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  • The surge working...?

    An interesting piece I ran across at the economist websight... on second thought, seeing I'm a member I hope you guys have access to this. Anyway...

    While the surge is helping reduce the violence in and around Baghdad, this series of graphs and subsequent analysis suggest that on a national scale things have improved very little.

    Ultimately, while I believe that security is necessary for Iraq to move forward politically, this entire issue comes down to whether or not the Iraqi politicians can get their ducks in a row and take advantage of the respite American troops are trying to give them... the question is how much longer are we going to put American troops in harms way to protect a dysfunctional government?



    http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysi...baghdad-surge/
    "The State is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else."

    Frederic Bastiat

  • #2
    Kurt, i believe ur right. in some areas it is working, on a tactical level. the "Awakening" movements are a giant leap forward. the Sunni tribes may have come to thier senses and realized thier only hope of having a say in the Iraqi Gov. is to ally themselves with the US. the murder of Shiek Sittar was a major blow. it has angered Sittar's tribe as well as US commanders. the fact that these murderers were caught by US Spec. Ops will only make the alliance stronger against AQ. they should turn them over to Sittar's people. sometimes battlefield justice is the only REAL justice. wat troubles me is the surge was supposed to give the Iraqi Gov. room to start real negotiations concerning oil revenue, power sharing etc. THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. who's to blame? can't blame Gen. Petraeus. or Ryan Crocker. how about....NOURI al-MALIKI and his stingy, stubborn iranian proxies for lack of progress? there is the problem. GET RID OF HIM. the Shia are just waiting for a POTUS that will pull out so they can ramp up thier war against the Sunni's. Maliki is an Iranian proxy. the Shia militias are the most dangerous element in Iraq. AQ has no base of support. they are being hunted down and killed. progress there? YES. progress within the Iraqi Gov.? NO. why do we put up with this Iranian puppet? i wish he would take a bullet. Strategically, the "surge" is NOT working. Dubya is just running out the clock, spewing alot of mularkey, and is hiding behind Petraeus. this mission was doomed from jump street. too much, too little, TOO LATE. where have you gone, Dumsfeld?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by RHYNO101AB View Post
      Kurt, i believe ur right. in some areas it is working, on a tactical level. the "Awakening" movements are a giant leap forward. the Sunni tribes may have come to thier senses and realized thier only hope of having a say in the Iraqi Gov. is to ally themselves with the US. the murder of Shiek Sittar was a major blow. it has angered Sittar's tribe as well as US commanders. the fact that these murderers were caught by US Spec. Ops will only make the alliance stronger against AQ. they should turn them over to Sittar's people. sometimes battlefield justice is the only REAL justice. wat troubles me is the surge was supposed to give the Iraqi Gov. room to start real negotiations concerning oil revenue, power sharing etc. THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. who's to blame? can't blame Gen. Petraeus. or Ryan Crocker. how about....NOURI al-MALIKI and his stingy, stubborn iranian proxies for lack of progress? there is the problem. GET RID OF HIM. the Shia are just waiting for a POTUS that will pull out so they can ramp up thier war against the Sunni's. Maliki is an Iranian proxy. the Shia militias are the most dangerous element in Iraq. AQ has no base of support. they are being hunted down and killed. progress there? YES. progress within the Iraqi Gov.? NO. why do we put up with this Iranian puppet? i wish he would take a bullet. Strategically, the "surge" is NOT working. Dubya is just running out the clock, spewing alot of mularkey, and is hiding behind Petraeus. this mission was doomed from jump street. too much, too little, TOO LATE. where have you gone, Dumsfeld?
      I agree more or less with your assessment minus the part on Malaki. I'm no fan of the guy but he isn't the ONLY proxy of Iran. The reality is that some 60+% of Iraqis are Shiites and the vast majority of Iranians are Shiites as well. As we have witness the Shiite/Sunni divide in Iraq is causing quiet a bit of trouble. The Iraqi Shiites as a whole will take what they can get from the Iranians their religious brothers. The issue isn't one guy being propped up by the Iranians but an entire system of Shiite militias being funded and supplied by the Iranians.
      "The State is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else."

      Frederic Bastiat

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      • #4
        It had the intended effect . . .

        It trashed the prevailing wisdom that the US would start pulling out after the 2006 shift in power on Capitol Hill. It actually succeeded in getting the Iraqis to make another attempt at rapprochement and aided in jump starting our first public talks with Iran in nearly 30 years.

        At this point it looks like the "surge effect", however large or small, has or is beginning to wear off. If George has another rabbit up his sleeve, now would be a good time to pull it out.
        Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by GCoyote View Post

          If George has another rabbit up his sleeve, now would be a good time to pull it out.
          Overall, two out of three said their views on the war had not been changed by presentations last week by Bush and Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

          http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070918/.../us_iraq_polls
          #occupyarmchairgeneral.
          Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true. Demosthenes.
          Against logic there is no armor like ignorance. Laurence J. Peter

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          • #6
            And don't forget that the original surge in sectarian and al-Qaeda violence in 2006 was partly a result of a perceived weakening of US resolve in Iraq.

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            • #7
              Kurt, ur right. Maliki is just 1 man. there are thousands of shia militia that are aligned with Iran. when the UK pulls out, they will have free reign. how does the US expect to continue re-supply from Kuwait to points north? MSR Tampa will become a hijackers dream.

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              • #8
                I think we may be putting off the inevitable. a full blown civil war between Shia militias and Sunni's. Is the US supposed to deploy troops down south to continue re-supply? there is not enough troops in country for that. Are they gonna re-call troops that have just left? the Brits, are a loyal and tough ally. they may have erred in letting the Shia militias gain power. that is who is running things down there. Militias. if they had been pro-active and nipped it early, things may have turned out different. keeping that MSR is going to be a MAJOR problem.

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                • #9
                  Re the US arming the Sunnies to fight the Shittes....didnt the US once arm the Mahadjine (spelling??) and Bin Laden to fight the Russians and once they were gone turned around and bit the US in the arse...isnt the High Command concerned about this happening again..or are memories short ??

                  per ardua ad astra

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                  • #10
                    How many men were sent in to make up the surge? I only ask because isn't the US gov't going to withdraw30,000 troops soon. Seems reinforcing with one hand and withdrawing with the other?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                      How many men were sent in to make up the surge? I only ask because isn't the US gov't going to withdraw30,000 troops soon. Seems reinforcing with one hand and withdrawing with the other?
                      I believe the additional troops provided for OFaQ (Operation Fardh al-Qanoon, IIRC) were on the order of four to five BCTs, plus auxiliary and support units.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Bow View Post
                        Re the US arming the Sunnies to fight the Shittes....didnt the US once arm the Mahadjine (spelling??) and Bin Laden to fight the Russians and once they were gone turned around and bit the US in the arse...isnt the High Command concerned about this happening again..or are memories short ??

                        per ardua ad astra
                        The group that Bin Laden was in received little, if any, support from the CIA.

                        The Stingers were a big blow to Russia that the CIA provided. Any remaining are so old that they no longer function and are not a hazard to the USA or coalition forces.

                        Most of the rest was small arms and ammunition. As far as can be researched none of the weapons the CIA provided has been used against the USA or coalition forces. Most were used against the Taliban during the years of unrest following the Russian exit.
                        "If you are right, then you are right even if everyone says you are wrong. If you are wrong then you are wrong even if everyone says you are right." William Penn.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                          How many men were sent in to make up the surge? I only ask because isn't the US gov't going to withdraw30,000 troops soon. Seems reinforcing with one hand and withdrawing with the other?
                          The reduction in troop strength approved by the President will return our military presence to pre-Surge levels.
                          "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Bow View Post
                            Re the US arming the Sunnies to fight the Shittes....didnt the US once arm the Mahadjine (spelling??) and Bin Laden to fight the Russians and once they were gone turned around and bit the US in the arse...isnt the High Command concerned about this happening again..or are memories short ??

                            per ardua ad astra
                            It's the list of options that is short. Defeating AQI and improving the security situation in Al-Anbar Province demand a working relationship with the local population. I'm almost certain the Sunnis will turn on us when the usefulness of our relationship evaporates (and it likely will). But for the moment, defeating Al-Qaeda is a high priority.
                            "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Deltapooh View Post
                              It's the list of options that is short. Defeating AQI and improving the security situation in Al-Anbar Province demand a working relationship with the local population. I'm almost certain the Sunnis will turn on us when the usefulness of our relationship evaporates (and it likely will). But for the moment, defeating Al-Qaeda is a high priority.
                              Ahhh, very good point. Let's not think that freedom and democracy are on the top of the agenda for Sunni tribal leaders.
                              "The State is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else."

                              Frederic Bastiat

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