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  • Spartly Island dispute

    What are the chances that a dispute over the spartly Islands could lead to a war ? when was it most likely in history and between which nations ?

    Any input is appreciated

  • #2
    Higher than most people think. It one of those WW1 situations ie no one thinks it going to happen but all it takes is someone being stupid and it gets ugly.

    Comment


    • #3
      I have to agree, China vs the world! This would give China the chance to take over Taiwan militarily while everyone is trying to rush assets to the area. "dramatic music" and what about North Korea?

      So the big players, the US and China, the second world powers Britain (they always show up) and maybe even Japan in a supporting role, and the third world "powers" Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

      Or, will it be fought out in the halls of commerce all over the world?
      In Vino Veritas

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      • #4
        Originally posted by dongar1 View Post
        I have to agree, China vs the world!
        Not even close

        This would give China the chance to take over Taiwan militarily while everyone is trying to rush assets to the area.
        Surely you jest? China makes sure every naval asset that might be used to stop an invasion of Taiwan is sitting just a few hours steaming time from Taiwan before invading? Really? All those Americans ships that would normally be days away are right on the spot. Same wiht Australian ships & Japanese ones if it comes to that. Try this. If China wants to invade taiwan it tries to make sure as many potentially hostile naval assets as possible are as far away as possible. Not right bloody next door!!!

        "dramatic music" and what about North Korea?
        What about Nth Korea? its navy is a joke that would be flattened by the RoK & any japanese units in the vicinity. If it chose to move against the RoK on land it would lose.

        So the big players, the US and China,
        So far so good.

        the second world powers Britain (they always show up)
        Really? Do tell. When exactly was the last time Britain 'showed up' to a US war in East Asia. Actually, when was the last time Britain 'showed up' to a war in East Asia period? It was before I was born, so I feel confident it was WAY before you were (I hope so anyway, it would give you some excuse). The Yanks tried to drag them into Vietnam, but not even SEATO committments (such as they were) could achieve that. I'm pretty sure you need to go back to the konfrontasi to find British forces combat deployed in East Asia. If you think the downsized RN is going to steam to the other side of the world to get sunk by the Chinese you have another think coming.

        and maybe even Japan in a supporting role, and the third world "powers" Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.
        Japan...maybe. The others, well they are pretty much committed. Singapore might also get dragged in on the US side along with Australia & maybe even Indonesia...though probably not the latter.

        Or, will it be fought out in the halls of commerce all over the world?
        Why the halls of commerce? Try the halls of diplomacy. I actually think there is a chance that at some point in the next 50 years there will be a proper shooting war in the Sth China sea, but in the meantime it will be diplomats trying hard to avoid it.
        Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

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        • #5
          Well if the US fleets are busy elsewhere (N.Korea doing saber rattling) or trying to keep other parties at bay. What would the UK give for Hong Kong back? Brunei for some ungodly reason is trying to weigh in (but no real navy to speak of, but all they need is a missile delivery system). We usually have two carrier groups in that area. China has carriers now too, and going for more.

          http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/s...w/rus/1143.htm

          http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/s...rus/1143_5.htm

          and
          http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41108.pdf

          We gotta face the fact that the 3rd world can do little to stave off Backfire bombers. Even Australia might have a little problem there, as will the American carriers (two remember).

          Diplomacy,

          You're in America now," I said. "Our idea of diplomacy is showing up with a gun in one hand and a sandwich in the other and asking which you'd prefer.
          ― Jim Butcher, Turn Coat
          In Vino Veritas

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by dongar1 View Post
            Well if the US fleets are busy elsewhere (N.Korea doing saber rattling)
            Did I mention that the RoK & Japan could deal with the DPRK? I feel sure I did.

            or trying to keep other parties at bay.
            I don't even know what you are talking about now. Spratlys? Taiwan? Outer Mongolia?

            What would the UK give for Hong Kong back?
            Sorry? What the f*ck are you talking about? They gave it up peacefully & willingly the first time.

            Brunei for some ungodly reason is trying to weigh in (but no real navy to speak of, but all they need is a missile delivery system).
            The reason (godly or otherwise) is that they also have maritime claims in the area.

            We usually have two carrier groups in that area. China has carriers now too, and going for more.
            Those carriers are a ways off being much of an issue for the US. There are other much more important developments that aren't as sexy.

            We gotta face the fact that the 3rd world can do little to stave off Backfire bombers. Even Australia might have a little problem there, as will the American carriers (two remember).
            Australia is a long way away and there are several airforces in between.

            Diplomacy,

            You're in America now," I said. "Our idea of diplomacy is showing up with a gun in one hand and a sandwich in the other and asking which you'd prefer.
            ― Jim Butcher, Turn Coat
            Fortunately America's diplomats are more interested in avoiding war than quoting movies.
            Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

            Comment


            • #7
              I had to chuckle about the idea of Britain wanting Hong Kong back. They took Hong Kong because they wanted more trade with China. OK, for a while, Hong Kong was useful to the Opium trade, then as a far eastern coaling station foir naval vessels, then as a Cold War outpost, but those days have gone by the wayside, and Hong Kong is still important in trade and Britain, while no longer master in Hong Kong, has all the trade with China that it could want. Plus it has the good will of a great many educated Chinese who understand quite well what Hong Kong has meant to China's modernization and trade.

              Indeed, when young Hong Kongers decide to study English, the majority prefer to learn proper British English. My own impression from a mere five visits is that the British legacy in Hong Kong is serving Britain well, and will continue to do so.
              dit: Lirelou

              Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

              Comment


              • #8
                I hate to cite the Canadian Press, but:

                http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11...craft-carrier/

                The US IS down to 1 carrier in the Gulf.

                The Kiev would not take long to make operational.

                Chinese air refueling is getting there:

                http://www.defencetalk.com/automatic...cessful-25734/
                In Vino Veritas

                Comment


                • #9
                  Vietnam /Phillipines vs China seems like the most likely scenario to me.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I would opine that with the Chinese so heavily invested with looking for oil in places like Africa, it would make sense to make sure no one else drills around the Sprately's.

                    Pruitt
                    Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                    Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                    by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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