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Isolationist USA means German victory in the East?

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  • Isolationist USA means German victory in the East?

    November 5 1940:

    A different President gets elected. Under his leadership, the USA adopts a more isolationist policy. Other foreign policy matters are handled such that Japan does not attack Pearl Harbor. The USA stays out of the European war and there is no Lend-Lease. Otherwise, the war with Britain is essentially as per the historical; and Germany invades the Soviet Union in the historical month (June 1941).

    Yes, there are some implausibilities and/or flaws in this scenario but the intention is to consider how differently the war might have played out without the USA on the Allied side; in other words, a ‘hypothetical’ much like many others in Alternate Timelines.

    So now, the question:

    In terms of the German/Soviet conflict, what do you think would be the most likely outcome?

    Please select the option that comes closest to your opinion. You are also invited to discuss your reasoning.
    76
    Complete German victory is certain
    5.26%
    4
    Almost certain German victory
    6.58%
    5
    Probable German victory
    15.79%
    12
    German victory somewhat more likely
    6.58%
    5
    Limited German victory
    6.58%
    5
    Stalemate is very likely
    13.16%
    10
    Limited Soviet victory
    7.89%
    6
    Soviet victory somewhat more likely
    0.00%
    0
    Probable Soviet victory
    11.84%
    9
    Almost certain Soviet victory
    17.11%
    13
    Complete Soviet victory is certain
    6.58%
    5
    Other (please explain)
    2.63%
    2

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by panther3485; 20 Apr 13, 11:53.
    "England expects that every man will do his duty!" (English crew members had better get ready for a tough fight against the combined French and Spanish fleets because that's what England expects! However, Scotland, Wales and Ireland appear to expect nothing so the Scottish, Welsh and Irish crew members can relax below decks if they like!)

  • #2
    Well. . .There is no Tizard Mission, and no Arcadia Conference.. . .

    The USSR gets British research from the 'Tube Alloy's project, centimentric radar, the Enigma decrypts and Colossus, Penicillin, and a lot more.

    Lend lease is a hard one. It's difficult to see US business not giving credit to the UK (like the First War) for purely financial reasons. Lend lease was not the result of US 'altruism' but rather a way for US manufacturers to get round the legal system so they could sell arms and make money.

    Germany loses - if not on the battlefield, then probably to a Soviet Nuke.

    The Brits knew how to design the bomb and with the Russians would of thrown everything into it.
    Last edited by albanaich; 20 Apr 13, 12:30.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by albanaich View Post
      Well. . .There is no Tizard Mission, and no Arcadia Conference.. . .

      The USSR gets British research from the 'Tube Alloy's project, centimentric radar, the Enigma decrypts and Colossus, Penicillin, and a lot more.

      Lend lease is a hard one. It's difficult to see US business not giving credit to the UK (like the First War) for purely financial reasons. Lend lease was not the result of US 'altruism' but rather a way for US manufacturers to get round the legal system so they could sell arms and make money.

      Germany loses - if not on the battlefield, then probably to a Soviet Nuke.
      No Lend-Lease doesn't mean goods from the USA are not available; simply that the Lend-Lease act (or any other act/measures with similar provisions) isn't passed. The British can still purchase from the USA; or trade I suppose. We might speculate as to the terms; but the intent of this alternate scenario is that terms as 'generous' and bountiful as those provided under Lend-Lease are not available.
      "England expects that every man will do his duty!" (English crew members had better get ready for a tough fight against the combined French and Spanish fleets because that's what England expects! However, Scotland, Wales and Ireland appear to expect nothing so the Scottish, Welsh and Irish crew members can relax below decks if they like!)

      Comment


      • #4
        I selected "Probable German victory".

        Depending on the outcome of the 1942 campaign in the East, I either see:

        A) Succesful German defense over the winter. The Germans attack again in spring 1943, decisively breaking the Soviet advantage in manpower. The war in the East is effectively over by the end of 1944 / early 1945.

        B) Stalingrad happens as per the OTL. The absence of the American contribution in the West prevents the fall of Mussolini and keeps Italy in the war. The additional manpower / Luftwaffe assets stop the Soviet offensive either on the July 1943 frontline or somewhere in the Ukraine. After that, the balance of forces gradually shift towards the Germans. The USSR is effectively defeated by the end of 1945 / early 1946.

        Also, to albanaich,

        Soviet development of a nuke in wartime is an absolute fantasy.

        Comment


        • #5
          No Lend-Lease doesn't mean goods from the USA are not available; simply that the Lend-Lease act (or any other act with the same provisions) isn't passed. The British can still purchase from the USA; or trade I suppose. We might speculate as to the terms; but the intent of this alternate scenario is that terms as 'generous' and bountiful as those provided under Lend-Lease are not available.
          Exactly. British / Soviets (or Germans, if they could) can buy from the U.S.A., but from their own pocket, with their own ships and with their own escorts.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by KDF33 View Post

            Soviet development of a nuke in wartime is an absolute fantasy.
            As is a German victory.
            Кто там?
            Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
            Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

            Comment


            • #7
              As is a German victory.
              I'm up to debating that. Would you mind elaborating?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                I'm up to debating that. Would you mind elaborating?
                Did Germany defeat the Soviet Union?
                Кто там?
                Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Did Germany defeat the Soviet Union?
                  Did the U.S. stay out of the war?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Britain has to come to terms with Germany. No North Africa campaign. No diversion to Greece. I guess in this scenario I don't see a summer solstice invasion, but an invasion earlier, once the ground can bear tanks.

                    I consider it a German victory if there is still a Soviet Union/Russia east of the Urals.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                      Did the U.S. stay out of the war?
                      No. Now answer my question.
                      Кто там?
                      Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                      Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by lakechampainer View Post
                        " ... I consider it a German victory if there is still a Soviet Union/Russia east of the Urals."
                        The proposed interpretation of German victory in its most complete sense is for them to fully achieve their intended aim; which was to destroy the Soviet Union as a viable force or threat for the foreseeable future; and to control/occupy the planned portion of the Soviet Union. Occupation of the entire Soviet Union was not, AFAIK, considered necessary by the Germans so it was not aimed for and therefore is not a requirement here.
                        Last edited by panther3485; 20 Apr 13, 13:04.
                        "England expects that every man will do his duty!" (English crew members had better get ready for a tough fight against the combined French and Spanish fleets because that's what England expects! However, Scotland, Wales and Ireland appear to expect nothing so the Scottish, Welsh and Irish crew members can relax below decks if they like!)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          No. Now answer my question.
                          The Soviet victory in World War II cannot be decontextualized and taken for granted in itself. To explore possible developments in the East in the absence of significant American input in the West is what this thread is for.

                          If you believe the Soviets would still prevail, explain why you think so. That the Soviets won in the OTL has no bearing in here.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Britain has to come to terms with Germany.
                            Why do you think so?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by KDF33 View Post
                              The Soviet victory in World War II cannot be decontextualized and taken for granted in itself. To explore possible developments in the East in the absence of significant American input in the West is what this thread is for.

                              If you believe the Soviets would still prevail, explain why you think so. That the Soviets won in the OTL has no bearing in here.
                              So, something that did not happen in reality is not fantasy?

                              This whole thread is fantasy. Not that that is bad, but you just dismiss something someone else posted as 'fantasy' in a thread that is predicated on 'fantasy.' So no matter how you try to talk about what if this or what if that, in the end it is just fantasy.

                              Hey Panther - I 'get' your thread, take no offense from me. Just having fun with the guy who seems to jump off the deep end anytime somebody reminds him the Germans didn't win.
                              Кто там?
                              Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                              Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

                              Comment

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