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Soviet Invasion of Manchuria in 39

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  • Soviet Invasion of Manchuria in 39

    What if Stalin decides to permanently take care of the Far Eastern problem in 39. Can the Red Army do it they humiliated the Japanese in 39 already. What would Germany do revoke the MR pact. It would give the Soviets proper knowledge on how to really conduct offensive operations. If Japan was (really) neutralized it allows Stalin to transfer a lot more resources to the Eastern Front with little need to replace them like he did in OTL.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
    What if Stalin decides to permanently take care of the Far Eastern problem in 39. Can the Red Army do it they humiliated the Japanese in 39 already. What would Germany do revoke the MR pact. It would give the Soviets proper knowledge on how to really conduct offensive operations. If Japan was (really) neutralized it allows Stalin to transfer a lot more resources to the Eastern Front with little need to replace them like he did in OTL.
    They may be able to overrun Manchuria and maybe even Korea.
    But I doubt they could invade Japan with Japans naval and air strength.

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    • #3
      I would say that they likely could have overrun most of Manchuria and Korea. The two problems come in the form of having to then occupy these areas and with the amount of forces involved to even do this.
      At Khalikin Gol the Russians pushed in the equivalent of a reinforced mechanized / tank corps against initially a single Japanese infantry division.
      The Japanese were decisively beaten after about a month of fighting with heavy losses, very heavy losses on both sides.

      In the long term, this would potentially have cost Russia the war in the West versus Germany simply through the much larger amount of forces stuck in Asia.

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      • #4
        It would have turned into a meat grinder for both: Soviet equipment was moderately better than Japenese in 1939, but not staggeringly so, and the Soviet officer corps had yet to learn the important lessons of WWII. Conversely, the Kwangtung army was a better unit in 1939 than '45 and would have offered much stiffer resistance. However, the Red Army would have been in better form against the Germans than they were in OTL and probably better deployed, if only because they had to be. They may even have received more radios.

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        • #5
          The Strike North Group may become dominant in Japan if the Japanese lost Manchuria and Korea.
          The Japanese would then invest far more in armour than in shipping and likely attack the USSR in 1942.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Philip F View Post
            The Strike North Group may become dominant in Japan if the Japanese lost Manchuria and Korea.
            The Japanese would then invest far more in armour than in shipping and likely attack the USSR in 1942.
            Were the hell could the japanese land in 42 if they lost manchuria and korea as soon as they are booted off the mainland they are not coming back period

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
              Were the hell could the japanese land in 42 if they lost manchuria and korea as soon as they are booted off the mainland they are not coming back period
              Korea or opposite Sakhalin Island would be the most obvious jump off points.

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              • #8
                against the soviets and chinese with most of there army captured or killed Manchuria and Korea in Soviet hands means no supplies go to the massive army in China. Sorry Japan was in a world of hurt had stalin not walked away in 39

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                  against the soviets and chinese with most of there army captured or killed Manchuria and Korea in Soviet hands means no supplies go to the massive army in China. Sorry Japan was in a world of hurt had stalin not walked away in 39
                  If by your own post the army was captured in Korea then would they not be a great deal of supplies to go to the Japanese forces in China?
                  However let us say the attack was in full force in 1939.
                  I can see the Soviets taking Manchuria and the Japanese taking Sakhalin Island.
                  Offensive operations in China would likely be suspended.
                  In 1940 the Soviets may well if they are lucky manage to take Korea.
                  The Japanese may will also be pushed out of much of China.
                  However once the Germans invade the USSR the Japanese would be back in the summer of 1942.

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                  • #10
                    with what resources Manchuria was vital to the Japanese economy. Also are you saying that Japan stays away from America and the West in this TL

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                      with what resources Manchuria was vital to the Japanese economy. Also are you saying that Japan stays away from America and the West in this TL
                      Do you think the Japanese would go for Pearl Harbor when they're in a war/conflict with the USSR? I seriously doubt that. There probably would be no need to go to War... The US Oil Embargo would not be likely to be imposed on Japan in this ATL.

                      I think this ATL could break the neck of the USSR. Depending on the fierceness of fighting vs the Japanese.
                      One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                        with what resources Manchuria was vital to the Japanese economy. Also are you saying that Japan stays away from America and the West in this TL
                        Japan imports most of its resources and yes the Japanese would go North here and not South.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Philip F View Post
                          Japan imports most of its resources and yes the Japanese would go North here and not South.
                          That goes w/o saying.

                          Now, before you guys get all excited about how many Divisions the Russians could have thrown at about 20 Japanese Divisions, you need to see how much larger the Japanese formations were.

                          One description that continually shows up in Allied reports on the Japanese is the Strengthened Infantry Battalion. This was said to be part of the Type "A" Division, which included additional artillery and was thought to be specifically designed for 'continental' operations as a direct result of experience against the Red Army.
                          http://www.bayonetstrength.150m.com/..._battalion.htm

                          Take a look, that's about 1600 men in a Battalion.
                          What was a Red Army Battalion at that time?

                          Also, every time we talk about a Japanese attack in 1941 the bad terrain over much of that border comes up. Keep in mind that if you are operating after Khalkin-Gol was over, that means that most of the Summer is over, and you are looking at a major offensive with winter closing in.

                          And, if anything goes wrong, and a lot will, operations against Finland in 1939 become questionable. Seizing Moldova and the Baltic States in 1940 might also be a problem.

                          Things will go wrong. This is not 1945, when even the Korean Privates knew that it was over. You can expect tenacious Japanese resistance at every point they choose to fight at. Their AT weapons will be effective against the T-26 and BT-7 types that are the bulk of the armor you have to throw against them. Your only saving grace will be the T-28, the only tank in the world (besides the Mark IV) with a turret-mounted 3" howitzer... and its big and not heavy on armor like you think it would be.

                          Air superiority? The issue will be in doubt, especially once the IJN gets involved.

                          Worst case for the USSR; you go all the way to Peking and maybe Pusan, and come 1941 you are still enmeshed with in a struggle with Japan (surrender? DIE FOOL!) with a million or more men and 3-6,000 tanks absent from the west when Hitler strikes.
                          Game over.
                          "Why is the Rum gone?"

                          -Captain Jack

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                          • #14
                            assuming that the Japanese are taking two years to fall down. Also the Soviets are going down regardless.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lionhearti View Post
                              assuming that the Japanese are taking two years to fall down. Also the Soviets are going down regardless.
                              Odd statement.
                              The Japanese are not assured of falling down at all, no more than the Finns.

                              Look, you are assuming that the the success obtained in August of 39' will encourage Stalin to go for all of Manchuria. So, how soon can they start, and with what, exactly?
                              What they had on hand gave them no numerical advantage except in tanks, not a good way to start an offensive. So, rail-head another 30 Divisions by the end of September, maybe?
                              Bad weather and getting worse by the day, a 1.5 over-all advantage, questionable air coverage and a huge front to cover.
                              What could go wrong, eh?

                              Maybe you should wait for 1940.
                              "Why is the Rum gone?"

                              -Captain Jack

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