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  • Japan attacks colonies but not the Phillipines...

    If Japan went after Burma, Indonesia and Vietnam but does not attack the Phillipines what is the result. If they propose a non-agression pact with America. Do ou think they could of avoided war with America. From what we all know they would have more forces to put into taking care of those three targets

  • #2
    Search the web for a hour and you will find a dozen other locations where this one has been discussed.

    1. It allows the US to put the scheduled reinforcements into the Phillipines.

    2. It allows the US/Pllipino forces there more time to train and organize. This is particualry important for the air defense. The USAAF had a air defense system along RAf lines set up, but untrained. Just a few more weeks would have seen a functional fighter control with radar and ground observers, a couple months would have seen this reasonablly trained and capable.

    Items 1 & 2 mean that every week that passes makes the Phillipines more difficult to attack, and a greater danger to Japanese sea routes to the south.

    3. By declaring a extended "Nuetrality Zone" surrounding the Phillipines islands similar to that the US patroled in the Atlantic the Japanese sea routes to the South Pacific & South China Sea would have been severely restrictied. a intolerable situation for Japans military & political leaders. They would have violated it simply out of necessity. The US had some thirty submarines available in the Pacifc to patrol this nuetrality zone, plus the 300+ aircraft that would be based on Luzon. It is almost guaranteed the Japanese would end up shooting at the US air and submarine patrols as they 'strayed' into the US zone.

    4. US signals intellegence stations on Luzon and Guam, air and sea patrols across the Pacific & China seas would have produced information of Japanese movements that would have gone straight to the British and Dutch. We had been sending both intellegence info before 7 December and the Japanese knew it. Feeding intelegence from unhindered US reconissance to the Brits & Dutch would have been intolderable to the Japanese.

    The US was sending large quantities of supplys to the Brits, and had started shipping weapons to the Dutch in the Netherlands East Indies. This certainly would not stop. What are the Japanese going to do when they spot the USN Langley delivering aircraft to Java or find US cargo ships delivering supplies to Rangoon? Between Nuetrality patrols out of the Phillipines, reconissance shadowing Japanese ships, and US supply deliveries shooting will start between the US and Japan within a few months.

    In the end Japan is at war with the US and has lost two or three months to US improving its preperation for war.

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    • #3
      The one crucial element that General MacArthur's US Army and Admiral Hart's Naval forces around Luzon needed was the time to go from a peacetime military to a wartime military force. Just two to three weeks additional gracetime of training would have given them invaluable opportunities to improve their positions greatly. Had the Japanese not struck Pearl Harbor on 7 December, 1941, the "Pensacola Convoy" would have arrived in Manila around Christmas and added several battalions of artillery to MacArthur's forces, as well as aviation gasoline, aircraft, weapons, ammunition, vehicles and manpower to the USAFFE forces in the PI. A large number of B-17 bombers were in transit to the PI on 7December and that number would have continued to grow in the coming days, as more bombers were vectored towards the Philippine Islands.
      "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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      • #4
        Thread Moved To Alternate Timelines Forum

        ACG Staff
        On the Plains of Hesitation lie the blackened bones of countless millions who, at the dawn of victory, sat down to rest-and resting... died. Adlai E. Stevenson

        ACG History Today

        BoRG

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
          In the end Japan is at war with the US and has lost two or three months to US improving its preperation for war.
          Just to say that I agree. One factor not mentioned here is the tendency of "hot-headed junior officers" to act well beyond the official intentions of the Tokyo government. Even if the Japanese government back home had been earnest in wanting to avoid war with the USA, the IJN would have not accepted the constraints you mention, and a submarine commander would have fired the torpedo that would have brought the USA in the war.

          Naturally, one might wonder how different the war would have been then, not just with regard to the military and logistical situation in the PI, but also with regard to the home front morale, which would have been way different than the one that followed the "day of infamy". But the war would have happened.
          Michele

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          • #6
            Had Japan attacked only Malaya-Singapore, and Indonesia on Dec 7, the Invasions would have involved much greater resources and been much faster. The invasion of Indonesia is much easier without American ships. They could then have invaded Madagascar (3,000 miles from Indonesia) and Ceylon instead of Burma.

            The US isolationists would have kept the US out of the war (America would have never declared war unless attacked, especially if the British are in no condition to fight) and the British would have been expelled from the Indian Ocean. Burma and India would have gained their independence, gaining Japan great praise in the American press.

            The axis would have been connected through the Red Sea and the Japanese navy would have chased the British out of the Med with one carrier and its support fleet.
            The axis gains the invaluable oil from Abadan and time to produce better planes. Japan can declare war on the USSR (as originally intended by the imperial army), capture all of Persia and allow the axis to capture Baku and deny access to American goods through Vladivostok and Persia.
            The American public would have pressed the government to stop wasting resourcess on a useless and hopeless Britain.
            The British public would have been completely disappointed with yet another series of deblacles and forced Churchill to either resign or sue for peace.
            Last edited by Draco; 18 Sep 12, 09:52.

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            • #7
              The reason Japan went to war with the US is we cut off exports of oil and scrap metal to Japan, because they were in China! They had at most two years supply of oil to do something. The problem was they miscalculated the figures! The IJN thought they would keep all the oil! They instead had to share with the IJA and send some to the consumer economy.

              Seizure of certain Indonesian islands could bring oil to Japan, but the Dutch were pretty good at sabotaging their oil fields. The Japanese even sent a special unit of oilfield workers to get the Dutch fields going again. The ship carrying them was sunk and these workers were not replaced.

              The Japanese already had control of Indochina and did not need to invade it twice!

              I doubt a few more months would have made MacArthur turn to a war footing and be any more prepared. Douglas seemed bound and determined to keep his men on garrison duty and not send them into the field. The Philippine Army did not have enough Company grade officers to command the units and the ones they did have could not speak their troops language. The 3" Antiaircraft guns could not reach the Japanese Bombers. the American Units in the PI were understrength. They were going to send over a National Guard Infantry Regiment and break it up for replacements. Another National Guard Infantry Regiment was coming to reinforce the Philippine Division.

              The end result would have been more men and equipment lost in the PI.

              Pruitt
              Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

              Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

              by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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              • #8
                The ship carrying the oil workers was sunk my the US Navy, which is out of the picture here. Otherwise, they would have produced oil earlier. In any case, the oil wasted in the PH attack, Wake attacks, the Philipines, Guam, Coral Sea, Aleutians, Midway (where a huge fleet never even took part in the attack and wasted huge amounts of oil just sailing pointlessly), Guadalcanal, Bouganville, Wewak, etc, is not wasted in this scenario.

                The Japanese would probably capture oil in Ceylon (the British PH) and in Abadan (far more than in Indonesia). Iran and Iraq were pro axis and would have helped to kick out the British and Soviets.
                Last edited by Draco; 18 Sep 12, 10:05.

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                • #9
                  Draco,

                  The Dutch Navy is just as capable of hitting the invasion force as the old US Destroyers. The British had already secured Iraq and Iran. The Indian Army was sitting on them at this time. Even if some of these oil field workers had survived, the fields were still burning. The Japanese never got these fields to produce anywhere near the previous production.

                  I was unaware Ceylon was producing oil. Burma had some. Maybe you confused the two?

                  All this supposes that the IJN would agree to leave the PI sitting on their supply routes.

                  Pruitt
                  Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                  Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                  by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It wasn't the old destroyers, but the American submarines and cruisers that caused damage.

                    Hawaii wasn't producing oil either but had much more oil than Japan had. Ceylon was Britain's Hawaii, so it had to have oil for the fleet.

                    The Dutch and British navies were doomed against the small fleet they confronted, despite US help, much more so without US help and facing some of the carriers and plane tenders that otherwise attacked PH, the Philippines, etc, and the ships also used in the Guam, Wake and other invasions and the PH attack.

                    USS Houston shot down several planes and later drove off the first invasion fleet off Timor, so the invasion is much easier without the US navy.

                    Moreover, after India and Burma gain their independence, Japan can acquire oil and rice from Burma (the world's largest rice exporter) and iron ore, etc, from India at a low price, since they cannot export them to other countries with the Japanese controlling the Indian Ocean.
                    Germany, Italy and Romania have access to invaluable tin & rubber from Indonesia and Malaya, oil from Abadan, tungsten from China, etc,
                    As Japan advances in Siberia the axis also gains access to invaluable chromium for armour, etc, and many other strategic minerals, that Stalin loses, weakening the USSR.
                    With the USSR fighting the Japanese in eastern Siberia without US help, the Chinese communists do not receive any materiel from the USSR and with the Japanese in Ceylon and the British out of Burma, the US cannot send help to Chiang, so resistance in China collapses and the Chinese conquer the whole country and can relocate at least 100,000 troops to fight elsewhere.
                    Last edited by Draco; 18 Sep 12, 12:25.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Pruitt View Post
                      Draco,

                      The Dutch Navy is just as capable of hitting the invasion force as the old US Destroyers. The British had already secured Iraq and Iran. The Indian Army was sitting on them at this time.
                      I gather he's now suggesting the Japanese steam all the way across the Indian Ocean and take Abadan and Basra as a piece of cake. While they are at it, why don't they also occupy some oil-producing South American countries? They seem to have a bottomless barrel filled with personnel, war materiel, tanker ships, other logistical lift, specialized oilfield equipment and whatnot.
                      Michele

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                      • #12
                        They have the 130,000 they wasted in Wewak, the thousands in the Philippines, Guam, Wake, Burma, Bougainville, Truk, Guadalcanal, the Aleutians, etc, and lose a lot fewer people fighting poorly armed and led Indian and Soviet troops in Persia, Aden and Iraq without planes and ships than fighting better armed and led Americans and Australians in the Philippines and the remote Pacific with plenty of planes.

                        Together with India and Burma, Nepal gains its independence, so the British also lose the Gurkha troops.
                        After India gains its independence thanks to Japan, Indian troops in Persia, North Africa, etc, are more likely to join the axis (like many did after Singapore fell) than to fight against it. Actually, India is quite likely to join the axis, providing some troops to fight the USSR in and from Persia.

                        With the British losing access to Egypt both through the western Med and the Red sea, the axis quickly captures Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, etc, and joins Japan in Persia and Iraq for the invasion of Baku (instead of having to keep lots of Italian and a few German divisions fighting the British in North Africa) . With the British out of the Med Turkey has to join the axis (or face invasion) and it helps enormously in the war against the USSR by providing both access to the Black sea and troops and a fleet to invade Baku.
                        Last edited by Draco; 18 Sep 12, 12:17.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Draco View Post
                          They have the 130,000 they wasted in Wewak, the thousands in the Philippines, Guam, Wake, Burma, Bougainville, Truk, Guadalcanal, the Aleutians, etc, and lose a lot fewer people fighting poorly armed and led Indian and Soviet troops in Persia, Aden and Iraq without planes and ships than fighting better armed and led Americans and Australians in the Philippines and the remote Pacific with plenty of planes.

                          Together with India and Burma, Nepal gains its independence, so the British also lose the Gurkha troops.
                          After India gains its independence thanks to Japan, Indian troops in Persia, North Africa, etc, are more likely to join the axis (like many did after Singapore fell) than to fight against it. Actually, India is quite likely to join the axis, providing some troops to fight the USSR in and from Persia.

                          With the British losing access to Egypt both through the western Med and the Red sea, the axis quickly captures Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, etc, and joins Japan in Persia and Iraq for the invasion of Baku (instead of having to keep lots of Italian and a few German divisions fighting the British in North Africa) . With the British out of the Med Turkey has to join the axis (or face invasion) and it helps enormously in the war against the USSR by providing both access to the Black sea and troops and a fleet to invade Baku.
                          Not attacking any of your assumptions or positions but getting your attention: not attacking the Philippines leaves a large and potentially very hostile force sitting astride the supply lines. US-Japan relations were quite bad, and Japanese attacks on the British, French and Dutch colonies would make them even worse. The Philippines would also become a possible retreat haven for the colonial forces.

                          Then there is the "face" issue: if Japan is strong enough to challenge France, Holland UK and Portugal, surely it must be strong enough to challenge the US too. Otherwise it will be seen to be attacking the down and out, not the strong.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Draco View Post
                            ... The US isolationists would have kept the US out of the war (America would have never declared war unless attacked, especially if the British are in no condition to fight) and the British would have been expelled from the Indian Ocean. Burma and India would have gained their independence, gaining Japan great praise in the American press....
                            Rubbish. If you would take the time examine the issues you would understand that "Isolationism" in the US was a dead issue by September 1941. There were a few marginailised hangers-on but the US public was already resigned to entering the fight,... the government and military had been preparing for entry into the war since 1938.

                            As mentioned above Japan only loses time and position by excluding the US from its initial attacks.

                            The question of US entry was only one of provocation and a Japanese attack on the Dutch and British in Asia would likely have been the catalyst that permitted US entry. The US was already in a shooting war with Germany in the Atlantic.
                            The Purist

                            Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking - John Maynard Keynes.

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                            • #15
                              Draco,

                              You sure know how to run with a premise! The Japanese will not bypass the Dutch East Indies or Malaya. The British destroyed the Burma Oil fields during the retreat. The rice crop in Burma is subject to disruption. Most of the market for that crop is in Bengal and East India.

                              You are also supposing the IJA and IJN will cooperate. That is not likely!

                              So you are supposing the British will leave their Fuel Farms at Trincomalee intact? That is a pretty long stretch.

                              There us also a problem with the number of oil tankers the Japanese had available. They used just about all the had to raid Pearl Harbor and send troops to Malaya and Borneo.

                              Pruitt
                              Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                              Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                              by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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