Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Which of these events are likely to happen geopolitcally

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Which of these events are likely to happen geopolitcally

    which of these events are likely to happen geopolitcally and what will their effects be?


    China invades Taiwan shortly after the 2008 Olympics and succeds.

    North Korea invades South Korea.

    The Saudi Monarchy is overthrown by a Islamic Revolution and replaced with a Goverment which is strongly anti-American and anti-Western.

    A large scale terrorist attack occurs in the United States.

    A large scale terrorist attack occurs somewhere in Western Europe.

    Iran moves into Iraq after a US withdrawl.

    Hugo Chavez announces the forming of a Latin American Pact or Union that is anti-American and anti-Captalist.

    The Columbian Goverment is overthrown by FARC and their supporting organizations and groups with support from the Venezuelan Goverment.
    Last edited by Kevin23; 26 Aug 07, 11:50.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
    which of these events are likely to happen geopolitcally and what will their effects be?


    China invades Taiwan shortly after the 2008 Olympics and succeds.

    North Korea invades South Korea.

    The Saudi Monarchy is overthrown by a Islamic Revolution and replaced with a Goverment which is strongly anti-American and anti-Western.

    A large scale terrorist attack occurs in the United States.

    A large scale terrorist attack occurs somewhere in Western Europe.

    Iran moves into Irq after a US withdrawl.

    Hugo Chavez announces the forming of a Latin American Pact or Union that is anti-American and anti-Captalist.

    The Columbian Goverment is overthrown by FARC and their supporting organizations and groups with support from the Venezuelan Goverment.
    Only had a few minutes to think about it but i think the terrorist attacks in US and europe are more likely, but it is difficult to imagine what excactly will transpire with all of the above.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
      which of these events are likely to happen geopolitcally and what will their effects be? . . . .
      Already in progress:
      Hugo Chavez announces the forming of a Latin American Pact or Union that is anti-American and anti-Captalist. He's been working with that other South American powerhouse, Bolivia, to undermine essentially everything that that might potentially benefit the US in particular or democracy and free markets in general.

      Most Likely:
      A large scale terrorist attack occurs somewhere in Western Europe.
      A large scale terrorist attack occurs in the United States.

      More a matter of when than if.


      Still Possible:
      The Saudi Monarchy is overthrown by a Islamic Revolution and replaced with a Goverment which is strongly anti-American and anti-Western.
      The Saudis have a large Shiite population and worry about this one all the time.
      The Columbian Goverment is overthrown by FARC and their supporting organizations and groups with support from the Venezuelan Goverment.
      FARC has been losing ground for several years but they have a steady supply of drug money to pay their gunmen and if they get serious about their leftist politics again they might get Venezuelan help.
      Iran moves into Iraq after a US withdrawl
      That's what we are negotiating with the Iranian over right now. Stay tuned.

      Not Likely:
      North Korea invades South Korea.
      The entire nuclear stunt was primarily to get more attention and aid from the outside world. This is a regime on very shaky ground.

      Don't Think So:
      China invades Taiwan shortly after the 2008 Olympics and succeds.
      Taiwan is not a threat and serves as a useful rallying point for Chinese patriotism. In another decade, the Chinese will probably just buy the whole island.
      Last edited by GCoyote; 25 Aug 07, 18:38.
      Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

      Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by GCoyote View Post
        Already in progress:
        Hugo Chavez announces the forming of a Latin American Pact or Union that is anti-American and anti-Captalist. He's been working with that other South American powerhouse, Bolivia, to undermine essentially everything that that might potentially benefit the US in particular or democracy and free markets in general.

        Most Likely:
        A large scale terrorist attack occurs somewhere in Western Europe.
        A large scale terrorist attack occurs in the United States.

        More a matter of when than if.


        Still Possible:
        The Saudi Monarchy is overthrown by a Islamic Revolution and replaced with a Goverment which is strongly anti-American and anti-Western.
        The Saudis have a large Shiite population and worry about this one all the time.
        The Columbian Goverment is overthrown by FARC and their supporting organizations and groups with support from the Venezuelan Goverment.
        FARC has been losing ground for several years but they have a steady supply of drug money to pay their gunmen and if they get serious about their leftist politics again they might get Venezuelan help.
        Iran moves into Iraq after a US withdrawl
        That's what we are negotiating with the Iranian over right now. Stay tuned.

        Not Likely:
        North Korea invades South Korea.
        The entire nuclear stunt was primarily to get more attention and aid from the outside world. This is a regime on very shaky ground.

        Don't Think So:
        China invades Taiwan shortly after the 2008 Olympics and succeds.
        Taiwan is not a threat and serves as a useful rallying point for Chinese patriotism. In another decade, the Chinese will probably just buy the whole island.
        With North Korea,If Kim lands on even more shaky ground which endangers his grip on power,I could see him seeing nothing to lose with an invasion of South Korea

        Comment


        • #5
          Also how do these possible conflicts look?

          Ethnic tensions reaching a boiling point in South Africa due to AIDs, crime and several economic problems along with renewed Afrikaner and Black nationalism.(Unlikely at the current time but may very well happen in the future)

          The forming of an anti-western Axis by Russia(maybe), China, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran and Syria along with any other nations that feel threated by the West especially by The US

          Invasion of North Korea by China after Kim Jong ll falls out of favor with Bejing.(Unlikely)

          Aggression upon other Pacific nations by a new milteristic Japanese goverment which is brought into power following the reunification of Korea and a Asian economic crsis(Unlikely at the current time but could happen in the future)
          Last edited by Kevin23; 26 Aug 07, 00:23.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
            Also how do these possible conflicts look?
            Ethnic tensions reaching a boiling point in South Africa due to AIDs, crime and several economic problems along with renewed Afrikaner and Black nationalism.(Unlikely at the current time but may very well happen in the future)
            The tensions in South Africa are more likely to be related to the influx of refugees and illegal immigrants swarming across from Zimbabwe. Mugabe's track record is that when the country is almost about to collapse, blame <insert latest opposition group> for all the troubles, round up, beat up and confiscate what little property they still have.

            Aggression upon other Pacific nations by a new milteristic Japanese goverment which is brought into power following the reunification of Korea and a Asian economic crsis(Unlikely at the current time but could hppen in the future)
            I think I posted a long time ago about the influence the Chinese had on the Kiribati elections, and their rising influence in Oceania and the South Pacific. China is now Australia's largest trading partner, and Western Australia has been visited by the Premier, Prime Minister and head of the Labor Organisation of China at various stages. Specifically so they can strengthen ties with the Western australian resources industry.

            If China goes into the power projection game, it is more likely countries like Kiribati will offer them harbours and facilities, rather than turning to the US for help. Japan does not have the economic clout anymore to match China's military build up, and with the diplomatic goodwill China has built up in the region, any adventurism from the Japanese would be met with Chinese reprisals.

            The PRC is a hegemonic power on the rise, and while it makes the Little Dragons nervous, China's attentions atm seem aimed at securing their resource future (so perhaps eyeing Siberia; hence the increased Russian flights over the Atlantic), and promoting their economic agenda.
            Now listening too;
            - Russell Robertson, ruining whatever credibility my football team once had.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
              With North Korea,If Kim lands on even more shaky ground which endangers his grip on power,I could see him seeing nothing to lose with an invasion of South Korea
              Kevin,
              Don't argue with GCoyete on this stuff. If you're lucky enough to get into that University, he may be one of your Prof's.
              My Avatar: Ivan W. Henderson Gunner/navigator B-25-26. 117 combat missions. Both Theaters. 11 confirmed kills. DSC.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by holly6 View Post
                Kevin,
                Don't argue with GCoyete on this stuff. If you're lucky enough to get into that University, he may be one of your Prof's.
                People who know me in real life would tell you the same thing about me.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Great comments Ivan.

                  Originally posted by Ivan Rapkinov View Post
                  The tensions in South Africa are more likely to be related to the influx of refugees and illegal immigrants swarming across from Zimbabwe. Mugabe's track record is that when the country is almost about to collapse, blame <insert latest opposition group> for all the troubles, round up, beat up and confiscate what little property they still have.
                  Good point - Rulers like Mugabe historically suppress any and all organized opposition leaving a power vacuum when they themselves eventually pass.

                  Originally posted by Ivan Rapkinov View Post
                  I think I posted a long time ago about the influence the Chinese had on the Kiribati elections, and their rising influence in Oceania and the South Pacific. China is now Australia's largest trading partner, and Western Australia has been visited by the Premier, Prime Minister and head of the Labor Organisation of China at various stages. Specifically so they can strengthen ties with the Western Australian resources industry.
                  Assuming they survive their unbalanced economic growth and the resulting social tensions, China could eventually be every one's largest trading partner. Not necessarily a bad thing, trading partners don't like to start wars in their largest markets.
                  Originally posted by Ivan Rapkinov View Post
                  If China goes into the power projection game, it is more likely countries like Kiribati will offer them harbours and facilities, rather than turning to the US for help. Japan does not have the economic clout anymore to match China's military build up, and with the diplomatic goodwill China has built up in the region, any adventurism from the Japanese would be met with Chinese reprisals.
                  Didn't Vanuatu play off the US and Soviets for basing rights for a number of years? Can't remember now.
                  Originally posted by Ivan Rapkinov View Post
                  The PRC is a hegemonic power on the rise, and while it makes the Little Dragons nervous, China's attentions atm seem aimed at securing their resource future (so perhaps eyeing Siberia; hence the increased Russian flights over the Atlantic), and promoting their economic agenda.
                  People who describe US behavior as "hegemonic" haven't seen anything yet. The Chinese have a two thousand year advantage in learning and understanding how to be "imperial".
                  Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

                  Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Also one of the reasons I mentioned South Africa was because of the fact that Jacob Zuma who strongly embraces socialist ideals and seems disturbly like Mad Man Bob who rules the nation to the north stands a good chance of becoming South Africa's next President. So I'm sure some of the more right wing elements of white South Africa are not going to be too happy about this.
                    Last edited by Kevin23; 26 Aug 07, 22:06.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
                      Also one of the reasons I mentioned South Africa was because of the fact that Jacob Zuma who strongly embraces socialist ideals and seems disturbly like Mad Man Bob who rules the nation to the north stands a good chance of becoming South Africa's next President. So I'm sure some of the more right wing elements of white South Africa are not going to be too happy about this.
                      Black South Africans who own property are probably not going to be too pleased either.
                      Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

                      Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Kevin23 View Post
                        Also one of the reasons I mentioned South Africa was because of the fact that Jacob Zuma who strongly embraces socialist ideals and seems disturbly like Mad Man Bob who rules the nation to the north stands a good chance of becoming South Africa's next President. So I'm sure some of the more right wing elements of white South Africa are not going to be too happy about this.
                        Well, Zuma is always going to be a popular candidate due to the fact he's a Zulu. But the rape case and corruption hearing will have hurt his image with the Xhosa and ofc the English and Afrikaaners. Not sure what the Indian population thinks of him to be honest.

                        Also not sure how South Africa's electoral system works; whether it's one vote,one value, or representative. Having his power base centralised in KwaZulu should hurt him if it's based on number of seats held. He'd also have issues with the armed forces and police if he tried anything like Mugabe, simply because they're still the bastions of white supremacy in the country - and I don't mean supremacy in references to racial issues, but supremacy in regards to political thought. Even the Zulus in the SAPS tend to adopt a hardline conservative viewpoint, most likely a legacy of the academy environment.
                        Now listening too;
                        - Russell Robertson, ruining whatever credibility my football team once had.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ivan Rapkinov View Post
                          Well, Zuma is always going to be a popular candidate due to the fact he's a Zulu. But the rape case and corruption hearing will have hurt his image with the Xhosa and ofc the English and Afrikaaners. Not sure what the Indian population thinks of him to be honest.

                          Also not sure how South Africa's electoral system works; whether it's one vote,one value, or representative. Having his power base centralised in KwaZulu should hurt him if it's based on number of seats held. He'd also have issues with the armed forces and police if he tried anything like Mugabe, simply because they're still the bastions of white supremacy in the country - and I don't mean supremacy in references to racial issues, but supremacy in regards to political thought. Even the Zulus in the SAPS tend to adopt a hardline conservative viewpoint, most likely a legacy of the academy environment.
                          Still things can happen,Also when people like this guy take power they usually never let go also there pretty much is no politcal opposition to the ANC in South Africa. In addtion Zuma is much more well known politically then many of the other ANC runner ups for the Presidency.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Here is more I thought up that could happen, Most of them would be considered unlikely though.


                            Due to various issues with mainly Muslim immigrants the European far right gains traction in some European nations.

                            Quebec secedes from Canada.

                            Scotland secedes from the United Kingdom.

                            President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is overthrown by Islamic Fundamentalists

                            A worldwide economic downturn or depression occurs.

                            Comment

                            Latest Topics

                            Collapse

                            Working...
                            X