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  • Do they or don't they ???

    According to US sources, the North Korean delegates at the multilateral talks in Beijing admitted that they were in possession of nuclear weapons.

    Given North Korea's track record in honesty, I have my doubts as to whether this is true. I know the US intelligence community sees it as fact, but they have been known to somewhat bend the truth for their own purposes. (If anybody has questions about that, they can look up the US intelligence estimates for Soviet nuclear strength in the 50s)

    How will this affect the US position in the North Korean talks? For that matter, how will it affect the positions of the other nations involved ?
    Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

  • #2
    This is becoming a major problem. North Korea is underestimating the United States. The media seems convinced the US is not prepared to invade North Korea for several reasons. However, in reality, the hawks are already zeroing on Kim. Rumsfield circulated a memo last week expressing his view that the US should focus more on regime change. This was coupled with an all out attack on the State Department. Powell's taking heat from Republicans for Iraq. One aid to the Secretary of State said, "Powell is the only thing standing in the way of reckless foriegn policy." I have no reason to believe the aid was exaggrating.

    The US is likely to continue diplomacy. There still is not alot of support for war. And I'm not to sure China and South Korea are prepared to accept those risks just yet. If North Korea test a nuclear weapon, like they seem to be suggesting they can do, it could change things dramatically.

    The right move now is for the US to take a back seat and not give in. North Korea doesn't have the capability to successfully attack the US, nor do I believe it's their plan. China, Japan, and South Korea are the countries most threatened by this development. The US is right to have them involved.

    Kim's antics, which at first was somewhat comical, is creating the kind of tension that could start shooting. A nuclear-armed North Korea threatens Asia in general. It will also complicate our Asian First Doctrine.

    Diplomacy is still the best option right now. However, North Korea needs to realize the US is prepared to go war even if it means the release of nuclear weapons. However, the final decision should be left to those immediately threatened. If South Korea, Japan, and China want to continue negotiations, we should. Yet, I must admit, things don't look too positive right now.
    "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Deltapooh
      This is becoming a major problem. North Korea is underestimating the United States. The media seems convinced the US is not prepared to invade North Korea for several reasons. However, in reality, the hawks are already zeroing on Kim. Rumsfield circulated a memo last week expressing his view that the US should focus more on regime change. This was coupled with an all out attack on the State Department. Powell's taking heat from Republicans for Iraq. One aid to the Secretary of State said, "Powell is the only thing standing in the way of reckless foriegn policy." I have no reason to believe the aid was exaggrating.

      The US is likely to continue diplomacy. There still is not alot of support for war. And I'm not to sure China and South Korea are prepared to accept those risks just yet. If North Korea test a nuclear weapon, like they seem to be suggesting they can do, it could change things dramatically.

      The right move now is for the US to take a back seat and not give in. North Korea doesn't have the capability to successfully attack the US, nor do I believe it's their plan. China, Japan, and South Korea are the countries most threatened by this development. The US is right to have them involved.

      Kim's antics, which at first was somewhat comical, is creating the kind of tension that could start shooting. A nuclear-armed North Korea threatens Asia in general. It will also complicate our Asian First Doctrine.

      Diplomacy is still the best option right now. However, North Korea needs to realize the US is prepared to go war even if it means the release of nuclear weapons. However, the final decision should be left to those immediately threatened. If South Korea, Japan, and China want to continue negotiations, we should. Yet, I must admit, things don't look too positive right now.
      And, Deltapooh, there is a chance, however small, that China will attempt to make its own regime change in North Korea.

      There is no way China is going to allow a nuclear-armed North Korea, it's just not in China's best interest right now.

      China could do that in order to prevent further US influence should US attempt the same thing.

      The speculation and guessimates are driving everybody crazy, and we don't know enough about North Korea as to find some concrete information on what Kim is doing to do in the next few months.

      If we fail to ascertain what Kim is planning to do, then the nuclear brinkmanship has just gotten more heated.

      In any case, now that Iraqi Wara is over, and with this kind of success for USA, Kim has to know that he's finished one way or another. I doubt the world, despite its harsh crticism of America, is going to accept another new member of the nuclear club.

      Dan
      Major James Holden, Georgia Badgers Militia of Rainbow Regiment, American Civil War

      "Aim small, miss small."

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm not certain Kim is finished just yet. Rumsfield has the political skill of deranged monkey. There is not much support for an invasion of North Korea. Bush needs to worry about getting re-elected. His tax cut proposal is meeting alot of opposition, even from within his own party. I'm certain the senior Republican leadership have stressed to Bush the need to focus on the domestic front. Even the talk of war with North Korea is politically hazardous right now.

        Rumsfield is likely calling for "hypothecial plans" to be instituted. We don't really have a plan for deposing the North Korean government. FORSCOM and the Pacific Commands are likely beginning to work on such plans. (He has this power.) They are also fine-tuning the old Clinton Air Strike plan.

        The memo was just an informal expression of the Sec. of Defense's view. Powell and the State Department strongly oppose military action in North Korea. For now, he'll get his way. However, it's clear North Korea will be the direction our military is going to turn toward.

        China certainly don't want North Korea to become nuclear capable. Aside from the security risk, such a situation will cause a dramatic increase in US military presence in Asia. We'll likely move SSBN's into the region, along with increased CVBG and SAG patrols.

        I'm not certain Beijing is prepared to either overthrow Kim Jong-il's regime, or allow the US to invade North Korea. They might be prepared to permit air strikes. I have doubts beyond that. Invasion would also require the support of the South Koreans, Japanese and Russians. Putin is certainly not going to roll with the US on that. South Korea is not prepared to go to war also.

        I'm not comfortable with China acting unilaterally on North Korea either. There is already growing concerns that China is preparing to increase it's global footprint. I don't want history to say we gave the first opportunity to test out their new doctrine. Besides, China is having alot of internal problems. They are neither in the political or diplomatic position to actually mount some kind of coup in North Korea.

        If China did attempt a coup or invasion, more likely than not, it would fail, and make matters worse. A coup would fail because of the lack of intelligence. Invasion would likely succeed, but China would face alot of international opposition. More importantly, it would need to deal with an economically bankrupted, and politically crippled North Korea.

        (The last paragraph is also why I don't believe war or a coup is a good ideal.)

        I believe Kim is making a series of bad calculations likely originating from paranoia and a lack of experience. I'm not sure he is ready to send troops marching south. Kim knows his military would get their butts handed to them. The nuclear weapons are more like an insurance policy. If he did invade the south, and it failed, nuclear weapons might keep us from pursuing his forces across the 38th Parallel. Kim likely also fear a sudden attack from the US and South Korea. Bush didn't help things with his Axis of Evil crap. ( ) Russia and China are either not in position to, or willing to support Kim. The nuclear weapons make up for all this.

        The nuclear weapons are also a mean for him to blackmail it's neighbors and the US. Blackmail has always been successful for North Korea. This could very well be a continuation of this policy. However, the US isn't cooperating. They want one-on-one conversations with the US to minimize the exposure of their very weak position, and save face.

        I believe North Korea just want more concessions without commitment. We should not cooperate. Doing so will only encourage Kim. We need to build a strong alliance committed to either disarming or containing North Korea. If Kim decides to get stupid and invade the South or worst, then we cancel his *ss. Right now, though, we should focus on diplomacy. I really don't want to go to war in Korea. Alot of soldiers will be killed. If push comes to shove, I'll change my mind. However, diplomacy is still our best option.
        "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Deltapooh
          I'm not certain Kim is finished just yet. Rumsfield has the political skill of deranged monkey. There is not much support for an invasion of North Korea. Bush needs to worry about getting re-elected. His tax cut proposal is meeting alot of opposition, even from within his own party. I'm certain the senior Republican leadership have stressed to Bush the need to focus on the domestic front. Even the talk of war with North Korea is politically hazardous right now.

          Rumsfield is likely calling for "hypothecial plans" to be instituted. We don't really have a plan for deposing the North Korean government. FORSCOM and the Pacific Commands are likely beginning to work on such plans. (He has this power.) They are also fine-tuning the old Clinton Air Strike plan.

          The memo was just an informal expression of the Sec. of Defense's view. Powell and the State Department strongly oppose military action in North Korea. For now, he'll get his way. However, it's clear North Korea will be the direction our military is going to turn toward.

          China certainly don't want North Korea to become nuclear capable. Aside from the security risk, such a situation will cause a dramatic increase in US military presence in Asia. We'll likely move SSBN's into the region, along with increased CVBG and SAG patrols.

          I'm not certain Beijing is prepared to either overthrow Kim Jong-il's regime, or allow the US to invade North Korea. They might be prepared to permit air strikes. I have doubts beyond that. Invasion would also require the support of the South Koreans, Japanese and Russians. Putin is certainly not going to roll with the US on that. South Korea is not prepared to go to war also.

          I'm not comfortable with China acting unilaterally on North Korea either. There is already growing concerns that China is preparing to increase it's global footprint. I don't want history to say we gave the first opportunity to test out their new doctrine. Besides, China is having alot of internal problems. They are neither in the political or diplomatic position to actually mount some kind of coup in North Korea.

          If China did attempt a coup or invasion, more likely than not, it would fail, and make matters worse. A coup would fail because of the lack of intelligence. Invasion would likely succeed, but China would face alot of international opposition. More importantly, it would need to deal with an economically bankrupted, and politically crippled North Korea.

          (The last paragraph is also why I don't believe war or a coup is a good ideal.)

          I believe Kim is making a series of bad calculations likely originating from paranoia and a lack of experience. I'm not sure he is ready to send troops marching south. Kim knows his military would get their butts handed to them. The nuclear weapons are more like an insurance policy. If he did invade the south, and it failed, nuclear weapons might keep us from pursuing his forces across the 38th Parallel. Kim likely also fear a sudden attack from the US and South Korea. Bush didn't help things with his Axis of Evil crap. ( ) Russia and China are either not in position to, or willing to support Kim. The nuclear weapons make up for all this.

          The nuclear weapons are also a mean for him to blackmail it's neighbors and the US. Blackmail has always been successful for North Korea. This could very well be a continuation of this policy. However, the US isn't cooperating. They want one-on-one conversations with the US to minimize the exposure of their very weak position, and save face.

          I believe North Korea just want more concessions without commitment. We should not cooperate. Doing so will only encourage Kim. We need to build a strong alliance committed to either disarming or containing North Korea. If Kim decides to get stupid and invade the South or worst, then we cancel his *ss. Right now, though, we should focus on diplomacy. I really don't want to go to war in Korea. Alot of soldiers will be killed. If push comes to shove, I'll change my mind. However, diplomacy is still our best option.
          The best option is just to withdraw our troops from South Korea, and give them nukes as well as give nukes to Japan and Taiwan. Problem solved.

          We don't really have any allies in the region except Taiwan, so there's no point in being in South Korea any longer since they are seeking reunification and not victory and our defense of their nation is not wanted.
          "Speaking here in my capacity as a polished, sophisticated European as well, it seems to me the laugh here is on the polished, sophisticated Europeans. They think Americans are fat, vulgar, greedy, stupid, ambitious and ignorant and so on. And they've taken as their own Michael Moore, as their representative American, someone who actually embodies all of those qualities." - Christopher Hitchens

          Comment


          • #6
            Please don't laugh

            but in this case I think the best placed for intervention and fully accepted by china is UN, probably mainly china troops under control of UN with US air support.
            It is not a joke but it would save the face of China

            There is no doubt at all, even for the great Jack, that NK has nukes
            NK accept visit of inspectors to remove them or UN intervene. The context here is realy clearer, and no one will contest the dagger on throat made by an NK driven by a psychotic president, with a people more more starved than Iraquis.

            If you take time to think quietly (don't charge since the Word UN is told) you will see that this solutiuon is obvious . Pbm is that US administration is a little bit touchy? since they got fingers burnt on preceeding one

            Der Wanderer
            The Best weapon ever:a good Joke. The Best shield ever: Humour
            JLBETIN© Aka Der Wanderer TOAW Section Leader is a █ WHQ/SZO/XG/Gamesquad® product since 01/2003
            The Birth of European Army Tournament round Three is opened

            Comment


            • #7
              Maybe the EU could fight this one? The US military needs a breather...
              "There is no great genius without some touch of madness."

              Seneca (5 BC - 65 AD)

              Comment


              • #8
                Current thinking appears to be that NK has the bomb.

                As I've said before, I still think they are all bluster and no substance.
                Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Chuck
                  Maybe the EU could fight this one? The US military needs a breather...
                  No ,not because they can't, no they musn't. It must be a China lead operation, with other troops as SK, vietnamesee why not,
                  Indian maybe.

                  No Western troops, or not a big organisation.

                  Other way the "colonial/capitalist country action" argue can go once more

                  Der Wanderer
                  The Best weapon ever:a good Joke. The Best shield ever: Humour
                  JLBETIN© Aka Der Wanderer TOAW Section Leader is a █ WHQ/SZO/XG/Gamesquad® product since 01/2003
                  The Birth of European Army Tournament round Three is opened

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jlbetin


                    No ,not because they can't, no they musn't. It must be a China lead operation, with other troops as SK, vietnamesee why not,
                    Indian maybe.

                    No Western troops, or not a big organisation.

                    Other way the "colonial/capitalist country action" argue can go once more

                    Der Wanderer
                    Why can't Asians be colonialist or capitalist?
                    "There is no great genius without some touch of madness."

                    Seneca (5 BC - 65 AD)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I don't think the South Koreans would like a large Chinese presence on their border.Korea has its own histroy with China from what i understand.Lets resurrect SEATO and let them deal with it

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by John Paul
                        I don't think the South Koreans would like a large Chinese presence on their border.Korea has its own histroy with China from what i understand.Lets resurrect SEATO and let them deal with it
                        No one wants to see the Chinese invade really. They would probably keep going until they got to Puson.
                        "There is no great genius without some touch of madness."

                        Seneca (5 BC - 65 AD)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          If China were ever to get some solid intel that NK has the bomb, we may see some possible military action on their part.

                          China can't control the North Korean government like they used to. It would be in China's best interest to take action herself rather than see American troops on their doorstep.
                          Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I'm not too certain anyone would really feel comfortable with China poised on the 38th Parallel. There's no way to guarantee they will support our interest. We'll be replacing one threat with another. The US will need Chinese support throughout this crisis, but I don't believe it's in our best interest to support a Chinese charge into North Korea. At the very least, it might encourage China's expansive policies, and threaten our own initiative in Asia.

                            War would not benefit anyone really. I doubt anykind of nation-building operation would be successful. And whoever chooses to invades will be stuck in more ways than one, closer than ever to their worst enemy. If China moves in, the US will likely commit more forces to the defense of South Korea. If the US invades the North, China could end up reacting negatively.

                            Yet, a nuclear armed North Korea threatens everyone. The US, along with most of Europe see Asia as the new front. We already have enough problems to deal with. A nuclear armed North Korea would sap resources. Those who support withdrawal from South Korea would have their dreams shattered.

                            I do believe Europe is being too quite collectively. I don't blame the EU for this. IMHO, China and Russia really don't want Europe involved. However, we need to change that. Kim needs to see "no-one" is on his side, nor will support his antics. I would not advise the European countries to commit itself too much. It should advise NK it supports the ongoing negotations, and demand North Korea honors its responsibilities. Future "policies" should be based on how North Korea responds to the ongoing diplomatic effort. A statement like that avoids giving Bush any kind of war stick he can beat our allies with later on. Yet, it warns North Korea that the EU is watching and could easily support war should it continue it's current policies.
                            "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Don't get me wrong.

                              I'm not advocating a war in North Korea in the slightest sense.

                              There are 2 ways China can handle this issue.

                              1. If they feel they have a reasonable amount of control over the NK government, they can go through the motions of appeasing the US, convincing NK to commit to some concessions while still maintaining a distraction for the US so she can continue her policies in Asia with minimal interference.

                              2. If they feel they have no control over the NK government, they will have a fear over the instability that nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula will bring to the region. That, coupled with a greatly increased American presence in the Western Pacific, may be enough for China to bring the hammer down on NK.

                              The US response is a key to this whole issue. So far, Bush seems to be handling it pretty well, but his track record in Foreign Affairs so far leaves me skeptical for the future of the region.
                              Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                              Comment

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