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  • Situation in Iraq after handing over power

    What do you think will happen once the Iraqi's are given more power on July 1st? Do you think the current insurgency will die down as Iraqis assume more power? Will it continue at it's current level in a continued attempt to destroy what the Coalition has sought to build for Iraq? Will the insurgency increase, as more Iraqis start to get a taste of independence and demand the Coalition troops get out of their country? Is it impossible to say due to the influx of foreign nationals who are stirring the pot irregardless of conditions inside Iraq?
    0
    It will improve as Iraqis assume power
    0%
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    It will remain the same, until elections in '05
    0%
    0
    It will get worse, as Iraqis get taste of independence
    0%
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    It's impossible to say, due to foreign terrorists
    0%
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    Our forefathers died to give us freedom, not free stuff.

    I write books about zombies as E.E. Isherwood. Check me out at ZombieBooks.net.

  • #2
    Most likely only incrementally, but the situation will improve - exactly in proportion to the Iraqis' willingness to aid and support their national and local leaders. National elections should bring added stability, as the people of Iraq are able to choose the representatives that they want, they trust, they believe will steer Iraq in the right direction.

    Like the nations of Eastern Europe, the recovery of Iraq will be a work-in-progress - it will not occur rapidly. Impatience on the part of the Iraqis will only encourage a return to autocratic rule, for only that political denizen will bring rapidl change to Iraq, and then only at a terrible price.
    Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
    (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

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    • #3
      I'd liketo think that the situation will improve, but somehow I just think the Iraqis are going to lose it completely once they are in charge. I hope I'm wrong.

      Dr. S.
      Imagine a ball of iron, the size of the sun. And once a year a tiny sparrow brushes its surface with the tip of its wing. And when that ball of iron, the size of the sun, is worn away to nothing, your punishment will barely have begun.

      www.sinisterincorporated.co.uk

      www.tabletown.co.uk

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      • #4
        "Better" depends on who asks-

        [My fifth post, I think! Fun!!]

        If you're an Iraqi, post-6/30 will DEFINATELY be better. There may actually be more violence, perhaps an attempted coup, etc.: but at least it will be "OUR" (meaning Iraqi) bastards in charge that are messing things up by what they do and don't do.

        If you're an American primarily concerned with anti-terror, post-6/30 will actually be fairly meaningless. The Bush/Cheney doctrine has already succeeded.

        Ah! What do I mean, "Bush/Cheney Doctrine?" Namely: the Anglo-American purpose in Iraq is to convince those few extreme-Islam fundamentalists who are terrorists, as well as those wealthy extreme-Islam-fundamental wealthy families that support them and the Middle-East governments that harbor them -- that allowing, supporting, harboring and helping extreme-Islam fundamental terrorists to attack America is a very, very, very risky thing. The "Bush/Cheney Doctrine" is simply to convince the very wealthy and very powerful of the Middle East that there is a very direct link from "Attack American Soil" to "Bye-Bye!" To paraphrase: "Mess with the best and die like the rest."

        [Note to Moderator: I am not being racist or a bigot. The overwhelming majority of Muslims want peace and prosperity. It's just the extreme fundamental fringe that supports terrorism that I am referring to.]

        Some might say, "What about the latest bomber found in America?" I would answer, "He was infiltrated in 2000 - long before the Bush/Cheney Doctrine began." Some might say, "Isn't world-wide terrorism on the rise?" I would answer, "WORLD-wide terrorism is on the rise. Attacks on American soil since 9-11: Zero."

        In any case, I am ranting on and on about all of this because I believe that most Americans fall into this exact category: We secretly don't care much about Iraq - just make sure that America doesn't experience another 9-11.

        If you're an American that supports "Democracy In Iraq," then the post-6/30 Iraq will be a dissapointment. Cultures don't change that quickly! The best to be hoped for is an Iraq government that is more respectful of its people. We shall see...
        -Love Protects-

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        • #5
          Until the foreign terrorist are forced out of the country and the 'Mad Mullah' brought to heel; it's going to be a rocky road for the Iraqis.

          Cheers!


          :armed:
          Eagles may fly; but weasels aren't sucked into jet engines!

          "I'm not expendable; I'm not stupid and I'm not going." - Kerr Avon, Blake's 7

          What didn't kill us; didn't make us smarter.

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          • #6
            Could it be possible that when we turn Saddam and the government over to them they just let the man go?
            The meeting of two personalities is like the contact of two chemical substances: if there is any reaction, both are transformed. -Carl Jung

            Hell is other people. -Jean-Paul Sarte

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            • #7
              Originally posted by BarcelonaBlom
              Could it be possible that when we turn Saddam and the government over to them they just let the man go?
              I doubt they would do that, but I do have serious concerns about their ability to hold him without someone getting to him.

              Dr. S.
              Imagine a ball of iron, the size of the sun. And once a year a tiny sparrow brushes its surface with the tip of its wing. And when that ball of iron, the size of the sun, is worn away to nothing, your punishment will barely have begun.

              www.sinisterincorporated.co.uk

              www.tabletown.co.uk

              Comment


              • #8
                Talk about a hard race to call - it is certain that the terrorists will continue to plague Iraq until they are neutralized to the point of being irrelevant. This does not imply complete (or nearly) annihilation, only that they are faced with the options of running away, or annihilation may well then occur. The elected assembly also faces challenges - if numbers of seats are allocated to the various ethnic and religious groups, they elections are not truly free. If the elections do proceed freely, then it is rational to assume that the Shia will hold a larger percentage of the seats, leading to dissent by lesser represented groups - how this will paly out is not easily predictable. It takes only one group to scuttle the elections with their complaints - the Kurds are well within this category. Ideally, the elected representatives will not conduct themselves solely as Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Chaldean, etc, and will rather be Iraqis first. Then again, ideally every nation's political and ethnic groups would behave so. Success or failure, barring a new coup, will not be truly evident for years.
                Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
                (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

                Comment


                • #9
                  The uncertainy is one of the reasons there is going to be a large US military and 'displomatic' presence in Iraq for some years. Iraq does not have the government or social institutions, let alone the traditions of a government. Until those become stable and established the US will need to be there. This could a generation or more. If we can suceed at this, it could bring radical changes about in the middle east.

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                  • #10
                    Nice poll, we will see what happens. :whistle:

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Death for Saddam?

                      Salem Chalabi (related to Kurd leader, erstwhile US ally and Iranian agent Ahmed Chalabi?), in charge of forming the tribunal that will try Saddam Hussein and his Baathist cronies, said that the Iraq Assembly that will assume power on 30 June reserve the right to implement the death penalty on the Baathists when the tribunal is seated, in opposition to US adminstrator Paul Bremer's suspension of the death penalty.
                      Death Penalty for Iraqi Tribunal

                      Additionally, an officer in the "Fallujah Brigade" denied US claims that al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's safehouse was struck by airstrikes on Sunday.

                      Zarqawi's safehouse missed says Iraqi officer

                      With only ten days until the handover occurs, what will we see in Iraq between now and the holding of free elections next year?
                      Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
                      (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Missed? Bullshit!

                        Secondary explosions lasted 20 minutes.
                        On the Plains of Hesitation lie the blackened bones of countless millions who, at the dawn of victory, sat down to rest-and resting... died. Adlai E. Stevenson

                        ACG History Today

                        BoRG

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                        • #13
                          Re: Missed? Bullshit!

                          Originally posted by Admiral
                          Secondary explosions lasted 20 minutes.
                          Hard to say - if this officer was on the scene, he may have sources that are far more illustrative of what happened there. One good on-the-scene source is better than any satellite imagery or at-a-distance observation.
                          Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
                          (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I can only see it getting worse. The foreign terrorists will use the Iraqi's inability to enforce their own security to carry out further attacks. The attacks are to force the coalition out of Iraq, and they will hit the easiest targets. The attacks will not stop until the coalition leaves.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              This Too Shall Pass

                              Originally posted by michammer
                              I can only see it getting worse. The foreign terrorists will use the Iraqi's inability to enforce their own security to carry out further attacks. The attacks are to force the coalition out of Iraq, and they will hit the easiest targets. The attacks will not stop until the coalition leaves.
                              There is one thing that could change: the Iraqis who are about to be in charge will be quite, quite ruthless and not at all inclined to obey "civiled rules of war" as the current Anglo-Americans are.

                              [Note to moderator: This ain't a bigoted or racists statement. I'm talking about all the cultures of the Middle East, including Israel.]

                              So the key for America will be: do we insist on maintaining security control of the entire country, or will we really let the Iraqis decide their security issues and we'll just focus on keeping our bases and the highways secure?

                              It'll be interesting to see. I'm guessing that we'll let the Iraqis declare their martial law and let them run rampant on the terrorists...with positive results for the Iraqis and ourselves.
                              :armed:
                              -Love Protects-

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