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If nukes did not exists, how long do you think Japan will last

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  • If nukes did not exists, how long do you think Japan will last

    Its August 1945, the Manhattan Project has failed. Taking down Japan has to be done the hardway. The next operation: Olympic and Coronet.

    A successful campaign still does not guarantee the surrender of large amounts of Japanese military forces in China and South East Asia.

    So how long does the war last?

  • #2
    Naval blockade. Those numbers on the mainland are just that, numbers. By the summer of 45 IJ was defeated, bomb or no bomb. An invasion was never needed. I have to wonder what was hoped to be accomplished by an invasion of the Home Islands that was worth several thousand allied dead and wounded. Japan was no longer a threat at sea. Those on the mainland...they could not save Japan.
    "Ask not what your country can do for you"

    Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

    youre entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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    • #3
      6 months tops. We know Japan was, on one hand, looking for a way out of the war without losing face. On the other hand the militarists were wanting to go down in a blaze of glory. But 6 more months of starvation even the militarists would be too weak to do more than ritual Seppuku.
      Eagles may fly; but weasels aren't sucked into jet engines!

      "I'm not expendable; I'm not stupid and I'm not going." - Kerr Avon, Blake's 7

      What didn't kill us; didn't make us smarter.

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      • #4
        Naval blockade. Those numbers on the mainland are just that, numbers. By the summer of 45 IJ was defeated, bomb or no bomb. An invasion was never needed. I have to wonder what was hoped to be accomplished by an invasion of the Home Islands that was worth several thousand allied dead and wounded. Japan was no longer a threat at sea. Those on the mainland...they could not save Japan.
        An invasion was needed because the Allies demanded an unconditional surrender. At this point in the war, Japan was ready to fly the white flag if the US guarantee the continuation of the emperial line.

        The best way for Japan to make Japan surrender is to be flexible with the "unconditional surrender" demand. A highly probable scenario considering the US populations is war weary at this point.

        IMO, the Germans were throughly beaten, the Japanese surrendered.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
          Naval blockade. Those numbers on the mainland are just that, numbers. By the summer of 45 IJ was defeated, bomb or no bomb. An invasion was never needed. I have to wonder what was hoped to be accomplished by an invasion of the Home Islands that was worth several thousand allied dead and wounded. Japan was no longer a threat at sea. Those on the mainland...they could not save Japan.
          Originally posted by RichardS View Post
          6 months tops. We know Japan was, on one hand, looking for a way out of the war without losing face. On the other hand the militarists were wanting to go down in a blaze of glory. But 6 more months of starvation even the militarists would be too weak to do more than ritual Seppuku.
          Besides the Allied policy of requiring Unconditional Surrender to be imposed which was, of course, fully legitimate there are other reasons why a naval blockade/wait 6 months and "starve them out" policy was unacceptable.

          Allied prisoners of war were being worked and starved to death.

          They could not wait 6 months.

          A few nights ago my mother again related the situation about the pending fate of the brother(Ray Bain R.I.P.) of her lifelong friend(Nancy Deeks nee Bain).

          They all grew up together in the small town of Wauchope N.S.W.

          Upon finally returning home in a condition of very poor health Ray Bain always understood that his life and those of many thousands of fellow POW's was saved by the use of the Atom Bombs.

          So, this is not just an abstract concept for me picked up in history class or from a book.

          This is personal.

          There were many thousands of other Ray Bain's and consequently many thousands of families who were desperately praying for their sons to come home alive.

          It is sad for the more than 100,000 Japanese civilians who died in the blasts but, no doubt, many of them would have been raising their arms and shouting "Banzai" upon being fed news of Japanese military conquest.

          The lives of the Allied prisoners and the servicemen and women in direct contact with Japanese forces, or in preparation to do the same, was paramount.

          The Japanese started the Pacific War.

          It was "justice for all" to end it as quickly as possible, by whatever means necessary which actually resulted in less human suffering overall than if a long drawn out blockade had been implemented or God forbid, an invasion had eventuated.

          This fact should be crystal clear, as it is to me.

          I cannot understand why it is not universally understood and accepted, instead of being a point of contention as it still is today 67 years later.

          To Ray(R.I.P.) and those surviving veterans still attempting to obtain some compensation from the Japanese Government for their forced labour in the Japanese coal mines whilst their own Australian Government ignores them and refuses to put diplomatic pressure on the Japanese Government to pay up whilst protesting strongly about Japanese whaling...

          http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...4&postcount=29

          Mr. Joe Coombs (born in 1920):
          We had several falls at the coal mine. Some of them were quite big, but fortunately no one was seriously injured. The camp itself consisted of new buildings. But the situation in the mine was terrible. It took us half an hour to walk down for around one mile from the entrance to the coal face. We worked in two shifts for twelve hours a day. I was around 80 kilograms but towards the end of the war my weight was down to around 48 kilograms. Im ready to receive any kind of compensation from the Japanese government.
          http://japanfocus.org/-fujita-yukihisa/3127

          It seems that whales are more important than those that were traumatised resulting from serving their country.

          Save the whales..... the P.O.W's and their families.

          Many people today are uncomfortable with people from my mothers's generation who are still alive and who still remember and who wont shut up and bow down to political correctness.

          I intend to keep those memories alive, as a tribute to those who did not turn their back on their country.

          They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;
          Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
          At the going down of the sun and in the morning
          We will remember them.

          Lest we forget.

          Last edited by At ease; 18 Dec 12, 20:18.
          "It's like shooting rats in a barrel."
          "You'll be in a barrel if you don't watch out for the fighters!"

          "Talking about airplanes is a very pleasant mental disease."
          Sergei(son of Igor) Sikorsky, 'AOPA Pilot' magazine February 2003.

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          • #6
            No bomb means the death of ~120,000 Allied POWs in Malaya. The IJA commander had ordered that they would be killed, men, women and children, when the first Allied troops hit the invasion beaches. The date of the Allied invasion was Aug. 15th.
            Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
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            World War II Resources
            The best place in the world to "work".

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            • #7
              Originally posted by At ease View Post
              Besides the Allied policy of requiring Unconditional Surrender to be imposed which was, of course, fully legitimate there are other reasons why a naval blockade/wait 6 months and "starve them out" policy was unacceptable.

              Allied prisoners of war were being worked and starved to death.

              ...
              There are are various estimates of how many casualties Olympic and Coronet would have cost. But the US Joint Chiefs of Staff estimated that Olympic alone would have cost 465,000, including an expected 109,000 dead.

              That would be acceptable to free a few thousand of POW's?
              Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics.

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              • #8
                Firebomb and starve thoses Japanese to death

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                • #9
                  I wonder if conventional bombing could have achieved a surrender

                  Theoretically it should be able to but for some reason it might not have the same physiological impact
                  You better drop your flag an withdraw.

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                  • #10
                    Aside from the Allied PoW who were at extreme risk in August 1945 there were intact Japanese armies all across Asia and the South Pacific. Indonesia, Maylasia, Burma, and Indo China each had substantial Japanese forces. China had multiple armies across it. In each of those cases the japanese forces had no imeadiate need for supply from the homeland as food and medical supplies were available locally and ammo stocks substantial. In the Phillipines the equivalent of two Japanese armies still held out with months of ammo and food at hand.

                    Across all these territories, but especially China the Japanese occupation was brutal and in China casualties were substantial right up to the end. Across Asia & Pacifica conservatively between 1,500 & 2,000 non Japanese soldiers and civilians died daily as a direct result of Japanese military and 'police' operations.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
                      The best way for Japan to make Japan surrender is to be flexible with the "unconditional surrender" demand. A highly probable scenario considering the US populations is war weary at this point.
                      Until the atomic bombs were dropped and the Soviet Union declared war the Japanese idea of "flexibility" was to propose a armistice with the US and Britain, the Japanese military left intact, a negotiated withdrawl from the Phillipines and the European colonies, peace talks with China, and the other pre 1937 components of Japans empire left intact. Those were the proposals discussed by the Japanese cabinet since spring 1945, and which were in the hands of the diplomats making peace proposals to Soviet diplomats and to US representatives in Switzerland. The idea of Japan retaining the core of its empire, being allowed the probablity of rebuilding its military, and worse the same imperialist leaders left in power did not make sense to the US leaders.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Blakdust View Post
                        I wonder if conventional bombing could have achieved a surrender

                        Theoretically it should be able to but for some reason it might not have the same physiological impact
                        Eventually, perhaps in just a couple months ,the Japanese railroad and coastal barge transportation would have collapsed from the bombing. The Japanese leaders already feared the rice harvest had failed & with the railroads inoperable large scale starvation in the cities would have ensued that winter. Distribution of remaining coal would have failed as well, aggravating the malnutrition with illnesses from lack of heat. Not much theoretical about this. Both the US and Japanese military staffs estimated how the industrial collapse of Japan would play out and came to the same general conclusion. Massive malnutrition, epidemic scale disease, and effective cessation of industrial activity over a five to eight month time. meanwhile japanese armies would be fighting on elsewhere and 30,000 to 60,000 civilians and soldiers dying across Asian and Pacifica each of those months until the insanity within the Japanese government ceased.

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                        • #13
                          Chemical weapons in cities from wat I have heard lemay was considering this

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                            Naval blockade. Those numbers on the mainland are just that, numbers. By the summer of 45 IJ was defeated, bomb or no bomb. An invasion was never needed. I have to wonder what was hoped to be accomplished by an invasion of the Home Islands that was worth several thousand allied dead and wounded. Japan was no longer a threat at sea. Those on the mainland...they could not save Japan.
                            This would have finished Japan in under 6 months. Between the shutdown of industry, continued aerial bombardment, and starvation it would have broken the nation without invasion.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                              Naval blockade. Those numbers on the mainland are just that, numbers. By the summer of 45 IJ was defeated, bomb or no bomb. An invasion was never needed. I have to wonder what was hoped to be accomplished by an invasion of the Home Islands that was worth several thousand allied dead and wounded. Japan was no longer a threat at sea. Those on the mainland...they could not save Japan.
                              Most supreme allied commanders were quite entrenched in a "Total War" state of mind and were quite content in "killin' dem SOB's" whilst the public was probably getting tired of the bloodshed at this point. They just wanted to war to be over and supreme command *shrug* did it the the best way they knew how, by killin' as many of 'em as possible until they give up.

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