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  • Questions about Israeli airforce raid on Sudan ?

    Hi everyone. I think some of you may have heard of the IAF raid on the Iranian-run ballistic missiles factory in Sudan that occurred at 24th of October using F-15s.

    I have got some questions and hope somebody can answer them for me.
    At first, I'm from Egypt as obvious, and today morning we heard some jets breaking the sound barrier above north and east Cairo and there are spread rumors here that they were Israelis F-16s. So, that's why "the week old" raid came into my mind.

    My questions here are simple, I will put them in numbers to make them easier to answer.

    1- It is known that the Sudanese air defense capability is nothing they can be proud of, but isn't it at least able to detect and shot down four aging F-15s attacking its capital ?

    2- I have little information about Egyptian air defenses, but could it be anyhow true that Israelis F-16s could get that far into Egypt without being detected and shot down ?

    3- One last question, how air defenses actually work ? Are they covering the borders only, or the whole country area ?

  • #2
    Background and previous discussions here - http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...d.php?t=128826

    I'll let those more knowledgeable on air warfare answer the other questions but as to #3, With the exception of Israel, I doubt there are many countries with complete air defense coverage of their entire territory. Unless your country is very small, very rich, or both it is too expensive. Generally only important areas are covered by air defense systems.
    Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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    • #3
      2. Yes, it's possible, even without stealth aircraft - fly low enough, and you MIGHT be able to avoid radar detection (look at the opening shots of the Six-Day War, and the strike on the Iraqi nuclear facility - the Israelis know how to fly low and fast). Plus, take into account other factors, such as other aircraft in the sky (the Israelis could technically use different IFF codes), problems with the radar, nobody competent at the radar (unlikely, though), etc.
      "The Bangalore Torpedo was 50' long and packed with 85 pounds of TNT and you assembled it along the way. By hand. I'd love to meet the ******* who invented it."

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      • #4
        Originally posted by BCap View Post
        2. Yes, it's possible, even without stealth aircraft - fly low enough, and you MIGHT be able to avoid radar detection (look at the opening shots of the Six-Day War, and the strike on the Iraqi nuclear facility - the Israelis know how to fly low and fast). Plus, take into account other factors, such as other aircraft in the sky (the Israelis could technically use different IFF codes), problems with the radar, nobody competent at the radar (unlikely, though), etc.
        Yes, you are correct. It is still very unlikely because we are not in war, it's just too risky to count on radar problems and flying low and fast. There isn't a purpose of doing so. Thanks for the answer

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Hurricane93 View Post
          1- It is known that the Sudanese air defense capability is nothing they can be proud of, but isn't it at least able to detect and shot down four aging F-15s attacking its capital ?

          Well, one must first consider their air defenses, which are equally aging, and likely of the type that the original F-15 was designed to work around. You must also consider their level of training and readiness. A pre-emptive strike catches air defenses at a low state of readiness, and I doubt the Sudanese are up to Yugoslavian standards, much less the near-insane level of paranoia of the Israelis themselves.

          Secondly, one must also remember that the Israelis are no slouches when it comes to upgrading aircraft. They are major developers of modern UAVs (the gulf war I used Israeli-designed UAVs quite a bit), and they are well known for upgrading their aircraft. Their F-16s are arguably the most advanced in the world, and there's no reason to think their F-15s are any different. Their pilots are also world-class, and nothing the Sudanese AF has could likely stand up to a well-maintained F-15 flown by a trained pilot.

          Third you must consider payload. You don't need a lot of bombs to pull this mission off, meaning that each F-15 can carry a number of jamming pods and other systems to make life even more difficult for the Sudanese.

          Yes, it's entirely possible. Also consider that the Israelis did similar things with decidedly slow, loud, and unstealthy C-130s in the past. F-15s would be considered a cakewalk.

          2- I have little information about Egyptian air defenses, but could it be anyhow true that Israelis F-16s could get that far into Egypt without being detected and shot down ?

          Possible. Not entirely likely. Especially not over a population center as I'm assuming you live in. As has been said, no nation, unless their small and rich, has a full umbrella of radar coverage. And your neighbors are likely to know your gaps. But that being said, the odds are good that those weren't Israeli planes. No reason to wantonly provoke the Egyptian military into action for no discernible gain. And the Israelis aren't the tail-twisting types. Normally you start to freak out when they're not talking....because that means that something spectacular is about to occur......

          3- One last question, how air defenses actually work ? Are they covering the borders only, or the whole country area ?
          They cover zones. Normally radar coverage extends beyond the border, to what extent is decided by terrain, threat, and available funding. You can't cover everything, so you cover the strategic points, such as ports, airbases, bases, oil fields, strategic population centers, etc. Israel is small enough to most likely have a full 'umbrella' of radar. Egypt is likely to only have the densely populated and militarily vital areas covered. In the US and other large countries there are holes in radar coverage...their existence is common knowledge....their locations are not so much.
          Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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          • #6
            More likely, the Israelis simply chose commercial flight routes and then had their aircraft transponders set to mimic some commercial plane. Flying in very close formation they would appear as one on radar and the operators, given a peacetime mentality would have thought nothing of them.

            That is one reasonable explaination.

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            • #7
              I really doubt they were supersonic as that would eat up too much fuel.

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              • #8
                If the Israelis flew through Egyptian airspace then it would be most likely that whatever passes for an Egyptian government greenlighted the Israeli transit. Egypt is almost bankrupt. When you are broke you do what you are told. Gotta swallow the pride. No cash? You are someones bitch, etc.

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                • #9
                  Do you know for sure that the F16's were not from your own Air Force? They have about 150 F16s

                  http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...-equipment.htm
                  "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                  Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                  you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                    Do you know for sure that the F16's were not from your own Air Force? They have about 150 F16s

                    http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...-equipment.htm
                    I personally think they were Egyptian F-16's and some military officials here said it was a training exercise in the urban areas. But there are somethings that made us doubt what they said. At first it happened at 6 A.M., the jets were very low flying and exceeded Mach 1, and if you don't know, it was the third day of the feast here in Egypt so there are no exercises over urban areas in vacations like these (It's like Christmas for you)

                    Note : I'm not Muslim, if that would change anything anyhow.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Hurricane93 View Post
                      I personally think they were Egyptian F-16's and some military officials here said it was a training exercise in the urban areas. But there are somethings that made us doubt what they said. At first it happened at 6 A.M., the jets were very low flying and exceeded Mach 1, and if you don't know, it was the third day of the feast here in Egypt so there are no exercises over urban areas in vacations like these (It's like Christmas for you)

                      Note : I'm not Muslim, if that would change anything anyhow.
                      Eh, they could quite possibly be. If you'll note, your military isn't exactly on outstanding terms with your civil government. Of course if your airspace were penetrated, then they would also deny that allegation as it would undermine their legitimacy and remaining power.

                      I think they were Egyptian, as there's not much of a reason for Israeli planes to breach Egyptian airspace. If they were Israeli, then odds are good that they had at least tacit approval for the overflight. As for reasons, if the Israelis are doing something to limit Persian influence, it would be mutually beneficial, and Egypt would likely want to have plausible deniability. The Dar al Islam is secondary to the ancient distrust between Arabs and their neighbors versus the Persians.

                      And no, it really makes no difference. Some of us do have privileged information, or obtained it over the years through our service and such. We're very good about not revealing anything that's not considered publicly available or antiquated. No offense to anyone from a foreign power, it's just good sense and part of things that some of us signed.
                      Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                      • #12
                        So, there is concrete proof that Israel caused the explosions at the Sudan factory?
                        The First Amendment applies to SMS, Emails, Blogs, online news, the Fourth applies to your cell phone, computer, and your car, but the Second only applies to muskets?

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                        • #13
                          Not really - just motive, means and opportunity.

                          There's a similar thread with some interesting links btw.
                          Lambert of Montaigu - Crusader.

                          Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Hida Akechi View Post
                            So, there is concrete proof that Israel caused the explosions at the Sudan factory?
                            No. Just speculation and a review of the usual suspects.

                            How have relations between Egypt and Sudan been? Any animosity or open disputes?
                            Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

                            Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

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                            • #15
                              Yeah, I'm part of that discussion too. Thanks.
                              The First Amendment applies to SMS, Emails, Blogs, online news, the Fourth applies to your cell phone, computer, and your car, but the Second only applies to muskets?

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