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"Flotilla Fallout" by Douglas MacGregor

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  • "Flotilla Fallout" by Douglas MacGregor

    A new article by Col. MacGregor over on DefenseNews Flotilla Fallout - Damage Done by Israel's Raid Echoes in Region. Here are some snips:

    Washington's eyes are now justifiably riveted on Ankara where the sea change is well underway. The attack on the Turkish-flagged ship and the killing of Turkish citizens was an affront to Turkish national pride. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister and a devout Muslim, confronts the situation with the wholehearted support of an enraged Turkish population.

    Turkey is the 13th-largest economy in the world. Its military establishment, the largest among European NATO members, is also well-equipped, disciplined and aggressively nationalistic. Turkey, not Iran, is the region's true superpower, a nation-state with the power to create a new Middle East.
    and

    Once again, events in Gaza may put these arrangements at risk. Turks, secular or Islamist, never had much incentive to allow anti-Turkish Kurds to exploit 3 percent of the world's oil reserves in northern Iraq to bankroll regional aims and terrorism against Turkey.

    Ankara and Tehran have reportedly discussed spheres of influence in Iraq when the United States leaves, giving Turkey control of Iraq's northern (Kurdish) territory, as well as its enormous oil wealth, leaving Iran to control the central and southern Iraq through its Shiite Arab surrogates in Baghdad.

    Now, Turkey and Iran may form substantive agreements that are antithetical to Washington's interests.

    Meanwhile, if a confrontation with the Turks over Gaza ensued, Turkish conventional military strength might lead Israel to threaten use of nuclear weapons against Turkey. If NATO, under pressure from Washington, refused to acknowledge Turkey's protection under Article V of the NATO Charter (NATO's nuclear umbrella), then NATO would certainly dissolve and the Turks would likely turn to Russia, Iran or even China for support.

    Ankara also could go nuclear much faster than Tehran, given the assistance of the Pakistani military establishment, the Turkish military's longtime strategic partner.
    and

    Israeli occupation of Lebanon and Palestine enabled Hizbollah and Hamas to emerge as viable political forces, while U.S. military occupation of Iraq expanded Iranian strategic power and influence.

    Eventually, the United States will tire of pouring billions into contractors and making payoffs to Arabs and Afghans and withdraw its forces from Iraq and Afghanis-tan. But the Israelis contend with an insoluble security problem at their very gates. To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson's words, in Gaza and in the rest of the Palestinian territories, "Israel has a wolf by the ear, and Israel can neither hold him, nor safely let him go."

    Whatever course Israel adopts in the months ahead, it must measure carefully what it might gain from maintaining the blockade by what it might lose, not just in Gaza, but from the Nile to the Black Sea.
    The full article is linked above.

  • #2
    Well, to counter it

    We are currently facing an odd situation the likes of which we have not seen for many years: Israel’s enemies are in panic, or is it paranoia, for fear that Israel will be attacking them. Hezbollah is convinced that it will suffer a blow at any moment, Hamas is still licking its wounds, Syria is concerned, and Iran’s foreign minister already declared that Israel is a “nation of crazy people” with “mad leaders” who may launch a strike.
    http://www.gplanet.co.il/forum/forum...p?TID=988&PN=1

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...851015,00.html

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    • #3
      Hello Golani

      What's the thinking about the impact of the Leviathan natural gas findings? I've read some articles guessing that it will really upset Israel's neighbors for Israel to actually be an energy exporter. One article also said that it might help relations with the west since it might balance Israel against the Arabs in terms of trade:

      Israel as an exporter of energy would derive a certain degree of clout in the world that hitherto it has not enjoyed. When favoring Israel's Muslim enemies over Israel, many countries cite the oft quoted saying, "The Kingdom of Heaven may run on righteousness, but the Kingdoms of the Earth run on oil." Or natural gas, as it were. The incentive to treat Israel as a pariah to appease Muslim oil countries would be somewhat lessened by Israel being able to export energy to other countries.
      Think this is worth a thread of its own?

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      • #4
        I think this should go on a separate thread (possibly even in the Science section, I bet the guys there know much, much, more then I do) I'd give my 0.02 cents there

        let me know!

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Golani View Post
          I think this should go on a separate thread (possibly even in the Science section, I bet the guys there know much, much, more then I do) I'd give my 0.02 cents there

          let me know!
          I'll post it in this forum. It gets more readership I think.

          Comment


          • #6
            Violence dampens hope of ending Turkey's Kurdish conflict

            Apparently, Turkey struck 3 klicks into Iraq in persuits of Kurd guerillas. With that being said, I do not believe that Turkey is foolish enough to believe that incursions into northern Iraq will inspire the wrath of the United States. Iran has been playing games in Iraq as well, and that is well know. The bottom line is that if either country believe that economic necessity is going to prevent US intevention they may find themselves rudely surprised.

            ANKARA: Mounting Kurdish rebel violence in Turkey and the harsh military response fed fears Friday that an already fragile government bid for a peaceful end to the 25-year conflict is in its death throes.

            The army said at least 130 members of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) had been killed inside Turkey and in an air raid on rebel hideouts in neighbouring Iraq since violence flared anew in March, adding it had lost 43 personnel.
            http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/W...ow/6064107.cms
            Give me a fast ship and the wind at my back for I intend to sail in harms way! (John Paul Jones)

            Initiated Chief Petty Officer
            Hard core! Old School! Deal with it!

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            • #7
              Last official deceleration I heard was of a 100 people killed.

              Where are the world's condemnations now, hello EU? UN? civil rights group? is anyone out there..?

              Will the USA not respond to an un-authorized IAF fly-by on the way to and from Iran just like they didn't respond to this BLUNT invasion of their air and ground space?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Golani View Post
                Last official deceleration I heard was of a 100 people killed.

                Where are the world's condemnations now, hello EU? UN? civil rights group? is anyone out there..?

                Will the USA not respond to an un-authorized IAF fly-by on the way to and from Iran just like they didn't respond to this BLUNT invasion of their air and ground space?
                Since when is Irak part of the USA?

                kelt

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                • #9
                  Since 2003.

                  As far as I know Iraq is American territory as far as international borders go, passing through their airspace, most definitely striking targets inside it, requires American authorization,

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                  • #10
                    We've been operating under a status of forces agreement (SOFA) for several years now. Iraq is operating as a sovereign nation.

                    The Shiite/Arab dominated central government is not going to do much about Turkish (or Iranian) incursions that weaken the Sunni/Kurds other than issue an occasional note of protest. These guys are taking power politics all the way.
                    Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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                    • #11
                      So why all the talk of Israel needing clearance from Obama?

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                      • #12
                        'Cause the US practically owns the world but don't worry China is trying to stop that.
                        ´
                        “You need to help people. I know it's not very Republican to say but you need to help people.” DONALD TRUMP, 2016

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Golani View Post
                          Where are the world's condemnations now, hello EU? UN? civil rights group? is anyone out there..?

                          Will the USA not respond to an un-authorized IAF fly-by on the way to and from Iran just like they didn't respond to this BLUNT invasion of their air and ground space?

                          So why all the talk of Israel needing clearance from Obama?
                          As God's chosen people, Israel is hated by Satan. Therefore, Israel will always be attacked by evil (Hitler, Stalin, Arafat, Ahmadinejad, etc.).

                          Don't worry, Golani, my Bible tells me that Israel will survive. Read Ezekiel 38 and 39.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Stalin & Hitler attacked Israel?
                            Israel wasn't even a country when Hitler was alive & was a really young country when Stalin died.
                            ´
                            “You need to help people. I know it's not very Republican to say but you need to help people.” DONALD TRUMP, 2016

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Jonathanrex1 View Post
                              Stalin & Hitler attacked Israel?
                              Israel wasn't even a country when Hitler was alive & was a really young country when Stalin died.


                              Seriously, dude, they were killing (or would love to kill in the case of Ahmadinejad) Jews by the truck load. Does it really matter that they didn't actually live in Israel?

                              Sorry if that was too big an intellectual leap for you.

                              Comment

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