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Soviet Invasion of Manchuria in 39

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  • #46
    No resources from Stalin = Much weaker Whermacht = no Barbarossa.


    • #47
      Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
      It is logic Stalin is fighting the Chief Axis power in the Pacific is he really going to stuff Germany to the gill's with his resources.
      Considering the Nazi-Soviet pact was signed prior to this ATL and that it created a buffer zone for the SU and a 10 year non-aggression guarantee my guess is Stalin not only honors it but sweetens the deal if he is at war with Japan.

      As for the rest of this about the Soviets conquering Manchuria in either 1939 or 1940

      Take a look at this map:

      Note where Tsitsihar and Harbin are in relation to how far they are from the Trans-Siberian RR. There is NO WAY the Red Army of 1939-40 can cover over 200 miles and strike the Japanese at their strongest points of resistance with sufficient strength to take them. The Red Army's tanks of this period will have broken down long ago. Please note that the Soviet tank formations of June-July 1941 failed to cover a fraction of that distance before dissolving in space due to EXTREMELY poor combined arms support.

      The Red Army of 1939-40 is NOT the Red Army of 1945 in any way, shape or form. Most of the Soviet tanks could not make that 200 mile distance on a peacetime road march, let alone against fierce resistance and counter-attacks.

      Also of note is the proximity of Vladivostok to Japan (and the IJN). Which....taking into account the blockade concept
      How valuable does that Nazi-Soviet pact look now? (considering the economic prospects of isolation)
      "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
      -Omar Bradley
      "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
      -Anonymous US Army logistician


      • #48
        Stalin can go tell hitler to shove it what will adolf do invade in 39


        • #49
          Originally posted by Axis of Evil View Post
          Lets look at the two sides

          The IJA is a force made for dense jungles, wetlands and mountain fighting not to menton counter-insurgency duties as such it is equiped with lightly armed infantry along with smaller caliber tanks and artilery designed for infantry support. In short it is a WWI force not prepared to fight mano y mano with a modern force with tanks like the T-34 and and bunch of artillery. The question of air power does come into play espeially once the IJN comes into the picture

          I do believe that after some bloody fighting and heavy losses the Red Army takes over Manchuria/Manchukuo. Korea is where things get interesting. It is very mountianous and exactly "take country". If we look at Iwo Jima, Okinawa Saipan among others the Japanese were very good at producing huge losses in defensive battles and could hold such places without resupply for a very long time. That is also where the IJN comes in. Not only with air power but also sea power. Those big guns on the battleships and heavy cruisers (not to mention smaller vessels) can do massive amounts of damage to the Red Army. The Japanese pilots both naval and land based are much better trained and fly better aircaft.

          In short would the Red Army take Manchuria? yes! would they take Korea maybe. Would they take the home islands? not a chance in hell. This turns into a mixed blessing for the USSR who would have much more natural resources for the war against Germany but will have taken heavy losses with the possiblity of Japan wanting its land back...
          The IJN will only be useful in an artillery support role very close to the coast. The effective limit wil be about 10 miles inland. In 1939-40, Soviet and Japanese aviation were on a par, with the advantage oscillating between the VVS and the IJA. At Khalkkin Gol, the VVS had the advantage with the cannon armed I-16 but it took a while.

          As I said earlier - both sides are going to be pushing string once they outrun their logistical support, and that's going to be a lot earlier than either may admit.


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