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Soviet Invasion of Manchuria in 39

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  • broderickwells
    replied
    Originally posted by Axis of Evil View Post
    Lets look at the two sides

    The IJA is a force made for dense jungles, wetlands and mountain fighting not to menton counter-insurgency duties as such it is equiped with lightly armed infantry along with smaller caliber tanks and artilery designed for infantry support. In short it is a WWI force not prepared to fight mano y mano with a modern force with tanks like the T-34 and and bunch of artillery. The question of air power does come into play espeially once the IJN comes into the picture

    I do believe that after some bloody fighting and heavy losses the Red Army takes over Manchuria/Manchukuo. Korea is where things get interesting. It is very mountianous and exactly "take country". If we look at Iwo Jima, Okinawa Saipan among others the Japanese were very good at producing huge losses in defensive battles and could hold such places without resupply for a very long time. That is also where the IJN comes in. Not only with air power but also sea power. Those big guns on the battleships and heavy cruisers (not to mention smaller vessels) can do massive amounts of damage to the Red Army. The Japanese pilots both naval and land based are much better trained and fly better aircaft.

    In short would the Red Army take Manchuria? yes! would they take Korea maybe. Would they take the home islands? not a chance in hell. This turns into a mixed blessing for the USSR who would have much more natural resources for the war against Germany but will have taken heavy losses with the possiblity of Japan wanting its land back...
    The IJN will only be useful in an artillery support role very close to the coast. The effective limit wil be about 10 miles inland. In 1939-40, Soviet and Japanese aviation were on a par, with the advantage oscillating between the VVS and the IJA. At Khalkkin Gol, the VVS had the advantage with the cannon armed I-16 but it took a while.

    As I said earlier - both sides are going to be pushing string once they outrun their logistical support, and that's going to be a lot earlier than either may admit.

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    Stalin can go tell hitler to shove it what will adolf do invade in 39

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  • Javaman
    replied
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    It is logic Stalin is fighting the Chief Axis power in the Pacific is he really going to stuff Germany to the gill's with his resources.
    Considering the Nazi-Soviet pact was signed prior to this ATL and that it created a buffer zone for the SU and a 10 year non-aggression guarantee my guess is Stalin not only honors it but sweetens the deal if he is at war with Japan.

    As for the rest of this about the Soviets conquering Manchuria in either 1939 or 1940

    Take a look at this map:
    http://sunnycv.com/steve/USPics3/56390.jpg

    Note where Tsitsihar and Harbin are in relation to how far they are from the Trans-Siberian RR. There is NO WAY the Red Army of 1939-40 can cover over 200 miles and strike the Japanese at their strongest points of resistance with sufficient strength to take them. The Red Army's tanks of this period will have broken down long ago. Please note that the Soviet tank formations of June-July 1941 failed to cover a fraction of that distance before dissolving in space due to EXTREMELY poor combined arms support.

    The Red Army of 1939-40 is NOT the Red Army of 1945 in any way, shape or form. Most of the Soviet tanks could not make that 200 mile distance on a peacetime road march, let alone against fierce resistance and counter-attacks.

    Also of note is the proximity of Vladivostok to Japan (and the IJN). Which....taking into account the blockade concept
    How valuable does that Nazi-Soviet pact look now? (considering the economic prospects of isolation)

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    No resources from Stalin = Much weaker Whermacht = no Barbarossa.

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  • Hanov
    replied
    AFAIK Stalin "stuffed Germany to the gill's with his resources" to fullfil their Pact and to buy time because he didn't see his Army fit to contest the Wehrmacht yet. And because of that he did not entangle his Army in another War with another Major power. But IF he would have done so (in this ATL), the Soviet Union would IMO have been doomed...

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  • Philip F
    replied
    Stalin made the correct choice not to get involved with the Japanese with the Germans on his doorstep.

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    It is logic Stalin is fighting the Chief Axis power in the Pacific is he really going to stuff Germany to the gill's with his resources.

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  • Hanov
    replied
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    The Japanese Navy has been spending massive and i mean massive amounts of its resources into building a Navy that can go up against the RN and USN. And speaking of which if Stalin is going ot be hostile from the start you can kiss those massive and i mean massive amounts of resources that got given to Mr.Hitler. Without out all of these resources means German economy collapses 1940. Hell they might not even knock out France. Definitely are not going to see the Heer of 1941 looking like it did.
    Nice backdoor try! I did not know that this (breaking the Pact) was part of this ATL... And that Germany collapses... I thought this thread was about if the Reds should hve gone for the Japs in order to be better of in Barbarossa, wasn't it?

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    The Japanese Navy has been spending massive and i mean massive amounts of its resources into building a Navy that can go up against the RN and USN. And speaking of which if Stalin is going ot be hostile from the start you can kiss those massive and i mean massive amounts of resources that got given to Mr.Hitler. Without out all of these resources means German economy collapses 1940. Hell they might not even knock out France. Definitely are not going to see the Heer of 1941 looking like it did.

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  • Hanov
    replied
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    From what i recall Khalkin Gol ended mid september Barbarossa began in June 22nd 1941. Unless your suggesting the Japanese hold out for two years then not much is going to change except us having a more battle hardened Red Army a busted up and broken IJA a Japan that is completely unready for modern warfare and the remember the Japanese attacked first
    OK. Lets assume the Red Army decides to go for it after Khalkin Gol.
    How long does it take to bring in those hundreds of thousands or even million troops, equipment, supplies, fuel and whatever required for such an offensive?
    Months? Half a year? Now it's early 1940... The Japs are not blind. They reinforced and prepared for such an offensive by now. I suggest that the Soviets are out of breath, supply, fuel and everything before they reach half of their objectives. Dead soldiers are not hardened up. The survivors are demoralized unless victorious.
    And: they are on the wrong side of the World. Because as soon as the Japs stop the Soviet advance they'll go after them... they can't just say "Hey sorry we got another war to fight now. One for survival." they are committed. The only chance would be a peace treaty...
    Last edited by Hanov; 29 Oct 13, 16:53.

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  • Hanov
    replied
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    I would like to point a couple things out
    1. If anything the Soviets are more prepared for Adolf due to two years of being at war and getting back in step.
    If they get back... maybe they just get beaten up. IMO they would be weakened. The Luftwaffe wasn't stronger through the BoB either. They just had 2600 Aircraft less, that were missing in Barbarossa.

    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    2. Remember what led to that impression of "Weak Red Army" was Finland and the Soviets ****-poor showing in that war. Them stomping the Japanese is going to give Hitler something to think about.
    I seriously doubt that the Army that had troubles to defeat a minor Country at its Front Door could easily defeat a Major Power on the other side of the globe that had millions of experienced troops at hand (fighting in China for over two years then)...

    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    3. If the Soviets are able to take Manchuria. Japan's situation in China comes untenable. Tell me more how they are going to supply them
    In the worst case they stop being offensive there until the threat in the North is banned.

    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    4. Yes the Soviets will take heavy losses but so will the Japanese and the latter is going to have absolute hell replacing them
    And the former is probably going to loose against Mr. Hitler due to those heavy losses. Mr. Stalin is now the one in a 2 Front War. And the rest of the world likes him even less than they did historically (still Lend-Lease?)

    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    5. The shipbuilding program that Japan has to compete with America is in full swing. You cant throw that out in the couple months that this invasion will take and start making tanks and artillery.
    Oh, I did not know that the Japanese had the intention to go to War with the US in 1939. In fact they did so because they ran out of Oil due to an US embargo - exactly that Embargo would IMO not have been imposed in this ATL.

    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    6. Yes it's going to be slower and alot bloodier but if they neutralize the Japanese for good then there going to be in a lot better shape for Barbarossa. Remember every sent west fight the Germans was replaced by units to watch the Japanese in this case there is no need
    And how could the leaderless, poorly organised Red Army of 1939 that needed months to defeat tiny little Finland right in front of Leningrad with over a million troops involved possibly defeat the Japanese Army on the other side of the World? Against one of the most modern and largest Air Forces in the World by then?
    Last edited by Hanov; 29 Oct 13, 16:49.

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    From what i recall Khalkin Gol ended mid september Barbarossa began in June 22nd 1941. Unless your suggesting the Japanese hold out for two years then not much is going to change except us having a more battle hardened Red Army a busted up and broken IJA a Japan that is completely unready for modern warfare and the remember the Japanese attacked first

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  • Hanov
    replied
    Originally posted by Axis of Evil View Post
    He did that after Kiev.... wasn't laughing after Stalingrad though.
    That is true, but IMO the Soviets could not have taken Manchuria that easily.
    No T-34 in 1939. No decent motorized troops. Two narrow supply lines (Railway) that could have been easily disrupted. An even worse leadership situation than in 41. They maybe could have taken Manchuria when commiting lots of troops. But that would IMO not have happened in a few months.
    It would have cost the Soviets dearly and they would have paid the price in 1941.
    Do you think the US would have employed their Oil Embargo when the Soviets are about to conquer Manchuria...? Mao? Chiang kai-shek? Everything would have been different! Maybe the German assault on the Soviet Union would have been welcomed? In this ATL Stalin is the one unleashing a War (first).

    I also doubt that the Soviets could profit from the Manchurian ressources that quickly.

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  • Lionhearti
    replied
    I would like to point a couple things out
    1. If anything the Soviets are more prepared for Adolf due to two years of being at war and getting back in step.
    2. Remember what led to that impression of "Weak Red Army" was Finland and the Soviets ****-poor showing in that war. Them stomping the Japanese is going to give Hitler something to think about.
    3. If the Soviets are able to take Manchuria. Japan's situation in China comes untenable. Tell me more how they are going to supply them
    4. Yes the Soviets will take heavy losses but so will the Japanese and the latter is going to have absolute hell replacing them
    5. The shipbuilding program that Japan has to compete with America is in full swing. You cant throw that out in the couple months that this invasion will take and start making tanks and artillery.
    6. Yes it's going to be slower and alot bloodier but if they neutralize the Japanese for good then there going to be in a lot better shape for Barbarossa. Remember every sent west fight the Germans was replaced by units to watch the Japanese in this case there is no need

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  • Axis of Evil
    replied
    Originally posted by Hanov View Post
    Adolf his a** off...
    He did that after Kiev.... wasn't laughing after Stalingrad though.

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