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Very Near Future...Second Cuban Blockade...Feedback Requested

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  • Very Near Future...Second Cuban Blockade...Feedback Requested

    Here is a near future scenario I'd like feedback on.

    Sometime in the next five years, the Cuban leader, another Castro is assassinated. His successor is not up to handling the crisis and Cuba erupts into civil war, the factions being those who support the old regime and those who want to see a complete change of government, restored relations with the U.S., etc.

    Within six months, the U.S. decides to openly support the rebels. It sends supplies, but not actual troops. It does, however, cheerfully sink most of the Cuban navy. Just as a precaution.

    Allies of the Cuban regime attempt to support it, but the U.S. creates a blockade. Not as extreme, perhaps, as the one created for the missile crisis, but the U.S. is not letting any ship or plane in that it thinks might have supplies for the Cuban military. A small naval war erupts as attempts are made to run or even destroy the blockade.

    1. Who does this? My gut feeling is Russia, but another possibility might be an alliance of Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela, partly as a direct challenge to U.S. hegemony over Latin America, a way of saying "You will always have influence, U.S., but now there are TWO great powers in the West."

    2. Long range results? I'm guessing Cuba eventually becomes a U.S. puppet, but would the U.S. extend the war beyond the Caribbean, perhaps deciding to punish Russia and/or Brazil-Argentina-Venezuela by crippling their sea lanes? (No invasion, just the economic warfare of sinking some ships, as a way to sting these countries for having been "naughty.") Naturally, the navies of these countries would try to stop this.

    3. How does this change if both Russia AND the BAV alliance are working together?

    4. Europe probably just stays neutral. Or do they?

    5. What else might happen?

    6. How plausible is all this?

    What are your thoughts, observations, etc.? Thanks!

  • #2
    Why are you automatically assuming Russia would go to war over Cuba? Why are you assuming the US would sink the Cuban Navy, openly support insurgents and blockade the island? What is this 1962? Why would Russia go to war with the USA in 2018 over Cuba?

    Seriously why randomly throw Russia in there? Must be your go to mustache twirler bad guy or something.
    Last edited by Stryker 19K30; 15 Dec 12, 17:44.
    Кто там?
    Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
    Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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    • #3
      Yeah, China would be much more upset. Cuba is giving all sorts of offshore drilling rights to Chinese Corporations, sucking the Gulf dry while Obama blocks all such drilling by the US.
      A radical change in 2018 might revolve around that sort of thing.

      BTW- its Raoul Castro that is in charge now, Fidel retired years ago.

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      • #4
        I just want to know why your 'gut feeling' is The Russian Federation would fight the USA over [i]Cuba[/]
        Кто там?
        Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
        Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

        Comment


        • #5
          The problem with this scenario is that Cuba originally was used by the Russians purely as an attempt to bring the nuclear strategic balance of the cold war back to some sort of parity as they saw it. In the current climate and the near future Cuba means absolutley jack to the Russians or anyone else other than the possible exception of Hugo Chavez when he needs medical attention....

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
            I just want to know why your 'gut feeling' is The Russian Federation would fight the USA over [i]Cuba[/]
            I seem to have hit a raw nerve with that assumption; I apologize for that. It was not meant as a slam on the Russians.

            My understanding is simply that Russia and Cuba have remained good allies even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. If the existing Cuban government was still in power, but weakened by the loss of Raoul Castro, dealing with rebels, they might try to help them. If they misunderstood American intentions, or perhaps thought the Americans were bluffing ("the Americans may be sending aid to the rebels but they won't actually start a war with us over Cuba!"), they might ignore any warnings, and...well...I guess that's how these things start sometimes.

            Of course, I have no idea if that would happen. That's why I asked.

            Speaking of Chavez, is it possible the Venezuelans would try to help?

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            • #7
              The only things Russians care about in Cuba are the resorts. There are zero positives for Russia to fight a war with the US over Cuba. The Cold War has been over for over 20 years. Its time to move on to a new boogeyman.
              Кто там?
              Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
              Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
                The only things Russians care about in Cuba are the resorts. There are zero positives for Russia to fight a war with the US over Cuba. The Cold War has been over for over 20 years. Its time to move on to a new boogeyman.
                Now, now, I'm sure the Russians care about the cigars, too.

                As for boogeymen, I should explain I'm partly doing this to brainstorm scenarios for Harpoon. The Russians are one of my go-to guys when I'm looking for an OpFor, not because I have anything against them or think they're boogeymen but simply because they make a very good Harpoon OpFor. But I want to make sure the scenario concept is plausible.

                The consensus is that it is very unlikely the Russians would currently get involved in a war between Cuba and the United States. That makes sense; I don't see the Russians firing nukes at us just because we're helping some rebels in Cuba, either.

                On the other hand, is it possible the Russians would not send troops but might send a convoy of supply ships to assist the still-legitimate Cuban government? And then something goes wrong, shots get fired, and a few of their ships get sunk. We didn't expect Iraq to shoot at the Stark, after all. All it would take would be one inexperienced officer making a mistake. But now the Russians have a pretty good a reason to be seriously angry with the US. Could things spiral out of control from that point? Or would cooler heads prevail?

                A bigger question...what do you think the Russians would go to war over? Either with the US or someone else.

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                • #9
                  Well, look what happened with the Stark incident and the Liberty incident. Committing to a war because of an overzealous commander or confusion it pretty steep, in this modern day political environment where world economies are intertwined so greatly. Support to the still legitimate government might be sent, but armed ships probably aren't going to be escorting them in to them, not that close to American waters when they are conducting a blockade.

                  Though from a political standpoint wouldn't such a blockade be technically illegal if not approved by the security council? (It is a different political climate than in 1962) Russia and China both have a veto. Doubt that gets approved. I'm sure there is some legal loophole that could be found, but even then I don't even really see the US committing that heavily.

                  But for a Harpoon scenario, keep with the Socialist South American governments doing something, might not be as balanced but more realistic I guess.

                  If you want to look int a Russian naval scenario try something different and thought less often about:

                  http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Security-...g=en&id=142497

                  http://www.payvand.com/news/11/jul/1278.html
                  Кто там?
                  Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                  Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
                    Well, look what happened with the Stark incident and the Liberty incident. Committing to a war because of an overzealous commander or confusion it pretty steep, in this modern day political environment where world economies are intertwined so greatly. Support to the still legitimate government might be sent, but armed ships probably aren't going to be escorting them in to them, not that close to American waters when they are conducting a blockade.

                    Though from a political standpoint wouldn't such a blockade be technically illegal if not approved by the security council? (It is a different political climate than in 1962) Russia and China both have a veto. Doubt that gets approved. I'm sure there is some legal loophole that could be found, but even then I don't even really see the US committing that heavily.

                    But for a Harpoon scenario, keep with the Socialist South American governments doing something, might not be as balanced but more realistic I guess.

                    If you want to look int a Russian naval scenario try something different and thought less often about:

                    http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Security-...g=en&id=142497

                    http://www.payvand.com/news/11/jul/1278.html
                    Very interesting...thanks.

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                    • #11
                      Why would siuth america ever ever try to go against the USN

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