Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Korean Peninsula crisis

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Korean Peninsula crisis

    It is rather disconcerting that the IAEA and the world community are "walking on eggshells" in regards to North Korea's (DPRK) nuclear aspirations. Reliable intelligence indicates that the DPRK has two nuclear devices, posible as many as 5 or 6, lacking only a delivery system. While it is certain that we do not want to back Kim Jong-il into a corner, making nuclear (or other WMD) use more likely, neither can we soft pedal on the issue. To Kim, this indicates weakness, emboldening Kim, and making him more adventerous, more belligerent. Both Kim and his father (Kim il-Sung), knew only too well that they were/are no match for the military forces of the US or its regional neighbors. In the past, the DPRK's answer was a very large (for the size of the DPRK) armed forces, heavy with armor, artillery and special purpose forces. While the quality and training of the DPRK's forces is subject to debate, they outweigh the South Korean (ROK) armed forces in every category. The situation on the Korean Peninsula somewhat resembles Central Europe during the Cold War. The DPRK has the numerical advantage in tanks, IFVs artillery, special purpose forces, missilery and as noted above, a well developed WMD program. It would not likely take a great degree of effort or training to smuggle a small nuclear device into the ROK in the midst of battle, set the detonator, and disappear into the chaos of battle. The devastation of a nuclear blast - in Seoul, Inchon, or near a US air base would be a coup in itself, never mind the shock of the DPRK being able to act with such impunity.

    We have a chance right now, to take a firm (but not confrontational) stance againt the DPRK, inform them that it is unacceptable for them to be in possession of any nuclear device, or to continue research and production. For what its worth, we may tie humanitarian aid to abandonment of nuclear research, though this has been ineffectual in the past. Kim seems far more interested in his armed forces and his WMD than in his people. One would like to think that there is a point where Kim must at last reconcile himself to doing what is necessary to resume aid - dismantlement of current nuclear devices and the Yongbyon reactor, acceptance of IAEA inspection, cessation of sending special purpose forces into the ROK and, possibly, resuming talks for for a permanent peace treaty to replace the cease-fire of 1953. Kim is very much a wayward child, and must be treated as such. Like a child throwing a tantrum, he stops his behavior when he sees that it will avail him nothing.

    I hope I did not sidetrack too much. I welcome comments.
    Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
    (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

  • #2
    I think that the USA has already suffered the loss of 58K men
    on that stinking issue. I dont see EITHER Korea being worth even one more.

    In 1975 NKorea brutally murdered two US servicemen that
    were trimming a tree.

    I say shoot the mad dog, dont play with him.

    If the country glows blue at night, it wont bother me at all.

    Comment


    • #3
      North Korea

      The North Koreans do pose a viable threat to our nation and its allies in that they do have the WMD's. I feel that we are sending the North Koreans, and the rest of the world a valuable message in what we are doing in Iraq. We are saying that if you don't follow the rules, we are the arm that will punish you. The UN has been slacking for so long, nations have felt that they could get away with it. The North Koreans have to know that if it comes to a war, we will win. We have better means of warfare than they do as years of communist rule have left them relatively weak. Also we would have won back in the '50s had it not been for the aid of the Chineese. While I could be wrong, I don't believe China would back Il. They know we don't pose a serious threat to them, and were not included in the "Axis of Evil." I doubt they would throw support our way, but they really should not have too much political interest in the North Koreans anymore. It may be a little bit of a bufferzone between them and us, but we have so many allies that border China now anyway it moots that point. Il just needs to know that if he does not back down, he may end up in a spider hole like Sadaam.

      Comment


      • #4
        Korea comments

        Irreverent declared:

        I think that the USA has already suffered the loss of 58K men on that stinking issue. I dont see EITHER Korea being worth even one more.

        Just as an aside , it was in Vietnam that we lost 58,000. In Korea our losses were approximately 54,000.

        But back to the main issues:

        In 1975 NKorea brutally murdered two US servicemen that were trimming a tree.

        I say shoot the mad dog, dont play with him.

        If the country glows blue at night, it wont bother me at all.

        At the risk of coming across as patently insulting, your comments are so reactionary and simplistic as to descend to the level of the juvenile, if not the infantile. Your reasoning that because they have wronged us, we may do anything in response is the sort of thought process that started WWI and helped to start WWII. If that is how you feel, that is your right. It would, though, elevate public perception of you to not shout it out in a public forum.
        Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
        (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Korea comments

          Originally posted by hogdriver
          At the risk of coming across as patently insulting, your comments are so reactionary and simplistic as to descend to the level of the juvenile, if not the infantile. Your reasoning that because they have wronged us, we may do anything in response is the sort of thought process that started WWI and helped to start WWII. If that is how you feel, that is your right. It would, though, elevate public perception of you to not shout it out in a public forum.
          I am not worried about public perception of me =)
          I am not running for office.

          It is people like YOU who devalue human life. By saying,
          one or two isnt enough to do anything about.

          I disagree. Even one citizen, is enough.
          I dont agree that it takes thousands of deaths to justify a reaction. But what can we expect from somone who thinks
          the USA overreacted to Pearl Harbor?

          I also dont think that occupation of a country, is worth the cost in lives. However if you dont put walking targets on the ground,
          it is hard to retaliate.

          I am an old man, I come from an earlier age. Possibly a 'simpler'
          time, certainly a better one.

          Comment


          • #6
            The Wrong Message At The Wrong Time

            What to do about the PDRK is certainly a problem, not least because the 'Dear Leader' is operating off a mind-set that is difficult to equate with sanity.

            The problem, in my view, is that the USA intervened in Iraq where there were no WMD, and appears to be walking softly in Korea's case, where there at least appears to be nuclear arms. The lesson I would learn, if I were a third world tyrant, would be that having WMD is a good thing, which is not the lesson I think the USA wants to teach.

            Interestingly enough, if we speculate on what might happen if the baloon went up on the Korean Peninsula [and there is at least one good wargame on the subject], I would argue that the ROK could make a good fight of it all by themselves. They may be outnumbered, but if we have learned anything from the past 15 years of military history, it is that numbers don't convey much strength at all.

            The ROK is immeasurably superior at sea and in the air, and has more modern ground forces with better logistics. The question which cannot be answered in absence of the 'audit of war', is how combat-effective their troops are, but they are certainly more combat-effective than the miserable mob which had to face the shock of the initial attack at the beginning of the Korean War.

            I too share the opinion that this is a crisis point that will not remain stable indefinitely. It appears clear that China would be entirely happy with a solution that unified the peninsula [especially with the mass of North Korean refugees which have poured over their border] and led to the withdrawal of the 8th Army. There is an opportunity for some 'creative distruction' here which might solve the problem permanently, though admittedly, there also will be risks with this.

            Comment


            • #7
              The NK military may be larger than Seoul's, but their level of training, preparedness and equipment maintenance has gone down since the end of communist Russia. The quality level of new concripts into NK's army has gone down due to the constant famine, lack of proper medical care and overall suffering of the North Korean people in Kim Jongil's hands. He has been mismanaging the whole country for far too long.

              Last year China sent a delegation of high military officials to Pyeongyang to deliver a message; while that message is still unknown many believe that China told Krazy Kim that the Chinese Army would not back them up in case of a new war in Korea, and that China would break all relations with NK if they used nuclear weapons.

              In the event of Pyeongyang using nuclear weapons in Seoul, all surrounding countries would suffer, China, Japan, Russia and also North Korea itself. Seoul has a broad industrial base that would be beneficial to the NK government if they succeeded in unifying the peninsula under their terms, as unlikely as it may seem; so it would be simply stupid to just drop the bomb on Seoul.

              In case of war, NK would shell Seoul with the thousands of artillery pieces it has in the mountains north of the DMZ. Seoul is within that artillery range and inflicting a few thousand deaths in Seoul would be beneficial to the communist bastards.

              In case they attack, the United States 8th Army would have to pull back from the DMZ to South of Seoul, maybe near Suwon, rehroup and then react to the NK's advance. That ties up with the recently announced future moving of US troops from theis positions on the DMZ to other places South of Seoul. Even the 8th Army HQs will be moved further south, from Yongsan garrison in Seoul to somewhere near Osan or Pyeongtaek. That will leave the initial defense of the DMZ to the ROK Army.

              War planners have done extensive war games that show that in the event of a NK invasion, the red army would gain the initial advantage and could make it as far south as Seoul, but would be stalled at the Han river. The Han river is wide enough that if Seoul's main bridges are blown the NK army will slow down to a halt. After the initial attack then ROK and US forces would gain momentum and reppel the bastard army of North Korea.

              One fact that could potentially slow down the NK advance would be the culture shock that NK soldiers would have once they start walking on South Korea's streets. Like the Russian soldiers that invaded Estonia, Lithuani and Latvia in the 20s (I may be incorrect as of the correct decade), NK soldiers may realize they had benn lied to by the NK government and that South Korea is not starving like them, that South Koreans aren't contantly monitored like them and that South Koreans have basic freedoms that they would never dream of. Many soldiers would refuse to fight and many would desert, like the Russians did in the baltic states. Basically their own lies would be their undoing.

              While I hope that thsi never happens, we must be prepared for the worst at all times. The US/ROK alliance with its "Fight tonight" mentality is ready to confront the communist threat anytime. Hopefully the North Koreans government will just implode and the unification of the peninsula may occur in a more civilized way.

              NK's nuclear threat, however, is not seen as a real threat. His nuclear bombs are more of a means of leverage than a military threat. What Kim wants is rice for his Army and energy to run his equipment. If we give him enough of that now he will shut up for a while longer while his people suffers.

              Comment


              • #8
                N Korean threat

                San Musa noted:

                NK's nuclear threat, however, is not seen as a real threat. His nuclear bombs are more of a means of leverage than a military threat. What Kim wants is rice for his Army and energy to run his equipment. If we give him enough of that now he will shut up for a while longer while his people suffers.

                This may be rather an oversimplification. Yes, it is true the Kim Jong-il will use anything, even the Korean people, as pawns in his games of confrontational diplomacy and nuclear brinkmanship.

                As regards his nuclear warheads, he does want to acquire a delivery vehicle and, whether from abroad or domestically, he will do so, more likely sooner than later. He knows that a nuclear option, however small, however short the range, must make the regional powers sit up and take notice. With range to strike South Korea, Russia, China, Japan, Taiwan, possibly further afield, each nation must directly address this threat to their security. Each of these nations may well feel the need to be more conciliatory towards the DPRK, granting Kim's known instability, his whims, and his frequently confrontational acts and deeds. Only the United States will remain outside the CEP of the DPRK's influence. For that reason, the United States tends frequently to be the target of Kim's venom. We have given him cause to doubt our commitment to the ROK, Japan and Taiwan, thereby reducing his leverage. So despotic, so inhumane, so irrational is he that he plays games with the lives of his people. While he builds WMD, missiles, tanks, small arms and other weapons of war, his people starve, live in sub-standard dwelling with no electricity and running water and with abysmal health care. They labor in slave-like conditions with little or no modern farm machinery. Statistics of infant mortaility, life expectancy, literary and other barometers must be estimated, as the DPRK keeps no such statistics.

                Several times last year alone, the Kim regime re-affirmed their intent to reunite Korea, further stating that they felt violence was the only viable means of doing so. As well, many references were made to turning the ROK into a "sea of fire". Whether this refers to nuclear usage is uncertain, though it is believed unlikely. The threat is troubling nonetheless. More veiled references have been directed to Japan

                Visits to the DPRK by Russian and Chinese delegations, and the visit of a DPRK delegation to Japan have given rise to many questions, including suppositions that Russia and China have removed pledges of support to the DPRK. It is widely regarded that the primary topic of the Japanese has been regarding DPRK missile tests that have flown over Japan on their way to splashdown in the South Pacific.

                The bottom line is that Kim Jong-il and the DPRK are as enigmatic as under Kim's father. Kim is age 62 this year, not particularly old, but old enough to fuel talks of his successor. He is believed to have a least one child, a son, and is believed to be in his second marriage. His changes of mood are widely reported, indeed, many have described him as paranoid. His has been implicated in at least two acts of terror, the bombing of a Rangoon motel, killing 17 ROK politicians, and the bombing of a Korean Air Lines flight, killing 115.

                While little definite can be predicted about Kim or the DPRK, it is all but certain that Kim will persist with the deportment he is known for: cagy and indeterminate when challeged, gruff and adversarial when he sense weakness.

                The DPRK's nuclear threat could not be more real. Real enough, certainly, to cause alarm bells in Seoul and Tokyo, the two most likely targets of a a DPRK warhead. Anybody who ignores or underestimates the capabilities of Kim, does so at their peril.
                Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
                (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

                Comment


                • #9
                  I recently arrived here in sunny (well,frosty) Korea. One of my soldiers was telling me of a computer used at staff level for war-gaming different scenarios. It had a setting for using nukes,which was disabled after a ROK general officer used said option in the game.....on Seoul after the North over ran it.

                  Nice odds,eh?
                  Delegate, MN GOP.

                  PATRIA SI, COMUNISMO NO

                  http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/p...?id=1156276727

                  Comment

                  Latest Topics

                  Collapse

                  Working...
                  X