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The Turkish Flotilla Incident - Who benefits?

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  • The Turkish Flotilla Incident - Who benefits?

    There are lots of players maneuvering to take advantage of the fallout from the May 30th incident.

    Fatah
    Gazans
    Hamas
    Hezbollah
    Palestinians in general
    Iran
    Israel
    Turkey

    Some analysis from Stratfor is attached below.
    Who do you think will come out ahead and why?
    Attached Files
    19
    Fatah
    0.00%
    0
    Gazans
    5.26%
    1
    Hamas
    10.53%
    2
    Hezbollah
    5.26%
    1
    Palestinians in general
    36.84%
    7
    Iran
    10.53%
    2
    Israel
    5.26%
    1
    Turkey
    21.05%
    4
    Other
    5.26%
    1

    The poll is expired.

    Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

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  • #2
    Depends. Short term, in every scenario, Hamas benefits.

    Long term, if it forces Israel to lift the blockade, potentially Hamas loses, and handled right Israel could benefit.

    Comment


    • #3
      Iran and Turkey...

      This would seem to be the last straw to irrevocably put Turkey in the Islamist's camp in general; and the Iran/Syria/Hizbullah/Hamas group in particular.

      I believe we'll keep seeing these convoys as they are a low cost, simple way to keep Israel on the defensive and possibly weaken the blockade of Gaza. The current one looks to be totally peaceful. I suppose they figure Israel will act far more aggressively this time with all the ensuing negative publicity.

      But the big question is; will we see the Main Act? That would be Turkish Navy ships escorting a convoy. That would up the stakes considerably and put the possibility of starting a regional war on the agenda. Turkey wouldn't be able to back down without looking both weak and foolish. Israel couldn't back down or they would look weak and it would give Hamas a HUGE victory.

      And if Israel attacked the Turkish ships? You can bet Turkey would immediately be on the horn to the US invoking NATO's commitment if a member state is attacked. What would Obama do then? Somewhere along the line here Iran may well decide that the time is ripe to launch an all out attack on Israel, along with Syria, Lebanon/Hizbullah, and Hamas. Plus this time they would have Turkey's military on their side.

      This could get real ugly real fast.
      Save America!! Impeach Obama!!

      Comment


      • #4
        Yes. It's a hot potato right now... Something must be done to defuse the situation. The question is, what? Maybe a neutral 3rd party can stand in to maintain the status quo? But who'd be stupid enough to do so?
        "We have no white flag."

        Comment


        • #5
          NO body wins. Israel just lost the most.
          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

          you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

          Comment


          • #6
            Interesting poll and question Coyote.
            Because of the attention and the public opinion the whole blockade will propably be lifted in the long run, so i voted for Palestines in general .

            Palestines are not just hamaz and hezbollah who i dont favour either.
            The humanitarian situation is very awfull though and definately needs to be adressed.
            Its really time for a third party to separate the two camps so both can concentrate on their own countries ,in the meanwhile taking a nasty source of tension out of the air wich is hopefully bringing more stability .
            Better for the world , for they both have proven not to be able to solve their issues amongst themselves in a peacefull way for decades now...
            ' Because it has Electrolytes ! '

            regards:
            Henk

            Comment


            • #7
              The winner is....Erdohan!!! Now all muslims see him as a potential leader for their avenge against sionism. And he has also a lot of friends in the western world... All the internal problems in Turkey seem very far now...
              A ME LE GUARDIE
              "Di noi tremò la nostra vecchia gloria. Tre secoli di fede e una vittoria". Gabriele D'Annunzio

              Comment


              • #8
                I agree with a short-term long-term separation.

                Short term, the wonderful triangle of Turkey-Hamas-Iran has the upper hand.

                Natural processes will show that Israel benefited from this world debacle, on many different levels.

                How long is long term?
                That's a different question.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
                  Maybe a neutral 3rd party can stand in to maintain the status quo? But who'd be stupid enough to do so?
                  If we're looking for a neutral third party,the letters UN won't be in their name.
                  ALL LIVES SPLATTER!

                  BLACK JEEPS MATTER!

                  BLACK MOTORCYCLES MATTER!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Sino Invasion View Post
                    And if Israel attacked the Turkish ships? You can bet Turkey would immediately be on the horn to the US invoking NATO's commitment if a member state is attacked. What would Obama do then?
                    The right thing for Obama to do would be to remind Turkey how they shafted us in '03.As I said before,if Turkey is moving towards islamic fundamentalism,they are dead to us as allies anyway and to hell with them.
                    ALL LIVES SPLATTER!

                    BLACK JEEPS MATTER!

                    BLACK MOTORCYCLES MATTER!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Tom Barnett suggests Turkey wins and the result will be a new nuclear power in the middle east. From Esquire's website:

                      The Real Israeli Raid Fallout: Turkey with a Bomb?. A snip:

                      Turkey's deputy prime minister called the raid "a dark stain on the history of humanity." So now Ankara has its bloody shirt, which will be used — once Tehran inevitably announces the weaponization of its nukes — to justify Turkey's rapid reach for the same. Just like Tehran cannot openly rationalize its bid for regional supremacy vis-à-vis archrival Saudi Arabia, Turkey requires an appropriate villain for its nuclear morality play. Anybody watching the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations over the past year knew that some cause célèbre was in the works. Suddenly, if perhaps on purpose, Turkey can claim that — despite its efforts to broker a non-nuclear peace in the region (including a recent enrichment deal engineered with Brazil) — it needs its own deterrent against Israel's nuclear arsenal, too.

                      Checkmate, Turkey.

                      And as for the Obama administration's dream of enlisting Turkey's UN Security Council vote for further sanctions against Iran, the White House is missing the larger point: Turkey is uninterested in punishing Israel. Turkey is interested in power. The White House, in pursuing Obama's naïve dream of a "world without nuclear weapons," is chasing pawns around the board.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by The Ibis View Post
                        Tom Barnett suggests Turkey wins and the result will be a new nuclear power in the middle east. From Esquire's website:

                        The Real Israeli Raid Fallout: Turkey with a Bomb?. A snip:
                        Maybe we should save them the time of develping them and send them some. Preferablly with a Dominos delievery time frame

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I would say the Gazans will benefit. I think this story, to the extent it was followed in the US, hurt Israel's reputation in the US, and even more so in other countries, especially in Western Europe. It seemed to me to be an excessive use of force. This will put pressure on Israel to be seen to be treating the Gazans better. Also, the fact that Egypt had to open the border (I think they had to from both an external and external public relations viewpoint) should help the Gazans.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Granatiere View Post
                            The winner is....Erdohan!!! Now all muslims see him as a potential leader for their avenge against sionism. And he has also a lot of friends in the western world... All the internal problems in Turkey seem very far now...
                            He, along with his party, certainly stand to gain quite a bit, but he must be careful as well. Kemal Ataturk steered Turkey away from the East a long time a ago, for many generations in fact. I am not sure that people that are used to getting by without having to receive the blessings of the local imam for as long anyone in Turkey can remember are all that enthusiastic for a reversal of their life style to a more conservative one that is based on Sharia laws.
                            Give me a fast ship and the wind at my back for I intend to sail in harms way! (John Paul Jones)

                            Initiated Chief Petty Officer
                            Hard core! Old School! Deal with it!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by The Ibis View Post
                              Tom Barnett suggests Turkey wins and the result will be a new nuclear power in the middle east. From Esquire's website:

                              The Real Israeli Raid Fallout: Turkey with a Bomb?. A snip:

                              I have been saying all along that the Israelis were set up like bowling pins!
                              Give me a fast ship and the wind at my back for I intend to sail in harms way! (John Paul Jones)

                              Initiated Chief Petty Officer
                              Hard core! Old School! Deal with it!

                              Comment

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