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  • Has the shooting begun again?

    With all the issues in the world, has the shooitng begun in the new version of the Korean war?
    Kevin Kenneally
    Masters from a school of "hard knocks"
    Member of a Ph.D. Society (Post hole. Digger)

  • #2
    This one may turnm out to be much more than just saber rattling.I guess we'll find out soon enough.
    ALL LIVES SPLATTER!

    BLACK JEEPS MATTER!

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Kevin Kenneally View Post
      With all the issues in the world, has the shooitng begun in the new version of the Korean war?
      Wouldn't be a bit surprised. Most people don't realize that the Korean War never really ended. Not legally nor in reality. Just ask the citizens of South Korea. There have been countless "incidents" since the truce of 1953 that could have re-ignited the flames of war. In just one instance, in 1970 a North Korean assassination team attempted to kill the South Korean President, and they almost succeeded. If the North keeps pushing, one of these days the South will push back. Count on it.
      If there are no dogs in Heaven, then I want to go where they went when they died-Will Rogers

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      • #4
        I fear that the shooting may indeed start again. However, I don't think this one will look anything like the last war did. I do have some hope, Russia and China are far from backing N Korea on this one. If N Korea pulls the trigger, they will in essence be committing suicide. The problem is the damage they can do on the way down.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by CupASoup View Post
          I fear that the shooting may indeed start again. However, I don't think this one will look anything like the last war did. I do have some hope, Russia and China are far from backing N Korea on this one. If N Korea pulls the trigger, they will in essence be committing suicide. The problem is the damage they can do on the way down.
          In my opinion, the DPRK thinks that it can play the usual games because the PRC is going to back its play. The problem is that the PRC has moved on and realizes that its business relationships with the USA and the ROK actually generate real money. Inversely, the DPRK is only a client state that does not have the money to pay for services rendered. Furthermore, to Russia the DPRK means virtually nothing. If things get hot, I have a feeling that Mr. Kim will be in for a rude awakening.
          Give me a fast ship and the wind at my back for I intend to sail in harms way! (John Paul Jones)

          Initiated Chief Petty Officer
          Hard core! Old School! Deal with it!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by bass_man86 View Post
            In my opinion, the DPRK thinks that it can play the usual games because the PRC is going to back its play. The problem is that the PRC has moved on and realizes that its business relationships with the USA and the ROK actually generate real money. Inversely, the DPRK is only a client state that does not have the money to pay for services rendered. Furthermore, to Russia the DPRK means virtually nothing. If things get hot, I have a feeling that Mr. Kim will be in for a rude awakening.
            I think these are reasons to discount that outright war will actually happen. North Korea would simply be too isolated and incapable of waging a sufficient campaign against a better-armed and capable South Korean force.
            "To be defeated and not submit, is victory; to be victorious and rest on one's laurels, is defeat."
            --Marshal Jzef Piłsudski

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Pilsudski View Post
              I think these are reasons to discount that outright war will actually happen. North Korea would simply be too isolated and incapable of waging a sufficient campaign against a better-armed and capable South Korean force.
              You make perfect sense and I agree with you, sir. However I cannot underestimate the paranoia and insanity of the DPRK leadership. Who knows what little Kim is capable of.

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              • #8
                One opinion, is that Kim Jong-Il is trying to prepare and solidify his 27 year old son for his succession for leadership. Perhaps KJ-Ill is doing to to stir North Korean nationalism, and make internal moves in the competition for succession.

                Of course, this is speculation, I think.

                Here's the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/wo...ef=global-home

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                • #9
                  Sherlock, the Blue House raid wan in January 1968, not 1970. Here's a link: http://rokdrop.com/2008/12/30/dmz-fl...ue-house-raid/

                  Krane, that's about as good an analysis as anyone's going to get on this, and makes perfect sense. Thanks for posting the link. While the generals hold the real power in North Korea, they do so only in the shadow of the Kim dynasty. The old man, Il-sung, took care to integrate Jong-il into both the official family guerrilla fighting legend (richly embroidered over a real career as an anti-Japanese fighter) and the military hierarchy (with an official uniform and title). I recall a painting of a ruddy cheeked baby Jong-il, in the arms of his mother, pointing to Japanese soldiers who the KPA uniformed 'guerrillas' happily gunned down. The message being, see, the Dear Leader also fought the Japanese imperialists. I had taken the latest kerfluffle to either be Jong-il laying the ground for Kimmy IIIrd, or Kimmy IIIrd flexing his muscle to build an image up with the old generals. If that is the case, then war is highly unlikely. Unless, of course, things go 'aft agleigh' as often happens with those best laid plans of mice and men.

                  If we did a real cost analysis of what a long played out Korean crisis will cost us, it might be cheaper to simply strike now (conventionally) and let the ROKs worry about the clean-up. But, then there is that pesky U.N. command thingy.
                  dit: Lirelou

                  Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

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                  • #10
                    No doubt that the North stands no chance what so ever by itself. I agree that PRC or Russian intervention is doubtful in the event of war. I believe that Uncle Kim will attempt to control the NKPA to much and micromanage, and he's to much of a crazy screw up to succeed.But if he kids backed into a corner that craziness could cause alot of damage.
                    "The first time those bastards encounter US Marines, I want it to be the most traumatic experience of their miserable lives."
                    -Gen. James Mattis, USMC

                    Psalms 144.1

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                    • #11
                      Were war to erupt, how long would the NKPA hold up fighting the South?

                      Would the NKPA attack Japanese targets in a effort to intimidate Japan as well?

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                      • #12
                        Keep in mind too the effect of advancing into South Korean territory is going to have upon the common NKPA soldier. Imagine the utter shock and disbelief of seeing all of the common 21st century luxuries in the bombed-out houses of the cities they pass through, not to mention, all of the unrationed and plentiful foods commonly enjoyed by the people of South Korea that are unheard of, unobtainable or denied to them in the North.

                        I'm sure the "Human Chia Pet" Kim Jong Ill has thought about the effect this would have upon his troops and I don't think he's likely to start a war that would spell the end his own life and all of the warped and twisted dreams of his forebearers.
                        "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                          Were war to erupt, how long would the NKPA hold up fighting the South?

                          Would the NKPA attack Japanese targets in a effort to intimidate Japan as well?
                          The North has alot of old, Soviet vintage artillery buried in underground gun galleries in the mountains along the 38th Parallel, with just their muzzles sticking out. They could quickly bring Seoul under ruinous and heavy indirect artillery fire. They do have some very good special forces units and it has been proven that there are a number of "sleeper cells" residing throughout the South, waiting for the balloon to go up. Aside from that, the North Koreans have very little up to date kit to prosecute a modern war with. Their aircraft and armor are very outdated and nowhere near as effective as their South Korean counterparts. A North Korean surprise attack could very well put their spearheads deep into South Korea, but the overwhelming pounding they would take from South Korean and US land, sea and airpower would quickly send them packing.

                          I wouldn't be surprised if such a war didn't include the NKPA attacking Japan with missiles and also with sleeper agents making terrorist attacks, or attacks against their infrastructure. Japan was a major supporter of the US war efforts in the first Korean War and Kim knows full well that.
                          "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                          • #14
                            The North has alot of old, Soviet vintage artillery buried in underground gun galleries in the mountains along the 38th Parallel, with just their muzzles sticking out. They could quickly bring Seoul under ruinous and heavy indirect artillery fire.
                            That's not my information, which puts the cannon artillery out of range of most of Seoul. The Rocket artillery is a different matter, but then that has to move between firing points..

                            Schwarmburg, your question is the great unanswerable. First, it is highly unlikely that any NK forces save a very few Special Ops units are going to make it into the South. Nor is there any real appreciation for what, if any, logistical system exists for sustaining a thrust South. What is known is that LOCs within North Korea are old and would not withstand heavy usage. But the unknown is just how hard the Norks will fight a defensive war, thereby slowing down penetration of the north. There are divisions within the KPA ranks, caused by the preferential treatment given certain commands and units. But whether or not that will translate into cracks within Nork resolve to fight is unknown. Korea is the country that has given the world 'Juche' (so-called slef-reliance), the only 'Communist' dynasty, and the Moonies, not to mention a not unimportant percentage of the South Korean electorate who willingly close their eyes to North Korea, and insist that their government and/or the United States, is the real obstacle to peace and reunification in Korea. SO the same soldier that loaths his position within the hierarchy and resents the preferential treatment given members of the Bodyguard Command and 'Storm Corps' (special ops) may still put up stiff resistance, or not.

                            My bet is - not, but there are no guarantees.
                            dit: Lirelou

                            Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

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                            • #15
                              Let N and S Koreans fight. They've probably been wanting to fight for a long time.

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