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Most Likely Division-size Conflict in next year

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  • Most Likely Division-size Conflict in next year

    Within the next twelve months, what two countries are most likely to engage in division vs. division ground combat? I go with India and Pakistan, because of the endless tension, and because elements in either country might want to take advantage of Pakistan's ongoing problems.

    Sorry, I think I was not clear. I meant at least division size units on each side.
    21
    US/Iran
    0.00%
    0
    North Korea/South Korea
    4.76%
    1
    India/Pakistan
    9.52%
    2
    China/Taiwan
    0.00%
    0
    Israel/Syria
    14.29%
    3
    Russia/China
    0.00%
    0
    Britain/Argentina
    4.76%
    1
    Iraq/Iran
    4.76%
    1
    US/Russia
    0.00%
    0
    India/China
    0.00%
    0
    Other
    61.90%
    13

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by lakechampainer; 12 Mar 10, 13:07.

  • #2
    So two divisions, that about 30,000 people.

    None! If any then larger. And about the only one on your list is UK/Argentine.
    "Ask not what your country can do for you"

    Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

    you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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    • #3
      I am with Half Pint John.

      None of those in the next year with UK/Argentina being a long shot.
      "I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
      George Mason
      Co-author of the Second Amendment
      during Virginia’s Convention to Ratify the Constitution, 1788

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      • #4
        Other: Israel vs. Hezbollah

        Hezbollah are no longer classical insurgents. They effectively fielded two (+) infantry brigades in the 2006 conflict with significant additional support units.
        Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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        • #5
          Voted other as in none.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by GCoyote View Post
            Hezbollah are no longer classical insurgents. They effectively fielded two (+) infantry brigades in the 2006 conflict with significant additional support units.
            Israel is still psychologically not ready for another round in Lebanon, no matter how or how much Hizballah and Iran will provoke.

            I voted other- none as well.

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            • #7
              I also voted "other" for none.
              "The blade itself incites to deeds of violence".

              Homer


              BoRG

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              • #8
                Gotta go with the consensus, none.
                Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy. -- Ernest Benn

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                • #9
                  I almost went with the consensus, but that's just not my way.

                  Had to pick Iran/Iraq, as in a Iranian attack on Iran once the US pulls out. Yeah, we have 14 months to go, but close enough.
                  And yeah, it would be a totally irrational move... like that makes a difference to the Mullahs these days.

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                  • #10
                    I think this could be a far more interesting discussion if we remove the 12 month restriction... Most people agree the likelier thing is that there isn't any next year. But there will be one eventually, and predicting the next time it happens could be very interesting.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Castro View Post
                      I think this could be a far more interesting discussion if we remove the 12 month restriction... Most people agree the likelier thing is that there isn't any next year. But there will be one eventually, and predicting the next time it happens could be very interesting.
                      Good Point.

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                      • #12
                        Still voted North/South Korea.
                        "A foolish man thinks he knows everything if placed in unexpected difficulty; but he knows not what to answer, if to the test he is put."

                        --Hávamál

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                        • #13
                          Other... I'm for Chavez vs Colombia. I'm not only sure about the number of troops. Maybe it will be a clash at battalions level, maybe till divisions... I don't know...
                          A ME LE GUARDIE
                          "Di noi tremň la nostra vecchia gloria. Tre secoli di fede e una vittoria". Gabriele D'Annunzio

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                          • #14
                            Africa, but not division size

                            While I expect most of the future conflicts to erupt in Africa,
                            (BTW have you noticed there is an Africa subforum within 'Current Events'?
                            I do not envisage any of these to be so regular as to be on division level.
                            I rather expect these African conflicts to be diffuse while at the same time the range as well as the impact of them can be huge
                            BoRG

                            You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by MajorSennef View Post
                              While I expect most of the future conflicts to erupt in Africa,
                              (BTW have you noticed there is an Africa subforum within 'Current Events'?
                              I do not envisage any of these to be so regular as to be on division level.
                              I rather expect these African conflicts to be diffuse while at the same time the range as well as the impact of them can be huge
                              Many African conflicts aren't even government gov on gov, they're mostly government on rebels, and the governments don't really have divisions and the rebels are just mobbed together.
                              "A foolish man thinks he knows everything if placed in unexpected difficulty; but he knows not what to answer, if to the test he is put."

                              --Hávamál

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