually moved slower and more cautiously than many of his hawkish cabinet members would have liked because he believed the issue must be handled with care. The President knew that not only must US public opinion be brought around to see Germany as *the* threat to US interests but that the US military and industry needed time to mobilise for the fight in Europe and the Atlantic. In this FDR was aided by his civilian/political and military strategists who had identified Germany as the main threat as far back as 1937 and began directing US efforts towards Europe in 1938.

                        Roosevelt's strategy cut the supports from under isolationism one by to the point that by late 1941 it was no longer a major concern. Pearl Harbour was an unwanted distraction to FDRs strategy of seeing to the defeat of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.
                        The Purist

                        Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking - John Maynard Keynes.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Javaman View Post
                          Agreed, the German declaration of war was more or less a formality so that they could openly oppose the open economic war the US was already engaging in. Looking at Lend Lease from the German perspective they could have justifiably declared war as soon as it passed Congress. Lend Lease did more damage to the Germans by proxy than US forces did up until the beginning of 1943, by then the window of opportunity in the East was well closed.
                          That sounds like a great PoD for B1942, realizing the US is trying hard to get in, attempt to KO the Brits before it happens.
                          "'Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."

                          - Steven Weinberg

                          Comment

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