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  • Is Iran in transition?

    I didn't notice that Iran had an 'election' coming up shortly after the US election next year.

    An article from the Economist:

    Who’s the boss in Iran?

    . . .
    Mr Larijani is widely viewed as clever, pragmatic, and increasingly uncomfortable with the belligerence of Iran’s populist president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But he is no softy, no secularist and no liberal. The son and son-in-law of powerful ayatollahs, he ran the state broadcasting for ten years until 2004; during that time, he was noted for seeking to expunge foreign influence from the airwaves. Before that he had been minister of culture and Islamic guidance. Though appointed to run the national security council by the president, he has long been considered close to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who has the last word in every aspect of Iranian policy—and therefore plainly outranks and outguns President Ahmadinejad, who nonetheless captures more of the world’s fearful attention.
    . . .
    Last edited by GCoyote; 24 Oct 07, 19:04. Reason: forgot to link the link
    Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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  • #2
    Yep, I've pointed out before that they have elections due, and I am willing to bet my bottom dollar the the Iranian public is so sick of this guy's shenanigans that he has almost no chance of winning.

    The question is, who will win, and if he is a relative moderate, will the US still keep him at arms lenght?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Desert King View Post
      Yep, I've pointed out before that they have elections due, and I am willing to bet my bottom dollar the the Iranian public is so sick of this guy's shenanigans that he has almost no chance of winning.

      The question is, who will win, and if he is a relative moderate, will the US still keep him at arms lenght?
      Whoever will win will be based solely upon who the Iranian immans want in there, not the general public.
      "If you are right, then you are right even if everyone says you are wrong. If you are wrong then you are wrong even if everyone says you are right." William Penn.

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      • #4
        Iranian president is only N.5 in government.

        while Iran is a democracy at local level, at higher level and on the clergy it isn't.

        Iranians want more freedom, more rights, and want less of the religious interverence in everyday life. they also want their country to be respected and aknowledged as the regional power it is and should be. demographics are also towards the right direction (less children per woman and decreasing fast) vast number of young people wanting a better future, etc.

        can elections help?
        can agression help? (I think not)


        imho, the best was is trade and commerce. you dont' attack people you profit from - that's the ultimate - and only? - good thing we learn from the anglo-saxon world. trade rules!
        "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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        • #5
          I watched an interview on BBC this morning in regards elections in Iran and what was basically said was that though there are many who would like change and a more democractic approach very few ,if any, groups protest against the present government and president ,and if they do its off to the slammer for them and what the immans want, the immans get, and that all American proposed sanctions will do is harded peoples mind set and not solve a damn thing.....ie. Just because you do not like what my country does, does not give you the right to tell me how my country should behave.

          Piero is right in his post...respect is required even if you do not agree with them

          George or Conny...you will not get any cooperation from these folks by attempting to bully them.

          Well got to go and give my buddy a hand deliver a boat from Toulon (fr) to Almeria (sp) then go home Canada for Christmas

          per ardua ad astra
          Last edited by Bow; 25 Oct 07, 10:12.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by trailboss49 View Post
            Whoever will win will be based solely upon who the Iranian immans want in there, not the general public.
            THey have influence (and lots of it) on who is picked. But in the end its the people who elect. and they sent a very strong message when they elected khatami before ahmadinijad

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Desert King View Post
              THey have influence (and lots of it) on who is picked. But in the end its the people who elect. and they sent a very strong message when they elected khatami before ahmadinijad
              I think that most likely the person who gets the actual most votes probably does win in Iran. However, it will be the immans who will decide who the people are who run. If they don't want a person to fill the position then that person will either be jailed or liquidated before his name can be placed on the ballot.
              "If you are right, then you are right even if everyone says you are wrong. If you are wrong then you are wrong even if everyone says you are right." William Penn.

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              • #8
                Iran has had a vocal and educated middle/student class for some time who do want to be part of the modern world. They've had quite a few clashes with the police/religous authorities over the years. I believe there is a struggle for the heart of Iran between these two factions. I just wonder if the current sabre rattling over Iran's nuclear programme could make them close ranks.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                  Iran has had a vocal and educated middle/student class for some time who do want to be part of the modern world. They've had quite a few clashes with the police/religous authorities over the years. I believe there is a struggle for the heart of Iran between these two factions. I just wonder if the current sabre rattling over Iran's nuclear programme could make them close ranks.
                  That is my concern as well. The Iranian public seems to be pretty sick of this guy. He's brought nothing but confrontion on the International level and given a new life to the hated "Vice=Patrols".

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Of course...

                    In transition

                    From a decades long state sponsor of terrorism against the West; to a decades to come, oil drenched, state sponsor of terrorism with nukes. against the West. So is the trend here our friend? I'm sure Jimmy Carter, old Blind Baredai, and Al Gore (how fu%&$#% Nobel!) think so. Too bad Yasser is dead; he certainly would've fit RIGHT in with that bunch.

                    Yeah let's just let tis go on and sort itself out. How bad could that outcome be? And how likely is it?
                    Save America!! Impeach Obama!!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sino Invasion View Post
                      In transition

                      From a decades long state sponsor of terrorism against the West; to a decades to come, oil drenched, state sponsor of terrorism with nukes. against the West. So is the trend here our friend? I'm sure Jimmy Carter, old Blind Baredai, and Al Gore (how fu%&$#% Nobel!) think so. Too bad Yasser is dead; he certainly would've fit RIGHT in with that bunch.

                      Yeah let's just let tis go on and sort itself out. How bad could that outcome be? And how likely is it?
                      O' ones of short memories, dont forget they cooperated after 9/11 and got the US in touch with the Northern Alliance, nbecause the US cut off all ties with all groups after the Russian withrawl.

                      And things were quite ok until they were included in the Axis of Evil, despite State Dept pressure not to do so.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Desert King View Post
                        O' ones of short memories, dont forget they cooperated after 9/11 and got the US in touch with the Northern Alliance, nbecause the US cut off all ties with all groups after the Russian withrawl.

                        And things were quite ok until they were included in the Axis of Evil, despite State Dept pressure not to do so.
                        Yeah, and let us also not forget that the monkey leading Iran has also been pointed out by more than one of the kidnapped Americans that he helped hold them hostage for 444 days.
                        "If you are right, then you are right even if everyone says you are wrong. If you are wrong then you are wrong even if everyone says you are right." William Penn.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bow View Post
                          I watched an interview on BBC this morning in regards elections in Iran and what was basically said was that though there are many who would like change and a more democractic approach very few ,if any, groups protest against the present government and president ,and if they do its off to the slammer for them and what the immans want, the immans get, and that all American proposed sanctions will do is harded peoples mind set and not solve a damn thing.....ie. Just because you do not like what my country does, does not give you the right to tell me how my country should behave.
                          The chorus of voices that believe 'democracy is around the corner' in Iran is large and respectable. But that's like saying the Germans in 1939 believed in democracy. I'm sure many, maybe most of them did. MAD worked against the Soviets and the Chinese, but there's a world of difference between them and Iran. Those countries were concerned about self-preservation. Iran is a theocracy, something potentially(potentially!) more dangerous than the imperial Japanese, whose emperor was capable of desiring self-preservation. Maybe Hitler was as dangerous, but his followers perceived his mortality.
                          'We shall not capitulate -- no never!
                          We may be destroyed, but if we are, we shall
                          drag a world with us -- a world in flames.' -Adolf Hitler at Nuremburg, 1939

                          "There's no assurance with Iran that the notion of self-preservation will deter them. Ayatollah Kholmeini, the founder of th Islamic revolution said 'We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. Patriotism is another name for Paganism. I say let this land of Iran burn. I say let this land go up in smoke provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.' " -N. Padoris

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Bow View Post
                            I watched an interview on BBC this morning in regards elections in Iran and what was basically said was that though there are many who would like change and a more democractic approach very few ,if any, groups protest against the present government and president ,and if they do its off to the slammer for them and what the immans want, the immans get, and that all American proposed sanctions will do is harded peoples mind set and not solve a damn thing.....ie. Just because you do not like what my country does, does not give you the right to tell me how my country should behave.
                            The chorus of voices that believe 'democracy is around the corner' in Iran is large and respectable. But that's like saying the Germans in 1939 believed in democracy. I'm sure many, maybe most of them did.
                            MAD worked against the Soviets and the Chinese, but there's a world of difference between them and Iran. Those countries were concerned about self-preservation. Iran is a theocracy, something potentially(potentially!) more dangerous than the imperial Japanese, whose emperor was capable of desiring self-preservation. Maybe Hitler was as dangerous, but his followers perceived his mortality.
                            'We shall not capitulate -- no never!
                            We may be destroyed, but if we are, we shall
                            drag a world with us -- a world in flames.' -Adolf Hitler at Nuremburg, 1939

                            There's no assurance with Iran that the notion of self-preservation will deter them. Ayatollah Kholmeini, the founder of th Islamic revolution said

                            'We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. Patriotism is another name for Paganism. I say let this land of Iran burn. I say let this land go up in smoke provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.'
                            -Speech in Qom 1980
                            Last edited by macgregr; 29 Oct 07, 22:35.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                              I just wonder if the current sabre rattling over Iran's nuclear programme could make them close ranks.
                              One thing I have heard/read before was if economic sanctions are really detrimental to the ruling parties ability to stay in power.

                              If I remember correctly, it helps the ruling power by a) allowing them to portray themselves as somehow being "the victim" and b) means that the nation is cut off from the outside world (and new ideas, etc.).

                              Just something to think about, is all.

                              Now if you only had a source or webpage to quote, DoD.

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