Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

List of ways that the Nazis might have won

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • List of ways that the Nazis might have won

    Originally posted by Roadkiller View Post
    ...snip...

    "... They were just such schmucks!
    I mean, it's hard to think of any way a single altered event would have let the Nazis win their war. They would have needed an entire chain of flukes even to have a chance. In fact, it took quite a few lucky breaks for them to last as long as they did, ..."
    ....snip..
    I don't know if there is another thread listing ways that the Nazis might have won but taking up the challenge (noting that Roadkiller was quoting David Brin rather than giving his own opinion) it seems that there are several possible divergences that potentially might have allowed an Axis victory in WW2. Some fora allow posters to create polls and, if it is possible here, it might be interesting to create a poll to allow you all to vote on which possibility is most plausible. Naturally the first step is to suggest possibilities and I am going to offer the following:

    1. Something internal to the USA causes the US President elected in 1940 to be isolationist. Classical stories include The Man in the High Castle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_in_the_High_Castle with the POD of a 1933 assassination of Roosevelt but we can imagine PODs as late as 1940. For example, Thomas E. Mahl has written a convincing account “Desperate Deception: British Convert Operations in the United States, 1939-1944” http://www.amazon.com/Desperate-Dece.../dp/1574882236
    showing that there was some British influence supporting Wilkie. Wilkie was lucky as well because Ralph E. Williams, the head of the convention committee and a Taft supporter, suffered a fall and died two weeks before the convention. Williams was replaced by Sam Pryor, a Wilkie supporter, who may have organized various misfortunes for Wilkie opponents such as a defective microphone for Herbert Hoover and ensured that Wilkie supporters found it easier to get tickets.

    Now only conspiracy theorists believe that a British agent pushed Ralph Williams and the idea is very implausible because it would such a stupid thing to do. However, agents are famous for doing stupid things without orders (see http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/08/wo...8bachmann.html for an example), so let us assume that a particularly stupid British agent thinks that pushing Williams would be a good idea. As this is a very stupid agent, let us assume that he is caught by the Philadelphia Police. The result of such a case going through the courts and all the other examples of British influence turning up over the Summer could go a long way to giving Taft a chance.

    2. The British make peace in 1940

    Obviously the capture of the BEF at Dunkirk might encourage this but the most plausible POD seems to be removing Churchill. This could be achieved on 30th October 1939 when HMS Nelson was torpedoed by U-56 while Churchill was on board http://www.uboat.net/allies/warships/ship/4068.html.

    3. Japan attacks Britain and France in 1939. The obvious POD is that something happens to General Tada in early 1938 (see http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=z...eng%22&f=false). This leaves Tada's rival Tojo to push Japan to focus on victory in China and avoid incidents with the USSR. The result is that in 1939 Japan signs a non-aggression pack with the USSR around the same time as the Molotov – Ribbentrop Pact. I played with this at http://counter-factual.net/upload/sh...d.php?p=163283.

    4. A successful Sealion !! My best try is http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...d.php?t=167056 or http://counter-factual.net/upload/showthread.php?t=9046. I am not arguing that the operation was likely to succeed, just trying to find conditions under which it might succeed without it being clear to historians that Alien Space Bats had been helping.

    5. Various versions of the Mediterranean option. The point is that Germany needs to intervene in the Mediterranean quickly and ideally starting from July 1940. One big problem is persuading Mussolini to agree. Even victory in the Mediterranean does not force Britain out of the war. However, it can remove the victories against Italy that encouraged Britain during 1940-1 and may make Britain's position more difficult if, for example, they have to convoy ships in the Indian Ocean in 1941.

    6. Making Barbarossa work, which needs few comments on this forum except to note that it will still need the Anglo-Americans to give up before building atom bombs and that a successful Mediterranean Campaign in 1940 might allow another route of attack on the Caucasus.

    7. Building more or better U-boats, which is often suggested. This could have been combined with using the Luftwaffe mostly as an anti-shipping force from July 1940.

    8. Superweapons or technologies including having the V-1 ready much sooner (the V-1 was quite low tech. but might have depressed the British if it had started landing in late 1940 when there would have been no way of stopping it), long range bombers for anti-shipping use or perhaps simply developing aerial refuelling to give long range medium bombers and no doubt many other ideas.

    Other ideas are welcome as would be information on how to set up a poll, especially if most of you think that would be a good idea.

  • #2
    Find the book "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze. Read it. Twice.

    Then you'll understand that you would have to correct some fundamental weaknesses in the German economy to even have a remote chance of making any of your proposals work. The truth is that Nazi Germany lost the war the second they started it.

    Then read the chapter on North Africa in VanCreveld's Supplying War. It is clear from that book that the logistical situation prevents the Axis from ever prevailing in North Africa. If you want a plausible reason for the Axis to do better there, you had better come up with a viable (and economic) reason for a peacetime expansion of Libyan ports and a coastal railway in the middle of a world wide depression.

    Comment


    • #3
      Best chance - IMHO - was a coup in the USSR in the early days of Barbarossa. That coup would also have to only do half the job so that there were competing factions vying for power and enough confusing messages coming out of Moscow that the Red Army ceased to function.

      Militarily they had no hope. Politically a slight one but that was gone once the world realized the true nature of the regime.
      Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

      That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

      Comment


      • #4
        Britain was revitalized after Hitler gave up the fight in October 1940, and faced with more confident support from the Americans, the hope of a Nazi victory in the West was slim. Regarding Russia (a death trap for ambitious westerners), the Germans would have had to not only take Moscow and Leningrad, but somehow manage to dismantle Stalin's government. Knowing 'ol Joseph, it would have taken a LOT more than what the Germans put up during Barbarossa, to break his resolve.

        Not a WWII expert by any means, but just my two cents (learned that expression on ACG )
        "I am the Lorax, and I'll yell and I'll shout for the fine things on earth that are on their way out!"

        ~Dr. Seuss, The Lorax


        "The trouble with Scotland...is that it's full of Scots!"

        Comment


        • #5
          Stopping after France falls and committing to defeating England before taking on any more new fronts. In addition, trying hard to keep the US out of a European war.

          The first is clearly doable. The second is likely very doable too particularly once Japan declares war on the US. If Germany won't commit to a war with the US and the US is involved in the Pacific it is likely that the US won't unilaterally declare on Germany particularly if the Germans try not to anger the US.

          Comment


          • #6
            Yes, but would the Japanese have even attempted the Pearl Harbor attack without a strong alliance with the Axis?
            "I am the Lorax, and I'll yell and I'll shout for the fine things on earth that are on their way out!"

            ~Dr. Seuss, The Lorax


            "The trouble with Scotland...is that it's full of Scots!"

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
              Stopping after France falls and committing to defeating England before taking on any more new fronts. In addition, trying hard to keep the US out of a European war.

              The first is clearly doable. The second is likely very doable too particularly once Japan declares war on the US. If Germany won't commit to a war with the US and the US is involved in the Pacific it is likely that the US won't unilaterally declare on Germany particularly if the Germans try not to anger the US.


              How is the first clearly doable? what more could he have done?

              the British have near on complete naval superiority and thanks to superior pilot training schemes and plane production facilities quickly gained air supremacy over their own land.

              Even if Rommel wins a out of the blue victory in the middle east (unlikely given his supply situation) Germany gains nothing except unhelpful Muslims and burning wells, which need to be redeveloped, something that requires materials and manpower the Germans really can't afford to spare, given the fact the Poms are out-producing them in terms of planes, pilots and ships.

              If Germany just sat around waiting for Britain to fall they would wait till they fell, giving the British something more to be insufferable about.
              Task Force Regenbogen- Support and Paras

              Comment


              • #8
                3. Japan attacks Britain and France in 1939. The obvious POD is that something happens to General Tada in early 1938 (see http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=z...eng%22&f=false). This leaves Tada's rival Tojo to push Japan to focus on victory in China and avoid incidents with the USSR. The result is that in 1939 Japan signs a non-aggression pack with the USSR around the same time as the Molotov – Ribbentrop Pact. I played with this at http://counter-factual.net/upload/sh...d.php?p=163283.
                Not then, but in the summer of 1940, perhaps.
                Oh hell, just had a thought...

                Leave the US out of it, just ahead of US preparations to get serious about helping the UK and Holland.
                And use the forces that would have hit the US and Phillipeans on another target.
                India, for example.
                Could the UK have even considered staying in the war?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Exorcist View Post
                  Not then, but in the summer of 1940, perhaps.
                  Oh hell, just had a thought...

                  Leave the US out of it, just ahead of US preparations to get serious about helping the UK and Holland.
                  And use the forces that would have hit the US and Phillipeans on another target.
                  India, for example.
                  Could the UK have even considered staying in the war?
                  How do the Japanese support their forces? they had a hell of a time keeping the forces they had in India in the OTL supplied, add another army or two, and add the fact that the Japanese aren't taking any oil-fields (for which they needed to go through the US) and the Japanese could be worse off, not to mention the fact the Indians and ANZAC's destined for the Med would be on hand to deal with it.

                  I guess the British have more veterans in 1942?
                  Task Force Regenbogen- Support and Paras

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Ways the Nazis may have won

                    1. Confederacy wins in 1863
                    2. Shift in space-time continuum: economic laws no longer work
                    3. Bolsheviks outlaw procreation in 1919
                    4. Nazi scientists discover the death ray
                    5. Weird weather: Russia no longer experiences winter
                    6. Hitler has two testicles: now twice as dangerous
                    7. All German communications rendered in hotmail 128-bit encryption
                    8. Jedi knights intervene on the side of the Germans
                    9. Shocker: Giant squids attack Allied convoys.
                    10. One word: MacGyver
                    Last edited by Skoblin; 28 Mar 12, 02:37.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by skoblin View Post
                      Ways the Nazis may have won

                      1. Confederacy wins in 1863
                      2. Shift in space-time continuum: economic laws no longer work
                      3. Bolsheviks outlaw procreation in 1919
                      4. Nazi scientists discover the death ray
                      5. Weird weather: Russia no longer experiences winter
                      6. Hitler has two testicles: now twice as dangerous
                      7. All German communications rendered in 128-bit encryption
                      8. Jedi knights intervene on the side of the Germans
                      9. Shocker: Giant squids attack Allied convoys.
                      10. One word: MacGyver
                      MacGyver isn't a real person.
                      Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

                      That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Rojik View Post
                        MacGyver isn't a real person.
                        Glad you have no problems with the other points
                        www.histours.ru

                        Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Wellington95 View Post
                          Yes, but would the Japanese have even attempted the Pearl Harbor attack without a strong alliance with the Axis?
                          Agree, Germany's apparent sucess in Europe emboldened Japan to make moves to seize resources in Southeast Asia to finish the war in China.

                          I also agree with Skoblin-except unlike Rojik I know Macgyver was real, he filmed his documentary autobiography series* in my hometown of Vancouver, BC.




                          *True story, the action series was filmed in Vancouver.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by skoblin View Post
                            Ways the Nazis may have won

                            1. Confederacy wins in 1863
                            2. Shift in space-time continuum: economic laws no longer work
                            3. Bolsheviks outlaw procreation in 1919
                            4. Nazi scientists discover the death ray
                            5. Weird weather: Russia no longer experiences winter
                            6. Hitler has two testicles: now twice as dangerous
                            7. All German communications rendered in hotmail 128-bit encryption
                            8. Jedi knights intervene on the side of the Germans
                            9. Shocker: Giant squids attack Allied convoys.
                            10. One word: MacGyver
                            I wish I had thought of such a list - especially the bit about the squids attacking the allied convoys, but that could have been a two edged sword (tentacle?) if the squids also got fed up with those pesky U-Boats as well.

                            How could the Nazis have won WWII? By having a different leadership, a more stable and consistent industrial base on a war footing from the off, by not tying down countless units on insane racial erradication programmes, by enrolling anti Stalin / communist populations where encountered and not slaughtering them thereby strengthening resistance to the occupiers and tying down yet more units on anti-partisan units, by investing in useful weapons development and ditching the charlatans and white elephants (eg the HE177 and Dr Porsche to name but two), by not launching a war on two fronts, by acting in concert with Japan, by not having Italy as an ally, by developing the U-Boat arm more than they did......... in other words, they could (maybe) have won if they were completely different to the way they were and led, if they didn't have Hitler for a leader and if the likes of Britain, France and the allies generally just sat back and ignored the concerted and more joined up expansion of Germany's military/industrial complex without attempting to do anything about it.

                            But it would be mostly down to the squids. And lots of 'em. Provided they left the U-Boats alone of course,
                            HONNEUR ET FIDÉLITÉ

                            "Believe me, nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won." - Duke of Wellington at Waterloo.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                              Find the book "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze. Read it. Twice.

                              Then you'll understand that you would have to correct some fundamental weaknesses in the German economy to even have a remote chance of making any of your proposals work. The truth is that Nazi Germany lost the war the second they started it.
                              ...
                              Good advice!! Fortunately, I found it within reaching distance of where I sit to type but I am not going to argue that I have read it carefully still less understood most of it. It does not seem relevant to my first three possibilities. It may be relevant to the issue of preparations for a Sealion. It is certainly very relevant for Barbarossa. However, there is a small problem with chapter 12 in that this depends strongly on Hillgruber's Hitlers Strategie, which, alas, would stretch my limited German. I might suggest that a more extensive Ruestrungsprogramm B was possible had the USSR not been so severely underestimated but I agree that Hitler was always likely to underestimate the USSR. Tooze also limits the size of any U-boat programme. However, economics does not dictate that Type VIIs cannot be replaced by Type XXI although you can probably only build one XXI for each two VII.

                              Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                              ....
                              Then read the chapter on North Africa in VanCreveld's Supplying War. It is clear from that book that the logistical situation prevents the Axis from ever prevailing in North Africa. If you want a plausible reason for the Axis to do better there, you had better come up with a viable (and economic) reason for a peacetime expansion of Libyan ports and a coastal railway in the middle of a world wide depression.
                              Van Creveld suggests that the Axis could not have effectively supplied a larger force than they used over 1941-2. The problem with arguing about 1940 is that the German numbers at Alam Halfa in 1942, but with late 1940 equipment, might have taken Alexandria in September-October 1940 (One writer even suggests that the Italian 10th Army could have taken Alexandria in September 1940 had they tried www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA367611). Once Alexandria falls the logistic advantage reverses because ships bring Axis supplies direct to Egypt.

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X