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  • The Dragon Growls

    What if China launches a war over Taiwan right now when all U.S. forces are committed chasing islamiacs around the globe? We'll be screwed.

    http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapc...umn/index.html

    "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
    --Frederick II, King of Prussia

  • #2
    If this occurs, what will the US reaction be? Fight or negotiate? I predict negotiate, Taiwan isn't really enough to start WW3 over.
    "There is no great genius without some touch of madness."

    Seneca (5 BC - 65 AD)

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    • #3
      I think ACOW has a Korea 99 scenario that covers it... basically US gets bogged down in Kosovo and Middle East, then China and North Korea decide to attack Taiwan and S. Korea.

      Anyways, it's doubtful China would be able to invade Taiwan... but they could probably blockade it fairly effectively - not to mention lob a lot of missiles at it.
      "Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government’s purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding."

      – Associate Justice Louis D. Brandeis, Olmstead vs. United States.

      Comment


      • #4
        ohho.. finally US news as well...

        sigh, let us pray for peace ....
        Attn to ALL my opponents:

        If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

        Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

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        • #5
          Hope for peaceful negotioations, the U.S. Army is spread a little thin right now.

          Comment


          • #6
            I don't believe negotiations without a commitment to the use of force is acceptable. The invasion of Tiawan should be interpreted as a deliberate demonstration by China to prove America's weakness, and undermine our foriegn interest in Asia. The current geopolitical situation demands a firm response, even if it risk a major war.

            The appropriate course of action in the event of war would be for the US to covertly (or as secretly as possible) deploy as many of our SSBN's as a possible in the event of a nuclear confrontation. The second, more visible step would be to dispatch two to three CVBGs to the region, while consulting regional allies. I don't believe combat troops are appropriate. There is no way we could dispatch them in sufficient number under current conditions for them to be effective at the outset of the invasion.

            By the time, the CVBGs are in place, we'll have a clear ideal of the best course of action to take. If the use of this force is authorized, the vessels can begin launching combat operations, with the likely objective of interdicting Chinese supply lines. PLAAF and PLAN will respond, but their effective is in serious doubt. We'll have AWACS. They won't. This will allow us to intercept their forces more effectively. SSMs might be a problem, but again, we can strike from a farther distance.

            However, I don't believe force will be necessary. China would incur enormous casualties upon invading Tiawan. While they were the first to draw and develop lessons from Desert Storm, incorporation of these have been slow. The Chinese are still a "point defense force." They will have a very difficult time supporting the invasion force. Tiawan is expected to maintain air superiority (not supremacy) for the most part. They'll shred the invasion force, which will be lightly defended and using slow merchant ships. Once on shore, the battle could develop in China's favor. Yet, again, there is serious doubt they could maintain the initiative, particularly, if Beijing is worried about US and/or international involvement. Of the 200,000 Airborne and Marine troops of the Chinese Rapid Reaction Army, half might become casualties within the first few days of the conflict.

            Should the international community elect to stay out, they will almost certainly compromise the Asian agenda both America and Europe claim to be so important. China will appear clearly dominant, even if provoked, undermining alliances. People will seek security through alliances with the stronger country in region. It is imperative the US, and if they are smart, Europe do everything they can to make sure everyone understand the west is dominant.

            On the other hand, the US needs to make it clear to Tiawan that it must work harder not to aggravate Beijing. I do believe Tiawan is pushing the Chinese, and I really can't blame them for their tough talk. Should Tiawan declare independence or in some other way clearly provoke the Chinese through somekind of effort to embarass Beijing, all bets should be off.

            Hopefully, Beijing is just trying to make sure Tiawan (and everyone else) understand they won't tolerate independence. The US should reaffirm our commitment to not supporting such efforts. I don't think Beijing wants war, but they don't want to be embarassed either. I believe it is in our best interest to make clear we do intend to embarass or provoke China in any way.
            "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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            • #7
              If China invades, expect to see Japan have a few votes and then send forces if the Tawainese will allow them.
              "Have you forgotten the face of your father?"

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Tim McBride
                If China invades, expect to see Japan have a few votes and then send forces if the Tawainese will allow them.
                Yep. I don't believe ground troops should be committed unless it's clear they actually stand a chance of making a difference. The force China will send to Tiawan might be poorly equipped, but I'm confident they will be able to overwhelm strong forces, and give everyone else more hell than you can shake a stick at. PLAN has spent the past 12 years learning how to fight effectively in a war against a 3rd to 4th Generation Army.

                In my earlier post, I hope I didn't make it sound like the Chinese are a push over. I'm very scared of a war with China. The best thing we can do is try to prevent a confrontation through negotiations. Bush doesn't sound like he's taking Beijing seriously enough. I know part of his confidence is probably the lack of activity intelligence wise. However, China's Rapid Reaction Army can move very fast.
                "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'm not so sure Japan would intervene. Any deployment overseas comes with it a huge amount of debate and wrangling.

                  More importantly, it'd be like Germany getting directly involved in a Middle Eastern conflict involving Israel.

                  There is still enormous guilt in both countries over the atrocities commited during WW2. Japanese behaviour in China was particularly brutal and vicious.

                  On top of that Japan does not recognize Taiwan as an independent entitity, as per the 1972 Shanghai communique.
                  "Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government’s purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding."

                  – Associate Justice Louis D. Brandeis, Olmstead vs. United States.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MikeJ
                    I'm not so sure Japan would intervene. Any deployment overseas comes with it a huge amount of debate and wrangling.

                    More importantly, it'd be like Germany getting directly involved in a Middle Eastern conflict involving Israel.

                    There is still enormous guilt in both countries over the atrocities commited during WW2. Japanese behaviour in China was particularly brutal and vicious.

                    On top of that Japan does not recognize Taiwan as an independent entitity, as per the 1972 Shanghai communique.
                    You're right.
                    There is no way Japan would send troops to help Taiwan.

                    Korea, though, is another story.
                    Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by tigersqn
                      You're right.
                      There is no way Japan would send troops to help Taiwan.

                      Korea, though, is another story.
                      I have to disagree. While, it would be a complicated move, Japan did make it clear that Tiawan was included in the revised Guidelines for Defense Corporation. If the US intervenes militarily, there is a good chance Japan would be a member of any multinational force.
                      "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Well, all these discussion seem interesting ... I do not think Japan is in a position to send any troops right now. Japan still lives in a very hostile enviornment in Asia due to its behavior during WWII.

                        However, the more important thing is the yesterday there is a huge turn point (in my point of view): Taiwan's legislators passed their "referendum law" which banned arbitary votes on independence, change of nation's name, territory, and all related constitutional issues. This will pretty much stablize the situation and cool down the crisis for a few years ---- if nothing bad happens again, taht is.

                        A war would be horrible, no matter whether the US intervenes or not (if it does, it will just be more horrible.).
                        Attn to ALL my opponents:

                        If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

                        Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ER_Chaser
                          Well, all these discussion seem interesting ... I do not think Japan is in a position to send any troops right now. Japan still lives in a very hostile enviornment in Asia due to its behavior during WWII.

                          However, the more important thing is the yesterday there is a huge turn point (in my point of view): Taiwan's legislators passed their "referendum law" which banned arbitary votes on independence, change of nation's name, territory, and all related constitutional issues. This will pretty much stablize the situation and cool down the crisis for a few years ---- if nothing bad happens again, taht is.

                          A war would be horrible, no matter whether the US intervenes or not (if it does, it will just be more horrible.).
                          Hey, if you originally hailed from China, then what do you think Tawian should do? Declare her independence from China or having America recognize her existence?

                          I'm just curious...

                          Naturally, as a nationalistic American, I support Tawain's independence if it meant a slap in China's face...hopefully that will send a strong message to China that says, "Don't mess around with me." Anyway, I see China as a real threat to be dealt harshly with.

                          Dan
                          Major James Holden, Georgia Badgers Militia of Rainbow Regiment, American Civil War

                          "Aim small, miss small."

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cheetah772
                            Hey, if you originally hailed from China, then what do you think Tawian should do? Declare her independence from China or having America recognize her existence?

                            I'm just curious...

                            Naturally, as a nationalistic American, I support Tawain's independence if it meant a slap in China's face...hopefully that will send a strong message to China that says, "Don't mess around with me." Anyway, I see China as a real threat to be dealt harshly with.

                            Dan
                            Frankly, I do not understand American (as more general, west's) hatred toward China at all. For years, China has been abandoning the ideology difference. It actually merely keeps the name of "communism", nothing is a single bit like "communism" in China now. Yet, our western "friends" still cannot forgive the past and keep regarding China as an enemy. What can I say?

                            Human rights and democracy is a problem for current CCP govt.. Corruption is another ---- which is much more serious in Chinese people's mind. Yet, the west usually do not blame much on China's corruption for some unknown reason and pick everything on human rights things. Well, if this is the way that west believes it can win Chinese people's heart, I am afraid you guys are wrong. Of course, you do not have to win Chinese people at all. That is another story though.

                            As for Taiwan, personally I still hope we will be together in the future. Yet, I am not very much against its independence either. Because even if it become an independent country, sooner or later, if China becomes a nice democratic country, there is always chance that it will join us again. So it is not as a big deal to me. However, the current situation does not allow an immediate independence of TW because of many serious things ---- among which the most important one is the consensus of dominating majority of Chinese people (mainland)'s feelings. It is still too strongly against TW's independence. At this point, TI means war is not joking. I definitely do NOT want to see a civil war of China. Thus I do not support TI for that reason. I guess this is exactly the same reason why the US is not supporting TI either.

                            BTW, at this time, even if the US uses nukes on China, if taiwan claims independence, China is still going to strike. Perhaps, it is really hard for you westerners to understand this kind of eastern Asian mentality ( well, I sometimes discuss this with soem Chinese Americans, they cannot understand either. But for all Chinese (mainland), there is not even a question on this issue.). So there is not much effect as "do not mess around with me" --- but rather merely increase hatred and misunderstanding between the two nations. Well, perhaps that is exactly what some people wanted.
                            Attn to ALL my opponents:

                            If you sent me your turn and after 24 hours, you still did not get anything from me, please be sure to post in the forum to ask for what is going on.

                            Remember, I ALWAYS reply within 24 hours, even if I do NOT have time to play my turn, in which case I will at least send you email to tell you that I will have to play it later, but I DO receive your turn.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ER_Chaser
                              Frankly, I do not understand American (as more general, west's) hatred toward China at all. For years, China has been abandoning the ideology difference. It actually merely keeps the name of "communism", nothing is a single bit like "communism" in China now. Yet, our western "friends" still cannot forgive the past and keep regarding China as an enemy. What can I say?
                              China makes a good enemy, I guess. I agree, communism is pretty much dead now over there. I call their new system 'authoritarian capitalism'. What do you think?

                              Human rights and democracy is a problem for current CCP govt.. Corruption is another ---- which is much more serious in Chinese people's mind. Yet, the west usually do not blame much on China's corruption for some unknown reason and pick everything on human rights things. Well, if this is the way that west believes it can win Chinese people's heart, I am afraid you guys are wrong. Of course, you do not have to win Chinese people at all. That is another story though.
                              We also have much corruption in the US, so we really can't point our finger at them on this issue. However we don't have political prisoners, so it's much more to America's advantage to focus on this.

                              As for Taiwan, personally I still hope we will be together in the future. Yet, I am not very much against its independence either. Because even if it become an independent country, sooner or later, if China becomes a nice democratic country, there is always chance that it will join us again. So it is not as a big deal to me. However, the current situation does not allow an immediate independence of TW because of many serious things ---- among which the most important one is the consensus of dominating majority of Chinese people (mainland)'s feelings. It is still too strongly against TW's independence. At this point, TI means war is not joking. I definitely do NOT want to see a civil war of China. Thus I do not support TI for that reason. I guess this is exactly the same reason why the US is not supporting TI either.
                              Basically I agree. The status quo is the best answer for now. Several months ago I meet some people from Taiwan and they're very much for independence. This concerns me if this is the general view over there. These hotheads could start WW3.
                              "There is no great genius without some touch of madness."

                              Seneca (5 BC - 65 AD)

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