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Putin's Splendid Little War' - intervention does not have to mean quagmire

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  • Putin's Splendid Little War' - intervention does not have to mean quagmire

    'Putin's Splendid Little War' - intervention does not have to mean quagmire

    Am currently considering/developing some tutorial topics on the Middle East and thought this might be an interesting thematic to explore.

    Essentially it's an idea, that some commentator's have recently pointed out.

    The suggestion being that Putin with his carefully planned, crafted and executed use of airpower to assist local 'native' (I can use the term and get away with it people BUT please don't try this at home!) to achieve 'stage one' limited objective (keeping Basher Baby in power) has provided a salutary lesson to the 'it'll be another Iraq-type quagmire' doomsayers in the Western political/military establishment.

    Of course the Russians don't operate under the same restrictions and conditions that Western military forces are supposed to.

    I don't think another Afghanistan-style quagmire is looming for the Russians.

    Regards lodestar

  • #2
    The big deciding factor still seems to be having boots on the ground.

    By supporting another military force rather than using their own, Russia helps to avoid the quagmire by allowing Assad's soldiers to take that burden themselves. Compare that to the US drone strikes as an example of how non-quagmire intervention options are part of any military thinking about the Middle East.

    In both of these decisions, the key reason for why they're not a "quagmire" for the intervening nations are the existence of an allied military force / state in the conflict already who either tacitly condones their actions, or acts as surrogate "boots on the ground".

    The reason Iraq especially acts as a contrast is because in Iraq the US and coalition partners were taking out a state on their own, not operating in support of a group with significant forces of their own. What happened in Syria in 2015 couldn't be repeated in Iraq in 2003.

    Comment


    • #3
      Way too early to tell one way or the other.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
        The big deciding factor still seems to be having boots on the ground.

        By supporting another military force rather than using their own, Russia helps to avoid the quagmire by allowing Assad's soldiers to take that burden themselves. Compare that to the US drone strikes as an example of how non-quagmire intervention options are part of any military thinking about the Middle East.

        In both of these decisions, the key reason for why they're not a "quagmire" for the intervening nations are the existence of an allied military force / state in the conflict already who either tacitly condones their actions, or acts as surrogate "boots on the ground".

        The reason Iraq especially acts as a contrast is because in Iraq the US and coalition partners were taking out a state on their own, not operating in support of a group with significant forces of their own. What happened in Syria in 2015 couldn't be repeated in Iraq in 2003.
        Should not have happened at all in 2003, imho.
        "We have no white flag."

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        • #5
          Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
          Should not have happened at all in 2003, imho.
          The question is how long could it be avoided? Considering the one million dead in the Iran Iraq war how much worse is the situation today because of Bush folly?

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          • #6
            A lot worse.
            "We have no white flag."

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post
              The question is how long could it be avoided? Considering the one million dead in the Iran Iraq war how much worse is the situation today because of Bush folly?
              The Bush follies were two-fold: 1) invading on a cooked-up pretext, and 2) IF invading was so darned necessary, not putting Iraq in a proper occupation lock-down.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                The reason Iraq especially acts as a contrast is because in Iraq the US and coalition partners were taking out a state on their own, not operating in support of a group with significant forces of their own. What happened in Syria in 2015 couldn't be repeated in Iraq in 2003.
                That does not apply to the Kurds in northern Iraq, who played exactly that kind of role, and continue to be the most capable ground force in both Iraq and Syria. But it's kind of indicative how when the fighting winds down, and they are no longer as necessary, they keep being forgotten, again, and again, and again...

                Heck, the Iraqi government could have called on the Peshmerga for help a lot sooner when Daesh started its push the other year, but left it too long due to Iraqi domestic policy issues, with the result of Daesh getting more entrenched that should have been actually necessary.

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                • #9
                  Effectively Rumsfeld was trying to do it on the cheap which was only going to work if he had had some proxy force to take over and batten down Iraq or he was prepared to pull out immediately and let either Iraq end up like Libya has today or watch the Iranians take over. There was no way to do it on the cheap
                  Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                  Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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                  • #10
                    The US intervention in Iraq / Russia in Syria

                    Originally posted by MarkV View Post
                    Effectively Rumsfeld was trying to do it on the cheap which was only going to work if he had had some proxy force to take over and batten down Iraq or he was prepared to pull out immediately and let either Iraq end up like Libya has today or watch the Iranians take over. There was no way to do it on the cheap
                    Surely the important lesson to learn was that it shouldn't have been 'done' at all.

                    Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 for Pete's Sake, the WMD justification was completely fabricated and bogus.
                    The damage done by Bush's folly to US image, interests and geopolitical position in the region was massive and probably going to take decades to repair.

                    The 'Vietnam Syndrome' so confidently declared dead and buried by Bush Snr at the end of the 1991 Gulf War is back with a vengeance.
                    The ability of any US administration to suggest a major US 'boots on the ground' option in the Mid-East is now very limited.


                    Nice going George, Donald, Dick, Paul and Richard - blithering idiots!

                    All those Iraqis dead for what?
                    All that US blood and treasure for what?

                    However, this thread is about how an intervention in the ME does not have to be a quagmire.

                    Who knows maybe the Russians may still find its easier to talk about limited intervention than to actually carry it out without eventual escalation?

                    Regards lodestar

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by lodestar View Post
                      Surely the important lesson to learn was that it shouldn't have been 'done' at all.

                      Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 for Pete's Sake, the WMD justification was completely fabricated and bogus.


                      Regards lodestar

                      1) wrong


                      2) wrong and irrelevant : no one said that Saddam was behind 9/11.


                      The attack on Iraq was more than justified and if Clinton had worried about his job as president,instead of amusing himself with Monica (and the others) , there would have been no need for the attack .

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MarkV View Post
                        Effectively Rumsfeld was trying to do it on the cheap which was only going to work if he had had some proxy force to take over and batten down Iraq or he was prepared to pull out immediately and let either Iraq end up like Libya has today or watch the Iranians take over. There was no way to do it on the cheap
                        That's not correct : the war was cheap and over in a few days and it was possible to leave Iraq without creating chaos.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Saudi money owns Americas political elite. Following 9/11 the anger of the American people was deliberately misdirected to places where it could be expended with absolutely no result except squandered billions and dead and wounded. The aim was to protect Saudi wahhabi ideology from being linked to salafist global terror.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ljadw View Post
                            That's not correct : the war was cheap and over in a few days and it was possible to leave Iraq without creating chaos.
                            Only if leaving the Baath Part still running the country more or less like Saddam did. Which would beg the question what the US was over there in the first place?

                            Alternatively if it had been done as a UN-led huge international project, with all the "nation building" one could shake a stick at lined up and ready. But the way the US played it, that becamse a non-starter.

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                            • #15
                              From Pravda, Alexander Prokhorenko

                              "Officer: command I am compromised, repeat I am compromised.

                              Command: please repeat and confirm

                              Officer: They have spotted me, there are shooting everywhere, i am pinned, request evacuation immediately

                              Command: evacuation request acknowledged

                              Officer: please hurry I am low on ammo, they seem to everywhere, I can’t hold them for too long please hurry

                              Command: Confirmed, hold them off, continue return of fire, go to safe position, air support is monitoring, state coordinates

                              Officer: gives coordinates which are blurred in the translation

                              Command: command repeats coordinates which are blurred. Confirm

                              Officer: confirmed, please hurry I am low on ammo, they are surroundig me, bastards

                              Command: 12 minutes until evacuation, return to safe line, I repeat return to safe line

                              Officer: They are close, I am surrounded, this may be the end, tell my family I love them dearly

                              Command: return to green line, continue return of fire, help is on the way, followed by air support

                              Officer: negative, I am surrounded, they are so many of these bastards

                              Command: 10 minutes, return to green line

                              Officer: I can’t they have surrounded me and are closing in, please hurry

                              Command: move to green line, repeat move to green line

                              Officer: They are outside, conduct the airstrike now please hurry, this is the end, tell my family I love them and i died fighting for my motherland.

                              Command: Negative return to green line

                              Officer: I cant command, I am surrounded, they are outside, I don’t want them to take me and parade me, conduct the airstrike, they will make a mockery of me and this uniform. I want to die with dignity and take all these bastards with me. please my last wish, conduct the airstrike, they will kill me either way.

                              Command: please confirm your request

                              Officer: They out outside, this is the end commander, thank you, tell my family and my country I love them. Tell them I was brave and I fought until I could no longer. Please take care of my family, avenge my death, good bye commander, tell my family I love them

                              Command: No response, orders the airstrike"

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