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Speculate the big point of conflict in 20 years

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  • Speculate the big point of conflict in 20 years

    We don't appear to have a section devoted to conjecture of conflicts 10 or more years forward, so I put it in here.

    Anyway, for sake of argument, speculate that the whole Iraq scene becomes similar to the Falklands, just something to discuss as old history. And look forward 20 years (that would be 2028 I guess).

    Does anyone have any idea, what might be possibly brewing, that might become a source of friction if allowed to simmer and nothing else is able to side track attention from it?

    I personally think water is going to be a matter of friction potentially. We all need it, and no one can do without it.

    I'm leaving the floor open to other notions to be claimed before I let my imagination wander further.
    Life is change. Built models for decades.
    Not sure anyone here actually knows the real me.
    I didn't for a long time either.

  • #2
    Within 20 years, I believe the US and China will clash over Taiwan. Within that timeframe, China's population will be eclipsed by India. And China's GNP will have surpassed Japan's. Chinese military force modernization will allow her to challenge US hegemony in her sphere of influence.
    Leadership is the ability to rise above conventional wisdom.

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    • #3
      My expectations:

      The Chinese will be fine and behave, unless the Taiwanese do something stupid. That's really the least problem. They know that the best way to being strong is not getting into fights.

      The big thing might be that some Arab countries, possibly with Iran, finally team up and buy weapons from Russia, which will base half of their economy on weapons sold to those countries payed for by American SUV owners and New England fluffy home owners with oil heating.

      India I don't know what will happen, but it is more likely to go KABOOM than better. I don't think a spread of Islam into India is likely, though.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Aries View Post
        I personally think water is going to be a matter of friction potentially. We all need it, and no one can do without it.
        That must be a story that gets around in your neck of the woods. My Canadian wife says her father (a military officer) always believed there would someday be a war between the USA and Canada over the fresh water supply.
        --Patrick Carroll


        "Do all you have agreed to do, and do not encroach on other persons or their property." (Richard Maybury)

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        • #5
          New England fluffy home owners with oil heating.
          Does their heating cost more than the AC of the mid-west, Bible belt, Deep South, Far West?

          You ever try to cool a house with an open fire place? They do have some alternatives for heating.

          HP
          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

          you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Patrick Carroll View Post
            That must be a story that gets around in your neck of the woods. My Canadian wife says her father (a military officer) always believed there would someday be a war between the USA and Canada over the fresh water supply.

            We share one of the greatest supplies of sweet water in the world, the Great Lakes. I see no problem between the two countries, as long as all the FOOL's don't continue to demand green lawns and golf courses in the middle of the desert.

            Do note Canada doesn't have desert golf courses.

            HP
            "Ask not what your country can do for you"

            Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

            you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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            • #7
              It's a myth, that fresh "usable" drinking water is everywhere. It's true that fresh ie not salt water is plentiful in Canada though. But I wouldn't be going and saying it is in readily no need for modification usable condition currently.

              The real deal though, is the entire world is consuming it's deep surface fresh water supplies at an alarming rate. The stuff is finite, and takes a very long time to rebuild (but no time at all to pump out).

              What's the world going to do when it starts finding out what we always stupidly thought was always just there, turns out to not be always just there.

              And while Canada and the US might be able to resolve their own mutual needs in a mutual friendly fashion, this might not apply to the world's other grain belts.
              Life is change. Built models for decades.
              Not sure anyone here actually knows the real me.
              I didn't for a long time either.

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              • #8
                Population always eventually causes trouble when the numbers exceed the amount that can be dealt with.

                I think if China and India continue to rapidly expand in total numbers, they will eventually have internal strains that will create troubles, even if it is just internal stresses.
                Life is change. Built models for decades.
                Not sure anyone here actually knows the real me.
                I didn't for a long time either.

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                • #9
                  I think that any conflict will be in
                  1. China -> India conflict
                  2. India -> Pakistan conflict
                  3. China -> Taiwan

                  The largest population growth in in the Far East and this would create strains on infrastructure. Especially in India and China.

                  Didn't ACG have an article on this?

                  Pakistan and India might have a conflict over Kashmir, especially all the fresh water in the glaciers.

                  Africa isn't developed enough to have a serious conflict. South America isn't a hot-bed of conflict. Yet. North America might have a conflict over fresh-water but de-salinisation plants are always and option.
                  Russia could be going free-wheeling in a nationalist spiral. Could.

                  The Middle East, after the oil runs out, could become an Islamic Africa. Roiling in turmoil as all the wealth is elsewhere. Dubai is set though...
                  For despite the silly sayings about violence never settling anything, history IS changed on the battlefield: ask the National Socialist German Workers' Party.
                  -Jerry Pournelle-
                  Introduction to 'Hammer's Slammers'

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                  • #10
                    China will take Siberia. The mineral resources will be wanted for Chinas industry, the land for living space, the forrests, ect... Russia will not have the economic or military power to make a serious defense.

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                    • #11
                      Good points on water being a source of contention in the future. I agree that it will be a major factor in future confilcts.

                      My prediction:

                      Mexico will face a major insurgency war with their drug cartels. Corruption and money will fuel a civil war that will spill (moderately) into the South Western U.S. It won't become a major problem for the U.S., but it will make Mexican immigration an even bigger issue.
                      "Nations are never content to confine their rivalships and enmities to themselves. It is their usual policy to disseminate them as widely, as they can, regardless how far it may interfere with the tranquility or happiness of the nations which they are able to influence." -- Alexander Hamilton

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Half Pint View Post
                        We share one of the greatest supplies of sweet water in the world, the Great Lakes. I see no problem between the two countries, as long as all the FOOL's don't continue to demand green lawns and golf courses in the middle of the desert.

                        Do note Canada doesn't have desert golf courses.

                        HP
                        Actually we are already feuding with the Canadians over it. The US overdraws their quota regularly because they insist expanding populations have increasing needs.
                        plus unfrotunately the great lakes have shrunk in the past 10-20 years because of decreasing snowfall in the catchment areas.

                        Not that I'm saying there will be a fight over it. The Canadians tend to back down -- such as with their demands for lumber taxes collected in the US, for which hte US owed them $3 B

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                        • #13
                          Oh. My two cents: In 20 years, the GWOT will still be on. Every other war will be absorbed to incorporate the GWOT.

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                          • #14
                            Let's think a little farther out of the box . . .

                            The Chinese won't have to invade Taiwan - The'll be able to buy it outright in 20 years or less.

                            The Indo-Chinese border is very rugged and I'm not aware of any significant resources there worth fighing a nuclear power over. Sea-control and access to the resources of South Asia could become points of conflict. My guess is that Indian and Chinese aircraft carriers are not being aquired to use against the USN.

                            A few more likely scenarios:

                            China invades N. Korea - If the DPRK continues to deteriorate the Chinese would be faced with a potential refugee crisis that might destabilize parts of China. Korean unification would create stronger regional competetion that the Chinese might wish to avoid. Solution? Establish a 'humanitarian relief effort' that looks a lot like the PLA [with special blue armbands ] and administer northern Korea for the next hundred years.

                            India intervenes in the Pakistani civil war - Lose nuke aren't good for anyone. If Pakistan falls apart, India will have no choice but pick a side [for political cover] and try to sieze as many nuclear sites as possible.

                            Civil wars across central Africa - the expanding Sahara will push more and more Arabic speaking tribes south into black Africa. Darfur is only a prototype of what is to come.

                            Venezuela when the oil runs out - Chavez' largees is based entirely on extraction of oil wealth. If he continues the President-for-life route that he is on now he will eventually be faced with battalions of unemployed men that he's already handed out guns to. Could get ugly for Venezuel and its neighbors.
                            Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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                            • #15
                              For me Syria's involvement in Lebanon will bring unwanted attention, again!

                              Border disputes over the North Pole can get serious, don't see why... so damn cold.

                              China's demands for natural resorcses could become an issue, but only if their budget starts drying up!


                              "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
                              Ernest Hemingway.

                              "The more I learn about people, The more I love my dog".
                              Mark Twain.

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