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  • No German-Soviet Commercial Agreement.

    Scenario: Stalin is a little but smarter and decides to just give Hitler a peaceful eastern front. No "free" resources (i put that in quotation marks for a reason). Does Germany even have the capacity to hold in the west.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    Scenario: Stalin is a little but smarter and decides to just give Hitler a peaceful eastern front. No "free" resources (i put that in quotation marks for a reason). Does Germany even have the capacity to hold in the west.
    No. Same problem as before --- oil. Germany relied heavily on imports of Soviet oil after the US embargo and British blockade took effect. Also, the USSR acted as middleman on many transactions for scare strategic materials and transported them across the USSR, including Turkish chrome, rubber from Japan, etc. Soviet assistance after the M-R Pact rather effectively defeated the British blockade.

    Regards
    Scott Fraser
    Ignorance is not the lack of knowledge. It is the refusal to learn.

    A contentedly cantankerous old fart

    Comment


    • #3
      Not in the long run, assuming an average level of hostilities against Britain and any newcomer to the Western/African front, and on the oceans and in the air, and assuming Germany doesn't want to sell weapons and high-tech armament know-how to the USSR.

      There is the fact that without the huge expenditures on the Eastern front, Germany could adopt a strict conservation strategy, and at the same time boost the production of some synthetic materials.

      But even so, the European Axis including the occupied territories are running a food deficit, and you still can't produce synthetic bread from coal.
      Nor can you make war without some other key strategic materials, such as nickel. The only European source that I know of in 1939 was Petsamo, and if the USSR is now at peace with both Finland and Germany, the treaty terms are in effect, and the production of Petsamo doesn't go to Germany. Scott has mentioned chrome, then there was the Soviet manganese etc.

      Naturally, things change if the war goes dormant and if Britain remains alone. Things would also change if Germany is willing to pay the USSR, but the USSR, as I mentioned, wanted arms and arms tech, so Germany would need to curtail its armed forces to do that, and provide advantages to the USSR. The Lützow, for instance, would be delivered complete, and the Soviets would learn things to use in their own shipbuilding. Guns and aircraft would be provided, etc. Lenin would call that selling the rope with which you'll be hanged.
      Michele

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      • #4
        I'll get in before PhilipF Mexican Oil.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Roddoss72 View Post
          I'll get in before PhilipF Mexican Oil.
          Why bother? Nothing has changed. There is still no Mexican oil, nothing to do with politics or diplomacy. After they nationalized their oil, Mexico was blackballed by the oil companies. The Mexicans couldn't ship their oil themselves and all of the international oil companies refused to load it. That was the status quo from 1938 until well after the war started, when the US government instructed the oil companies to relent. Germany still gets no Mexican oil, not under any circumstances.

          Wanna try for Iraqi oil? The Germans did! LOL!

          Regards
          Scott Fraser
          Last edited by Scott Fraser; 12 Nov 13, 03:07.
          Ignorance is not the lack of knowledge. It is the refusal to learn.

          A contentedly cantankerous old fart

          Comment


          • #6
            The Mexican guys, anyway, seem to forget who ruled the seas. The Royal Navy. Even if Mexico and Germany wanted to trade more oil than Germany could drink, and even if Germany could pay for it, no shipment would get through. Simple.
            Michele

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            • #7
              About the oil...

              I hear all this talk of the Mexicans being unable to sell oil to Germany after 1938, but in 1939 the Reich imported 5,165,000 tons of oil. A mere 5,100 tons came from the USSR, and Romania certainly didn't export 5,159,900 tons of oil products to Germany in that year.

              So, where did all this oil come from?

              Edit: Looking at this page, it does appear that the Mexicans exported large amounts of oil to Nazi Germany right up until the British declaration of war on September 3.

              Regards,

              KDF
              Last edited by KDF33; 13 Nov 13, 09:11.

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              • #8
                This is about if the Soviets are not bailing Hitler out can he even fight in the west much less win

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                • #9
                  Well, no German-Soviet commercial agreements won't change the outcome of the BoF.

                  Regards,

                  KDF

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                    I hear all this talk of the Mexicans being unable to sell oil to Germany after 1938, but in 1939 the Reich imported 5,165,000 tons of oil. A mere 5,100 tons came from the USSR, and Romania certainly didn't export 5,159,900 tons of oil products to Germany in that year.

                    So, where did all this oil come from?
                    First, maybe the other posters were not clear enough. Mexico was able to sell oil to Germany.
                    It was seriously hamstrung in shipping it, in the short time frame between the nationalization and September 3 1939. That's because the oil companies wouldn't carry its oil.
                    And, as it should be totally evident, even if Mexico had a huge fleet of tankers of its own, and even if it was awash in oil, and even if Germany had the wherewithal to pay for it (which is pretty dubious), after September 3, 1939, no tanker would bypass the Royal Navy.


                    Edit: Looking at this page, it does appear that the Mexicans exported large amounts of oil to Nazi Germany right up until the British declaration of war on September 3.
                    The page mentions that Nazi Germany was Mexico's first customer in 1938... after the Mexican exports had seen a 50% (!!) decrease, due to the oil companies' boycott.
                    Is a part of 50% is a "large amount"? the page certainly doesn't claim so.
                    Michele

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                    • #11
                      Mexico was the second largest oil producer in the world in 1939.

                      The "tanker embargo" of the oil companies led to a substantial decrease in overall Mexican oil exports, but the proportion going to Germany increased:

                      The foreign-owned oil companies retaliated by instituting an embargo against Mexican oil. Mexican oil exports decreased by 50% and the Mexican Government’s primary customer for oil became Nazi Germany.
                      We're still talking of millions of tons of oil going to Germany here.

                      Obviously, with the start of the blockade on 3.9.39 the flow of Mexican oil was cut. My point is that the assumption that Germany lost Mexico as a supplier before the war started is wrong. On the contrary, the "tanker embargo" led to Mexico sending a larger proportion of it's total oil exports to Germany.

                      Regards,

                      KDF

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                        Mexico was the second largest oil producer in the world in 1939.

                        The "tanker embargo" of the oil companies led to a substantial decrease in overall Mexican oil exports, but the proportion going to Germany increased:



                        We're still talking of millions of tons of oil going to Germany here.

                        Obviously, with the start of the blockade on 3.9.39 the flow of Mexican oil was cut. My point is that the assumption that Germany lost Mexico as a supplier before the war started is wrong. On the contrary, the "tanker embargo" led to Mexico sending a larger proportion of it's total oil exports to Germany.

                        Regards,

                        KDF
                        Pre-1938, the proportion of Mexican oil imported into Germany was ~6%. This rose to ~9.5% in 1939. The major supplier of petroleum to Germany was the USA at ~25%. Germany had tended to use the major oil companies, but a study/crisis in late '38 made them reconsider and also go through brokers. This was the main reason why Mexican oil increases its proportion. But the largest growth was from Venezuela (0% to ~10) and the smaller Caribbean states, which contributed the lion's share of the remaining 35% once the top five supply nations are removed.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                          We're still talking of millions of tons of oil going to Germany here.
                          No, we aren't. We have not seen one positive figure about actual tons of exports to Germany. We've seen percentages and approximate interpretations of them.

                          Actually, if broderickwells' percentage is correct and the Mexican oil imports in 1939 were 9.5% of the German imports of oil, and if we know that Germany imported 5.2 million tons of oil from abroad in 1939, then we are not talking about millions of tons - we are talking about less than 500,000 tons.
                          Michele

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by broderickwells View Post
                            Pre-1938, the proportion of Mexican oil imported into Germany was ~6%. This rose to ~9.5% in 1939. The major supplier of petroleum to Germany was the USA at ~25%. Germany had tended to use the major oil companies, but a study/crisis in late '38 made them reconsider and also go through brokers. This was the main reason why Mexican oil increases its proportion. But the largest growth was from Venezuela (0% to ~10) and the smaller Caribbean states, which contributed the lion's share of the remaining 35% once the top five supply nations are removed.
                            Hello broderick,

                            Are the % figures for total oil supplies or just for imports?

                            So, up until the DoW the U.S. was Germany's main foreign supplier?

                            Regards,

                            KDF

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                              Mexico was the second largest oil producer in the world in 1939.
                              According to whom?

                              The "tanker embargo" of the oil companies led to a substantial decrease in overall Mexican oil exports, but the proportion going to Germany increased:

                              We're still talking of millions of tons of oil going to Germany here.
                              Increased proportionately... from what to what? How much oil was actually delivered?

                              Obviously, with the start of the blockade on 3.9.39 the flow of Mexican oil was cut. My point is that the assumption that Germany lost Mexico as a supplier before the war started is wrong. On the contrary, the "tanker embargo" led to Mexico sending a larger proportion of it's total oil exports to Germany.
                              And will you attempt to slaughter us with data the way you usually do? Start with:

                              How many tankers were in the Mexican fleet?

                              How many tankers were in Germany's fleet?

                              How many tankers did the Spaniards and Italians have that could be seconded to delivering oil to Germany?

                              How much oil was actually shipped?

                              Curious.
                              Scott Fraser
                              Ignorance is not the lack of knowledge. It is the refusal to learn.

                              A contentedly cantankerous old fart

                              Comment

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