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The Second Russo Japanese War

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  • The Second Russo Japanese War

    The year is 2018. After years of tension, Japan launches a surprise invasion of the Kuril Islands. Russian forces, caught completely off guard, surrendered and Japan proceeds to dig in.

    The Russian Pacific fleet, made hasty counter attack but was soon forced to retreat after a Japanese SSK put torpedoed on one of Russia's Mistral class landing ships. Fearful of a Japanese strike, the Russian Navy ordered the Pacific fleet to withdraw. Japan allowed them to retreat. Considering the issue settled, Japan freed Russian POW via China. However, Russia will not let this issue slide.

    After 4 months, Russia has assembled the bulk of her Navy to try to retake the Kuril. The main units of the fleet consist of:
    1.) Newly refurbished Kuznetsov with Mig 29K airwing
    2.) Two battlecruisers (Peter the Great) and newly refurbished Admiral Nakhimov.
    3.) Three remaining Slava cruisers
    4.) 3 Mistral Class LSD
    5.) the majority of the Akula, SIerra, and Oscar SSGNs
    6.) Escorts of Sovremmeny, Udaloy, Gorshkov class destroyers and frigates.

    In addition, they have transferred the several airborne naval infantry divisions, naval aviation, and airforce units to Sakhalin to support the effort.

    In response, Japan has instructed the Japanese self defence force to be ready to repel the invaders.

    Who wins.

  • #2
    If Russian Gov't will have balls, they will simply say : Go back Japs or Toky will follow the fate of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
    There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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    • #3
      Japan could develop nuclear weapons (or pretend to, after buying them from a willing dealer behind the scenes), in under a year - presumably the period of 'rising tension' in the OP, could include just such a year. Japan is also under the US nuclear umbrella.
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      • #4
        Japan's leadership are eventually arrested by their own people as well as the military leaders who ordered any operations for explicitly violating Chapter II Article 9 of their constitution.
        Кто там?
        Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
        Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Selous View Post
          Japan could develop nuclear weapons (or pretend to, after buying them from a willing dealer behind the scenes), in under a year - presumably the period of 'rising tension' in the OP, could include just such a year. Japan is also under the US nuclear umbrella.
          The threat of using nuclear weapons alone will prevent any Japanese aggression, that's for a starter. Absolutely nobody in the US would risk a nuclear war with Russia because of its client's military adventures. Anyway the Japanese would never get the critical mass of nuclear missiles/bombs to get past Russia's anti-aircraft defences. It's like they haven't learnt anything from 1945.
          www.histours.ru

          Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ShAA View Post
            The threat of using nuclear weapons alone will prevent any Japanese aggression, that's for a starter. Absolutely nobody in the US would risk a nuclear war with Russia because of its client's military adventures. Anyway the Japanese would never get the critical mass of nuclear missiles/bombs to get past Russia's anti-aircraft defences. It's like they haven't learnt anything from 1945.
            UN action would be swift. Nobody on the Security Council, not even the US, would veto any actions against a nation conducting an illegal war of aggression to seize land internationally recognized as belonging to another country.
            Кто там?
            Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
            Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ShAA View Post
              The threat of using nuclear weapons alone will prevent any Japanese aggression, that's for a starter.
              The threat of a nuclear option from anyone's count is why I disagreed with Emtos' point. With those weapons in play, no one's going to be too rash and if they are going to go on the warpath it's going to be on the most limited of objectives. - Kind of why that premise in the OP doesn't make sense to me- However,

              Absolutely nobody in the US would risk a nuclear war with Russia because of its client's military adventures. Anyway the Japanese would never get the critical mass of nuclear missiles/bombs to get past Russia's anti-aircraft defences. It's like they haven't learnt anything from 1945.
              Even IF, the Japanese in power felt bold enough to make a stab, and then based on the premise of the OP; of a period of rising tensions etc and then a successful, surprise invasion; What're the odds, and that's a genuine question, of Russian leadership allowing a nuclear launch in exchange for the sudden loss of the Kuril islands?

              Edit; in other words, the pre-game situation to the OP's premise of a Japanese attack may not be easily conceivable to us, but it's the hand we're dealt for this discussion. - a period of tension, then an assault on the islands in 2018.
              Last edited by Selous; 05 Jul 12, 16:03.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
                UN action would be swift.
                It certainly could be swift in condemnation, but lets go with the premise of the OP that it's been a period of rising tension, etc, etc, - that could easily include the US having supported Japan in previous debacles in this alternative timeline, so whilst they wouldn't probably be very supportive, they might not be so fervent in condemnation. However, I don't believe even then anyone's going to standby and let Tokyo get blasted to glass, even if they're the aggressor , and say, well, you brought it on yourselves - Nuclear weapons carry such a stigma these days.

                Nobody on the Security Council, not even the US, would veto any actions against a nation conducting an illegal war of aggression to seize land internationally recognized as belonging to another country.
                That more begs the question what're they going to do about it?
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Selous View Post
                  It certainly could be swift in condemnation, but lets go with the premise of the OP that it's been a period of rising tension, etc, etc, - that could easily include the US having supported Japan in previous debacles in this alternative timeline, so whilst they wouldn't probably be very supportive, they might not be so fervent in condemnation. However, I don't believe even then anyone's going to standby and let Tokyo get blasted to glass, even if they're the aggressor , and say, well, you brought it on yourselves - Nuclear weapons carry such a stigma these days.



                  That more begs the question what're they going to do about it?
                  Well there was a precedent set in 1990...
                  Кто там?
                  Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                  Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Selous View Post
                    The threat of a nuclear option from anyone's count is why I disagreed with Emtos' point. With those weapons in play, no one's going to be too rash and if they are going to go on the warpath it's going to be on the most limited of objectives. - Kind of why that premise in the OP doesn't make sense to me- However,


                    Even IF, the Japanese in power felt bold enough to make a stab, and then based on the premise of the OP; of a period of rising tensions etc and then a successful, surprise invasion; What're the odds, and that's a genuine question, of Russian leadership allowing a nuclear launch in exchange for the sudden loss of the Kuril islands?
                    There'll most likely be an ultimatum - retreat to your dirty holes or die in a big fireball. Now if the US claims it would retaliate Russia for Japan no matter what, that's gonna be interesting. The Russian leadership should make at least a 2-day deadline, in order that a million-strong crowd would gather in Washington to tar and feather whatever idiot in the White House would support Japan in this case.

                    You seem to be misunderstanding the nature of the issue of the Kuriles. After so many years they are no longer simple bits of land but important symbols of the inviolability of Russian borders. Should they be given to Japan or captured by it, the incumbent Russian government would fall.

                    By the way, just a couple of days ago Japan has found the xutzpah to tell Medvedev not to visit the islands.
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                    Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
                      Well there was a precedent set in 1990...
                      I don't see the US leading a coalition against Japan like it did Iraq, I mean, it's possible I guess and I could be wrong, but it doesn't sound in the US's best interests to me. - Perhaps a bit of a demonstration, but until the poster of the scenario gives us some idea on the the US's stance on this event in the timeline, then can we say?
                      I'd presume if the Japanese government was feeling that gutsy to attack Russian territory, (and this is guess as it's not mentioned yet in the scenario) they wouldn't do so without sampling the way the wind was blowing, vis a vis, how the US would react.
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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                        There'll most likely be an ultimatum - retreat to your dirty holes or die in a big fireball. Now if the US claims it would retaliate Russia for Japan no matter what, that's gonna be interesting. The Russian leadership should make at least a 2-day deadline, in order that a million-strong crowd would gather in Washington to tar and feather whatever idiot in the White House would support Japan in this case.
                        I'm limited to a scant reading of Schelling and Brodie in terms of nuclear decision making, but I would have been surprised if the Russian leadership were consider nuclear options and the very idea of risk, for these islands (But if the islands are such a symbol as you say, that could spin it otherwise). Then again we already have to assume some bravado on the part of the Japanese leadership to take the islands by surprise anyway, so the same could be said in this scenario of the Russian leadership on the use of instant daylight.



                        You seem to be misunderstanding the nature of the issue of the Kuriles. After so many years they are no longer simple bits of land but important symbols of the inviolability of Russian borders. Should they be given to Japan or captured by it, the incumbent Russian government would fall.
                        That is a very fair accusation, it's an interesting scenario I'm willing to talk about but I'm coming from a place of particular ignorance in Russo-Japanese international relations. And I mean no offence.

                        By the way, just a couple of days ago Japan has found the xutzpah to tell Medvedev not to visit the islands.
                        What did Mr Medvedev say back? seems like the tensions are already on the up-swing?
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                        • #13
                          Actually just looking at the radition travel from the nuke power plant meltdown that hit the US

                          I am guessing if the US is going to say something along the lines you nuke japan your nuking us hence we will respond in kind.


                          A few nukes might be allowed but nothing major and a few nukes might not get through Japans Missle defense.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by craven View Post
                            Actually just looking at the radition travel from the nuke power plant meltdown that hit the US

                            I am guessing if the US is going to say something along the lines you nuke japan your nuking us hence we will respond in kind.


                            A few nukes might be allowed but nothing major and a few nukes might not get through Japans Missle defense.
                            You don't throw that nuclear stuff around unless you mean it; there's reems of paper out there on nuclear decision making, how much, when, under what circumstances, why, what kind, - how to even have a 'conversation' using nuclear weapons- I'm not sure they'd throw just a few knowing they'd not get through the system, or relying on the fact they might ; too big a risk either way. But you never know
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                            If you have questions about the forum please check the FAQ/Rules

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                            • #15
                              Also somewhere on the forum I seem to remeber another thread along these lines.

                              If I remeber right the Kurils I believe probally rightfully belong to Japan but Russia is just occupying them.

                              But I could be wrong on this one I just remeber lots of banter back and forth old treaties and what was actually meant in those treaties and what treaty supercedes what treaty.

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