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  • No Pacific War in WWII, Japan turns everything against China

    Hello,

    The scale of Operation Ichi-Go is quiet impressive to me for a late war devasted Japan. Whaf if Japan don't suffer an oil embargo in a scenario were a neutral Britain reinforces it's colonies, together with the US, disencouraging a Japanese movemment into Indochina. The Japanese think the best thing to do is try finnish the "Chinese incident" as quick as possible, and focus on this.

    The Japanese would surely expand their Army operations, and more resources and consequentely number of equipment and development of planned modern equipment for the IJA would be natural.

    Just to speak of tanks, all those babies probably would likely enter in production much sooner and in numbers:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_1_Chi-He

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_3_Chi-Nu

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_4_Chi-To

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_5_Chi-Ri

    Other equipments for the IJA like sub machine guns, APC's, and more trucks (better logistics) would also be natural.

    Speaking about the air power, Japan would expand even more it's air power. Aircraft like the Navy A6M Zero and the G4M bomber would surely be used in massive numbers against China. Massive long range strike missions would be possible with such aircraft (long range attacks were de facto responsability of the IJN). Army planes would be much more used in interdiction, like the Ki-51 Sonia, and for anti-partisans operations. And development of new and better aircraft would be another natural thing.

    On the other hand, the Chinese would still be receiving Western help, and since the West would not be at war with Japan, this help would be likely much bigger. I will not talk about the Chinese side because I don't know almost nothing.

    What are your views?
    Last edited by Jenisch; 22 Nov 11, 06:43.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Jenisch View Post
    Hello,

    The scale of Operation Ichi-Go is quiet impressive to me for a late war devasted Japan. Whaf if Japan don't suffer an oil embargo in a scenario were a neutral Britain reinforces it's colonies, together with the US, disencouraging a Japanese movemment into Indochina. The Japanese think the best thing to do is try finnish the "Chinese incident" as quick as possible, and focus on this.

    The Japanese would surely expand their Army operations, and more resources and consequentely number of equipment and development of planned modern equipment for the IJA would be natural.

    Just to speak of tanks, all those babies probably would likely enter in production much sooner and in numbers:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_1_Chi-He

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_3_Chi-Nu

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_4_Chi-To

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_5_Chi-Ri

    Other equipments for the IJA like sub machine guns, APC's, and more trucks (better logistics) would also be natural.

    Speaking about the air power, Japan would expand even more it's air power. Aircraft like the Navy A6M Zero and the G4M bomber would surely be used in massive numbers against China. Massive long range strike missions would be possible with such aircraft (long range attacks were de facto responsability of the IJN). Army planes would be much more used in interdiction, like the Ki-51 Sonia, and for anti-partisans operations. And development of new and better aircraft would be another natural thing.

    On the other hand, the Chinese would still be receiving Western help, and since the West would not be at war with Japan, this help would be likely much bigger. I will not talk about the Chinese side because I don't know almost nothing.

    What are your views?
    I don't believe it would have made any difference. Mao and Chiang Kai Shek would have continued trading space for time, while slowly bleeding the Japanese dry using local counterattacks. If you look at the Japanese military occupation maps of China in 1944, they've captured all of the major seaports, but hold little of the hinterlands of China. The disparity in population between the two countries was just too great. Japan gained very little overall in invading China and would have been much better off staying in Manchuria, while developing the natural resources there and populating it with Japanese emigrees.
    "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Jenisch View Post
      On the other hand, the Chinese would still be receiving Western help, and since the West would not be at war with Japan, this help would be likely much bigger. I will not talk about the Chinese side because I don't know almost nothing.

      What are your views?
      Which Western countries would still be helping Japan, please?
      Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
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      • #4
        Originally posted by johnbryan View Post
        I don't believe it would have made any difference. Mao and Chiang Kai Shek would have continued trading space for time, while slowly bleeding the Japanese dry using local counterattacks. If you look at the Japanese military occupation maps of China in 1944, they've captured all of the major seaports, but hold little of the hinterlands of China. The disparity in population between the two countries was just too great. Japan gained very little overall in invading China and would have been much better off staying in Manchuria, while developing the natural resources there and populating it with Japanese emigrees.
        You are considerating the planned Sichuan Invasion?

        From Wik:

        The Szechwan Invasion, also known as the Chongqing Operation, Chongqing Campaign or Operation 5, was the Imperial Japanese Army's failed plan to destroy the Chongqing-based Chiang Kai-shek government during the Second Sino-Japanese War. It was to be a stepping stone for Japan's final control of the Chinese mainland.

        The operation started in spring of 1942, after the first phase of operations had been concluded in south China, and continued through spring of 1943. The operation is noted for Japan's sustained bombing of cities in central west China.


        The Basic Plan

        [I]The basic plan was to make a multi-front breakthrough to Sichuan from northern Shanxi, central Hubei and southern Hunan. Heavy aerial support and bombing of Chongqing supported the advance of Japanese Army and collaborationist forces. Japanese Navy patrol boats from the Yangtze river provided further bombardment. Chiang Kai-shek discussed the invasion in his book Soviet Russia in China, stating:

        The Imperial General Headquarters sent the order for drawing down 16 divisions and logistics support units from Japan reserves, Manchukuo and Southern Areas (including New Guinea and Solomon islands also) to reinforce the Japanese expeditionary forces in central China area, to prepare the principal force of ten divisions in south Shanshi and other support group conformed by six Divisions of Ichang in Hubei amongst other Divisions located in Changde, in Hunan, for striking Sichuan and the occupation of Chongqing in September 1942.


        Interests in Sichuan region

        Both Chiang Kai-shek and General Wego W.K. Chiang suspected that the intense bombing of Chongqing by the Japanese Navy and the Japanese Air Force was to support the diversionary Japanese operations against metropolitan Chongqing, as part of the invasion of Sichuan. It was also possible that the Japanese army hoped that a terror campaign against Chongqing would force the Chinese authorities to break from the Allies and make a separate peace with Japan.

        By coincidence, September 1942 was also the time when the German Wehrmacht was closing in on Stalingrad. The actual invasion involves Japanese units first occupying Wanxian, from where the Japanese could advance to Chongqing-proper in echelon. To cut off the escape routes of Chinese refugees, the occupation of North Guizhou was planned, which could be used to stage an attack on Chengdu through Yibin.

        The north Japanese army division had the option to either advance towards south Shaanxi to capture Xian, or towards Hangzhong to take Chengdu directly. Alternatively, Japan could have utilized airborne forces to cut off Chinese escape routes and take the Chongqing metropolitan area directly.


        Sichuan Invasion Japanese plan

        According to General Chiang Wei-kuo, should the invasion be successful, the Japanese might have intended to put Wang Chingwei's puppet regime in charge of Chongqing. The Japanese might also persuade Chiang Kai-shek to join Japan's Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere and to even assist in a future Japanese offensive against the Soviet Union in Siberia and Central Asia. Another possibility was the installation of a Japanese civilian or military Governor-General to administer the area as an Imperial Japanese Army fief in mainland Asia, which could later be expanded to include Tibet and Xinjiang as well.

        Factors affecting the Sichuan InvasionDue to opposition against Japan from other Allied countries, the Sichuan Invasion was not enthusiastically carried out. In particular, the United States' counter-offensive against Japan heavily undermined the possibility of an invasion. Chiang Kai Shek stated:

        But in June 1942, Japanese forces suffered the humiliating defeat in the Battle of Midway, and in August the U.S. forces initiated the counteroffensive against the Solomon Islands, with a landing at Tenaru River, Guadalcanal (Operation Watchtower). The Japanese suffered frequent losses at the end of September 1942, and decided to delay the implement of invasion plan for Sichuan. Later in November, the Japanese forces having been totally defeated in Guadalcanal, (Battle of Guadalcanal, Battle of Tassafaronga and Battle of Rennel), the situation was turned around, with Japan losing all possibility to transfer with impunity its forces in the area (the Japanese were obliged to used all disposable vessels in their retreat, "Operation KE" during the night of February 1-2 1943, the last part of the so-called "Tokyo Express"). At the end of 1942, the planning for the Sichuan Invasion was suspended.


        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan_invasion

        I'm inclined to think the Japanese would have a realistic chance of sucess without the Pacific War...
        Last edited by Jenisch; 22 Nov 11, 10:29.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
          Which Western countries would still be helping Japan, please?
          I don't know if we would likely see Lend Lease here, but perhaps the US and Britain would at least keep selling arms to the Chinese. This of course, would represent a problem for the already battered Chinese economy. Together with the increased Japanese military pressure, I think this perhaps this would be crtictical for the Chinese to seek peace or be defeat.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Jenisch View Post
            I don't know if we would see Lend Lease here, but perhaps the US and Britain would at least keep selling arms to the Chinese. This of course, would represent a problem for the already battered Chinese economy. Together with the increased Japanese military pressure, I think this perhaps this would be crtictical for the Chinese to seek peace or be defeat.
            So which Western countries would "still" be helping the Japanese, please.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
              So which Western countries would "still" be helping the Japanese, please.
              The US provided most of the oil and several strategical materials to the Japanese. Since the US would likely remain isolacionist in this scenario, why do you think they would look for an embargo which could lead to war with Japan? Also, the actual embargo was caused in part because fuel rationing already started in the US. This scenario would not be very likely with Britain not facing any danger.
              Last edited by Jenisch; 22 Nov 11, 10:45.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Jenisch View Post
                The US provided most of the oil and several strategical materials to the Japanese. Since the US would likely remain isolacionist in this scenario, why do you think they would look for an embargo which could lead to war with Japan? Also, the actual embargo was caused in part because fuel rationing already started in the US. This scenario would not be very likely with Britain not facing any danger.
                Well, we stopped supplying oil and strategic materials to the Japanese because they were fighting the war in China.

                As for an isolationist America, that's largely mythology. By mid-1941 we were resigned to the fact that the US would be fighting Germany AND Japan.

                Fuel was not rationed in the US so far as I know, but we were trying to build up our strategic reserve, because we were building a two-ocean Navy to fight Germany AND Japan.
                Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                Hyperwar, Whats New
                World War II Resources
                The best place in the world to "work".

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                  Well, we stopped supplying oil and strategic materials to the Japanese because they were fighting the war in China.
                  That is exactly the problem here: in order for Japan to avoid war with the USA it must end its war in China.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                    That is exactly the problem here: in order for Japan to avoid war with the USA it must end its war in China.
                    And the militarists didn't want to end it without a victory. There was no exit strategy. The "Magic" documents are replete with comments like "the US does not understand our true intentions". What they meant was "We get China."
                    Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                    Hyperwar, Whats New
                    World War II Resources
                    The best place in the world to "work".

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                      Well, we stopped supplying oil and strategic materials to the Japanese because they were fighting the war in China.

                      As for an isolationist America, that's largely mythology. By mid-1941 we were resigned to the fact that the US would be fighting Germany AND Japan.

                      Fuel was not rationed in the US so far as I know, but we were trying to build up our strategic reserve, because we were building a two-ocean Navy to fight Germany AND Japan.
                      Fuel was not rationed until a few weeks after the Pearl Harbor attack.
                      "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jenisch View Post

                        I'm inclined to think the Japanese would have a realistic chance of sucess without the Pacific War...
                        The Japanese wartime logistics train was even more primative than that of the USSR, relying largely upon horse drawn transport. The only heavy duty trucks in their military inventory that were worth anything, were those captured from the British Commonwealth and American forces when Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines fell to them.

                        Throughout the entire war, the Japanese logistics train always broke down, the farther away its army traveled from their primary bases of supply. They simply lacked a way of sustaining a large, modern army in the field, in the long term, once it outran its lines of supply. The Japanese Army Engineer Corps lacked virtually all of the heavy equipment and amenities in its table of organization and equipment that were commonly used by Allied Armies in the field. As a result, it was very hard for the Japanese to build or improve roads, let alone, quickly re-build a blown bridge across a key river, in order to keep their far flung, army spearheads supplied with rice and bullets.
                        "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by johnbryan View Post
                          Fuel was not rationed until a few weeks after the Pearl Harbor attack.
                          Thanks, I thought as much, but didn't want to go off without checking the books on that.

                          The Dragon Lady, T.V. Soong, and their helpers, made sure that China stayed in the news. We did not lose sight of what was happening there, so it would have to be a very large departure from this time line for any Western country to favor Japan over China at this time.
                          Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                          Hyperwar, Whats New
                          World War II Resources
                          The best place in the world to "work".

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                            Well, we stopped supplying oil and strategic materials to the Japanese because they were fighting the war in China.

                            As for an isolationist America, that's largely mythology. By mid-1941 we were resigned to the fact that the US would be fighting Germany AND Japan.

                            Fuel was not rationed in the US so far as I know, but we were trying to build up our strategic reserve, because we were building a two-ocean Navy to fight Germany AND Japan.
                            Have you noticed he hasn't given you any answer in post #7? It's because he doesn't know anything about it, and because the West provided very little military and technical aid to speak of. Most of it came from the Soviet Union, but I guess he wouldn't like to speak about it.

                            The total amount of Soviet aid to the [Nationalist] Chinese from 1937 to 1941 was 1285 airplanes, 1600 guns of various calibers, 82 tanks, 1850 transpot vehicles and tractors, 14 000 machineguns.

                            In 1938 the Soviet government gave the Chinese a loan of 100 mln dollars, in 1939 150 mln dollars, in 1940 - 200 mln dollars.

                            About 5000 Soviet miliary advisors, doctors and technicians visited China in the end of the 1930s. Among them was the future hero of Stalingrad, Vassily Chuikov, who was the chief military advisor of the Chinese army.

                            Source: History of Soviet-Chinese relations. V.Opolev
                            www.histours.ru

                            Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                              Have you noticed he hasn't given you any answer in post #7? It's because he doesn't know anything about it, and because the West provided very little military and technical aid to speak of. Most of it came from the Soviet Union, but I guess he wouldn't like to speak about it.
                              Yeah, I seldom see a what-if that doesn't require a tortuous amount of changing history around to the point where Mickey Mouse could be running against FDR in 1940.
                              Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                              Hyperwar, Whats New
                              World War II Resources
                              The best place in the world to "work".

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