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The Iranian Lion slowly shows its Claws

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  • The Iranian Lion slowly shows its Claws

    As you I saw the Kerbala processions

    Shiites are awaking, and Iran begin to interact with them.

    I saw the Mollahs, here, like a lion seiing a batlle between two Deer, and wait before to plunge on the weakenned winner. Iran improve/prepare its claws ready to give the fatal push.
    I'm pretty sure that there will be no democracy in Iraq, an Islamic republic yes.
    And US policy will be counterbalanced, with hope for a more stabilized zone disbanded.
    I think US either must resigh in its will to install a pro US regime or attack on Iran. you vote ?

    Der Wanderer
    19
    US resign and let's an Islamic Repubic install in Iraq
    10.53%
    2
    US Attack Iran to stop Molah's influence in IRAQ
    52.63%
    10
    Monica Levinski win the next election
    36.84%
    7
    Last edited by jlbetin; 24 Apr 03, 06:56.
    The Best weapon ever:a good Joke. The Best shield ever: Humour
    JLBETIN© Aka Der Wanderer TOAW Section Leader is a █ WHQ/SZO/XG/Gamesquad® product since 01/2003
    The Birth of European Army Tournament round Three is opened

  • #2
    I'm voting attack because it's the best fit of any of the available choice, but I don't expect it to be an overt show of force like in Iraq. With the majority of the IRanian population born since the revolution, and relatively secularized in their point of view the mullahs are allready sitting on a powder keg. I expect that we've already sent special forces across the border to further stir the pot and will simply stand back and watch the 2nd revolution topple the mullahs.
    "Lord... forgive me my actions, speech and thoughts. Because, Lord, I am seriously going to kick some unrighteous ass in Your Name, Amen."
    Princess of Wands by John Ringo (Jan 2006)

    http://www.baen.com/chapters/W200601...9232.htm?blurb

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    • #3
      It may be possible to influence Iran without the need for war although they've been asking for it ever since the Iranian hostage crisis. Had it not been for the Vietnam war and the effect its follout was still having on US public opinion in late 1970s, the Iranian Islamic republic would have been squashed like a bug.

      At any rate, Iraq cannot be allowed to establish a government heavy with extremist clerics. If the most popular extremist preachers (those that instigate violence against USA) have to be put in prison that won't be a big loss.

      The Iraqi people should be able to try out the middle ground of the political spectrum, not go from one scale of extrermism (secular but brutal dictatorship) to another (religious extremism). Transition to religious extremism would be too easy though, since the country has never experienced democracy and will have to build the new democratic parties from scratch and let them grow and mature. This takes time. Meanwhile, legions of extremist clerics are ready and sniffing the political vacuum, eager to fill it up.

      They Iraqis may need our help building democracy though, I'm not sure if people who set their own museums on fire (just for fun) are mature enough to manage the process of their transition to democracy.
      Last edited by MonsterZero; 24 Apr 03, 10:23.

      "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
      --Frederick II, King of Prussia

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      • #4
        It may be possible to influence Iran without the need for war although they've been asking for it ever since the Iranian hostage crisis. Had it not been for the Vietnam war and the effect its follout was still having on US public opinion in late 1970s, the Iranian Islamic republic would have been squashed like a bug.
        Wow ... not even close. It was the same morons that got us into the Vietnam war that gave us the Shah of Iran. The people of Iran quite rightly tossed him out. Unfortunately, the only people organized against the Shah were the Marxists and the religious fanatics. Guess who gets the foreign support when deed is finally done? Public support was overwhelming for some kind of intervention in response to the aggression against our embassy and the public was falsely posed as being opposed to it. What happened was that there was in fact a mission and it went badly. There was no public disapproval, only disappointment that it didn't work. In the end, cooler heads prevailed all round and we got our people out and our embassy back. Nobody seriously imagines we could have invaded Iran. This was long before the debilitating effect of the Iran-Iraq war and they had a largely vital military. Vietnam-syndromists need not apply.

        At any rate, Iraq cannot be allowed to establish a government heavy with extremist clerics. If the most popular extremist preachers (those that instigate violence against USA) have to be put in prison that won't be a big loss.
        We could go even further then that. If we could convince the state department to surrender its WMD snipe hunt, we could probably better spend our time prosecuting a lot of these folks for real terrorist activity.

        The real basic foundation of creating stability in Iraq is preserving the integrity of Iraqi borders and citizenship. How many of these Shi'i are actually Iranian citizens? The problem is the same with the Kurds. The Kurds want to identify themselves as Iraqi now? Which ones? Since they have been clamoring to carve up just about every country in the area to make a Kurdish state, this could include many Turks, Iranians and who knows what else.
        Get the US out of NATO, now!

        Comment


        • #5
          SparceMatrix, an early warning for you:
          Rigorous as you are, you may soon find yourself singular here ... and even worse, at same time, negative definite



          BTW, I voted for monica too
          Attn to ALL my opponents:

          If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

          Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

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          • #6
            SparceMatrix, an early warning for you:
            Rigorous as you are, you may soon find yourself singular here ... and even worse, at same time, negative definite.
            Huh? .
            Get the US out of NATO, now!

            Comment


            • #7
              LoL ... I believe soon you will understand what I meant
              (There will be these guys who live in a positive definite one dimensional linear space Powelled by Rums-Field who are eager to get ya by your points ---- and all these can be easily simulated by Bush-y tree techniques as I can see ... ;p)

              Just kidding ya...
              Attn to ALL my opponents:

              If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

              Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

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              • #8
                I guess this must be a misspelling...you surely meant 'the next erection' !?
                Resistance is futile!
                My little company

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Scipio
                  I guess this must be a misspelling...you surely meant 'the next erection' !?
                  oh yeah... you got me, Babe ...
                  Attn to ALL my opponents:

                  If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

                  Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Rumsfeld has gone on record to say there will not be a Shiite religious government a la Iran. I'm sure the Shias & the Badr Bde in Iran have something to say about that.

                    So the real troubles begin.
                    Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Rumsfeld has gone on record to say there will not be a Shiite religious government a la Iran. I'm sure the Shias & the Badr Bde in Iran have something to say about that.

                      So the real troubles begin.
                      It's more about the trouble that has been there all along. One of the things that Saddam Hussein's government did by its simple existence was provide a hedge against these radical Islamicists. Now that it is removed, it is a job the US as an occupier must take on itself. If it can be as easy as knocking over SH's regime, then things could be looking up. Perhaps we can do a better job.

                      It really is amazing how easy it was to push over Saddam Hussein. The next thing to worry about is the possibility of the same terrorism that Israel sees showing up in Iraq. If it establishes an organized presence as it has in Israel then we could see some real ugliness. But recently we are seeing considerably less terrorism in Israel and we haven't anything like a parallel of 9-11 and its precursors in the US either. It really is amazing how weak Saddam Hussein really was. Maybe they spent it all on the Iraq-Iran war. That would explain the application of mustard gas on the Kurds. It was all they had left to fight them with. Kuwait was a miscalculation of international interest in the area, I wouldn't call it resolve any more. Another way to look at the US invasion of Iraq is that it actually serves to protect Iraq from the Shi'i and Kurds in a way that SH was simply too feeble to do.

                      If Iran wants to make trouble for the US in Iraq at this point, it could be another horrible miscalculation. The Iraq-Iran war couldn't have been very good for it either and reformists in Iran are more powerful in Iran then the opposition to SH was in Iraq.
                      Get the US out of NATO, now!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SparceMatrix


                        It's more about the trouble that has been there all along. One of the things that Saddam Hussein's government did by its simple existence was provide a hedge against these radical Islamicists.

                        Another way to look at the US invasion of Iraq is that it actually serves to protect Iraq from the Shi'i and Kurds in a way that SH was simply too feeble to do.

                        If Iran wants to make trouble for the US in Iraq at this point, it could be another horrible miscalculation. The Iraq-Iran war couldn't have been very good for it either and reformists in Iran are more powerful in Iran then the opposition to SH was in Iraq.
                        Saddam too feeble to contain the Shias & the Kurds ?
                        C'mon! Even with the NFZs, there was minimal insurrection in the north and south of Iraq. Especially when you consider that the ruling clique at the time comprised no more than 25% of the population.

                        I would agree that for Iran to push too hard would be a gross miscalculation on their part. It may be difficult however, to contain the Mullahs. Already they seem to be going their own way. If you consider that the Shias represent up to 60% of the Iraqi population, their voices carry a lot of weight.

                        The Badr Bde in Iran cannot be discounted in this equation. We don't know how much control the ruling party in Iran has over them. Word is that the Iranian Mullahs have a firm grip on the Badr Bde, but when religion is a factor, people sometimes tend to go their own way.

                        The US has to walk the tightrope when it comes to the Shia in Iraq.
                        Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Saddam too feeble to contain the Shias & the Kurds ?
                          C'mon! Even with the NFZs, there was minimal insurrection in the north and south of Iraq. Especially when you consider that the ruling clique at the time comprised no more than 25% of the population.
                          There are many contradictions in that statement. No matter, you may not know that the NFZ was created and justified by the UN to protect those very same Kurdish and Shi'i "minorities" from SH. I hope you didn't suffer from the same misconception that I did, that the NFZ was to contain an adventerous SH. So now these same Kurds and Shi'i don't need any "protection" from SH, it is we who need protection from them? Something is not quite right.

                          I have never heard of the "Badr Bde", perhaps you can post a link to some information on them.
                          Get the US out of NATO, now!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by SparceMatrix


                            There are many contradictions in that statement. No matter, you may not know that the NFZ was created and justified by the UN to protect those very same Kurdish and Shi'i "minorities" from SH. I hope you didn't suffer from the same misconception that I did, that the NFZ was to contain an adventerous SH. So now these same Kurds and Shi'i don't need any "protection" from SH, it is we who need protection from them? Something is not quite right.

                            I have never heard of the "Badr Bde", perhaps you can post a link to some information on them.
                            The Badr brigade or Badr Corp is nothing more than a ragtag army of about 10,000 troops many of whom are children. They are based in Iran and made of up Iraqi exiles.

                            Here is a link to an interview with their leader:
                            http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middl...ance_2-25.html
                            "Speaking here in my capacity as a polished, sophisticated European as well, it seems to me the laugh here is on the polished, sophisticated Europeans. They think Americans are fat, vulgar, greedy, stupid, ambitious and ignorant and so on. And they've taken as their own Michael Moore, as their representative American, someone who actually embodies all of those qualities." - Christopher Hitchens

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                            • #15
                              Between Iran and the USA, there is the People’s Mujahedeen Organization, an Iranian opposition group supported and directed by Saddam’s regime. In the past this group launched border attacks on Iran from Iraq for 17 years, and helped Saddam against the Kurds and the Shiites. The EU and the USA have classified this organization as a terrorist group.
                              In Iraq this group is a little army, with tanks and artillery. And its fighters were in Iraq when the Coalition attacked it in March. As any other troops in Iraq they were bombed by the Americans, and lost equipment and soldiers. But after the collapse of Saddam’s regime, Mujahedeen and Americans secured a cease fire the 17 April. The Mujahedeen moved their force to Baqubah, an area closed to the Iranian frontier (North-East of Baghdad). And apparently nobody asked them to disarm.
                              If the Americans do nothing against them, the Iranians will not hesitate to interact in Iraq and use the Badr brigade.

                              La Palice.
                              Monsieur de La Palice est mort
                              Mort devant Pavie.
                              Un quart d'heure avant sa mort
                              Il était encore en vie...

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