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Soviet Invasion of Manchuria in 39

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  • #16
    Considering that the Japanese are going to be fighting a TWO front war does not seem likely. And hell why not Soviets stomp the Japanese even worse in 1940

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    • #17
      Because you assume the Soviet Forces of 1940 as strong as the 1945 forces.
      But they are rubbish! Also you assume the 1940 Japs as weak as the 1945 Japs. This scenario would probably have ended either in a humiliating Soviet retreat from Manchuria or a successful Barbarossa!
      One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
        That goes w/o saying.

        Now, before you guys get all excited about how many Divisions the Russians could have thrown at about 20 Japanese Divisions, you need to see how much larger the Japanese formations were.

        http://www.bayonetstrength.150m.com/..._battalion.htm

        Take a look, that's about 1600 men in a Battalion.
        What was a Red Army Battalion at that time?

        Also, every time we talk about a Japanese attack in 1941 the bad terrain over much of that border comes up. Keep in mind that if you are operating after Khalkin-Gol was over, that means that most of the Summer is over, and you are looking at a major offensive with winter closing in.

        And, if anything goes wrong, and a lot will, operations against Finland in 1939 become questionable. Seizing Moldova and the Baltic States in 1940 might also be a problem.

        Things will go wrong. This is not 1945, when even the Korean Privates knew that it was over. You can expect tenacious Japanese resistance at every point they choose to fight at. Their AT weapons will be effective against the T-26 and BT-7 types that are the bulk of the armor you have to throw against them. Your only saving grace will be the T-28, the only tank in the world (besides the Mark IV) with a turret-mounted 3" howitzer... and its big and not heavy on armor like you think it would be.

        Air superiority? The issue will be in doubt, especially once the IJN gets involved.

        Worst case for the USSR; you go all the way to Peking and maybe Pusan, and come 1941 you are still enmeshed with in a struggle with Japan (surrender? DIE FOOL!) with a million or more men and 3-6,000 tanks absent from the west when Hitler strikes.
        Game over.
        This is what Stalin feared hence he made peace with the Japanese in 1939.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
          Considering that the Japanese are going to be fighting a TWO front war does not seem likely. And hell why not Soviets stomp the Japanese even worse in 1940
          They will be in a one front war.

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          • #20
            The biggest problem for the Soviets is that they will have to commit as many as 50 divisions to the operation to really be successful. Casualties will not be light and even when successful they will have to supply and garrison their new territories with a good number of divisions. They will also have to build additional infrastructure to supply them as the rail connections from Russia are minimal.
            All that is a huge drain of manpower and material from European Russia, leaving them with a serious problem there.

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            • #21
              Im not saying it will be easy. But the Japanese are still fighting the Chinese.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                Im not saying it will be easy. But the Japanese are still fighting the Chinese.
                That's right and it would cause the IJA more than a headache!
                Depending of the seriousness of the Soviet Attack the Japanese would have to reinforce their Manchurian troops, in the worst case they would even have to extract troops from the Chinese front which could mean more than a setback there...
                But the bigger the Soviet commitment, the worse it will get for them in 1941 when these troops are missing on the Border to Germany.
                It could also mean that the US won't employ their Oil Embargo, which was IMO the seed for Pearl Harbor...
                One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                  That's right and it would cause the IJA more than a headache!
                  Depending of the seriousness of the Soviet Attack the Japanese would have to reinforce their Manchurian troops, in the worst case they would even have to extract troops from the Chinese front which could mean more than a setback there...
                  Not really. By 1940 the Chinese were doing nothing but retreating. All the Japanese would have to do is suspend offensive operations and swing half their troops around to the north. Rail-heading them up there would probably be easier than shipping them in from Japan.
                  Those 70 Soviet Subs might have caused problems, but only for a little while. They only had the one base, and their performance elsewhere in WW2 was not very impressive.

                  Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                  But the bigger the Soviet commitment, the worse it will get for them in 1941 when these troops are missing on the Border to Germany.
                  It could also mean that the US won't employ their Oil Embargo, which was IMO the seed for Pearl Harbor...
                  Maybe... and if it gets too crazy too quickly, we could see a very different WW2. Japan on the Allied side, and the USSR with the Axis?

                  Hmmm...

                  The Tripartite Pact wasn't signed until November of 1940, when the USSR was serving as Germany's way around the UK blockade. If in the preceding year things got crazy enough ... Japan withdraws from lower China to save Manchuria, giving the US an excuse to ease up a little. Roosevelt looses his re-election bid and is replaced by a President more sympathetic to Japan than to the Soviets.
                  Meh... getting too far off track already.
                  Last edited by The Exorcist; 28 Oct 13, 13:59.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
                    Maybe... and if it gets too crazy too quickly, we could see a very different WW2. Japan on the Allied side, and the USSR with the Axis?

                    Hmmm...

                    The Tripartite Pact wasn't signed until November of 1940, when the USSR was serving as Germany's way around the UK blockade. If in the preceding year things got crazy enough ... Japan withdraws from lower China to save Manchuria, giving the US an excuse to ease up a little. Roosevelt looses his re-election bid and is replaced by a President more sympathetic to Japan than to the Soviets.
                    Meh... getting too far off track already.
                    Absolutely not too far off track!
                    If the Soviets would have started the War prior to or parallel to the German attack on Poland, IMO these are exactly the questions one has to ask. I think it would have changed WW2 completely. I doubt that Hitler would have allied with the USSR because he was obsessed with Lebensraum but Barbarossa would have been very different and i seriously doubt that there would have been a Pacific War as we know it today.
                    Last edited by Hanov; 28 Oct 13, 15:01. Reason: grammar...
                    One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                    • #25
                      All things considered the Red Army wouldn't get as far as people seem to believe. The strength of the Red Army relative to the Kwantung Army in late 1939 isn't the issue, it's what the Red Army could project and support beyond the Trans-Siberian railroad into the depths of Manchuria against a very strong and healthy Kwantung Army. Personally I'd say at the 200km depth point the Soviets are exhausted and stalemate or retreat happens. The Soviets lacked the ability to sustain a major offensive effort in late 1939. Qualitatively speaking Japanese Infantry divisions were superior to Russian Infantry divisions and thats not even speaking of the size differential. So once the Soviet mechanization is heavily attrited from breakdown and combat, you get stalemate. There were no LL Studebakers in 1939.
                      "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
                      -Omar Bradley
                      "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
                      -Anonymous US Army logistician

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Javaman View Post
                        All things considered the Red Army wouldn't get as far as people seem to believe. The strength of the Red Army relative to the Kwantung Army in late 1939 isn't the issue, it's what the Red Army could project and support beyond the Trans-Siberian railroad into the depths of Manchuria against a very strong and healthy Kwantung Army. Personally I'd say at the 200km depth point the Soviets are exhausted and stalemate or retreat happens. The Soviets lacked the ability to sustain a major offensive effort in late 1939. Qualitatively speaking Japanese Infantry divisions were superior to Russian Infantry divisions and thats not even speaking of the size differential. So once the Soviet mechanization is heavily attrited from breakdown and combat, you get stalemate. There were no LL Studebakers in 1939.
                        Yup!
                        One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                        • #27
                          I wouldnt say the kwantung army is super healthy after over two years of war with the chinese

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                            I wouldnt say the kwantung army is super healthy after over two years of war with the chinese
                            I think you mix some things up. The Kwantung Army wasn't there to fight the Chinese but to defend Manchuria from the Soviets. They were everything but exhausted...
                            One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                            • #29
                              True but still the Japanese arent exactly ready to fight a two front war against a country they cant really beat and a country they they have no chance of beating

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Hanov View Post
                                I think you mix some things up. The Kwantung Army wasn't there to fight the Chinese but to defend Manchuria from the Soviets. They were everything but exhausted...
                                Exactly, close to 1.3 million strong with some of the best Infantry divisions in the IJA.

                                Curious, why isn't anyone mentioning how Japan would react to a major invasion? Reinforcements from Japan, stripping forces from China, IJN attacks Soviet Pacific coast???
                                "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
                                -Omar Bradley
                                "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
                                -Anonymous US Army logistician

                                Comment

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