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  • Madrid: consequences

    Regardless of who is actually responsible for Madrid attack, the attack will have at least some effect on today's elections there. As far as I understand the Spanish participation in the war of terror is the one of the main issues in the elections. If Aznar's party wins, Spanish resolution to participate in the war of terror strengthens. His opponents have however promised to bring Spanish troops overseas home, which especially after the Madrid bombings, Al Qaida could then celebrate as a huge victory - they would claim that they have now knocked out one of the "crusader" states.

    If Spain is knocked out, Al Qaida will no doubt increase its efforts to organise bombings in Europe. Especially Germany and Italy would be prime targets, since both of their government's could be seen as vulnerable and at least Germany has considerable Al Qaida presence already. Attacks on other European states, even France, could be seen by Al Qaida as instrumental in adding European pressure to US to back down. We're already seeing demonstrations in Spain where people accuse the government for Al Qaida bombing - it is easy to see how similar minded people in France or elsewhere could start demonstrating against US if their country were the target of Al Qaida attack. While demonstrations themselves are pretty harmless, it could hamper future attempts of co-operation in the war of terror.

  • #2
    Re: Madrid: consequences

    Originally posted by pp(est)
    it is easy to see how similar minded people in France or elsewhere could start demonstrating against US if their country were the target of Al Qaida attack. While demonstrations themselves are pretty harmless, it could hamper future attempts of co-operation in the war of terror.
    Meaning if it WAS Al-Quaida, then it was pretty canny of them to mount an attack of this nature, and proves that they know just the right buttons to press when it comes to dividing and "conquering", or at least stirring up divisions amongst their enemies.

    We are dealing with a very intelligent enemy.

    Dr. S.
    Imagine a ball of iron, the size of the sun. And once a year a tiny sparrow brushes its surface with the tip of its wing. And when that ball of iron, the size of the sun, is worn away to nothing, your punishment will barely have begun.

    www.sinisterincorporated.co.uk

    www.tabletown.co.uk

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    • #3
      Apparently Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has already confirmed his intention to withdraw Spain from the war on terror. The US elections may be too tough a target for Al Qaida, but where in Europe are the next elections where they could achieve a similar victory?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Re: Madrid: consequences

        Originally posted by Doctor Sinister
        Meaning if it WAS Al-Quaida, then it was pretty canny of them to mount an attack of this nature, and proves that they know just the right buttons to press when it comes to dividing and "conquering", or at least stirring up divisions amongst their enemies.

        We are dealing with a very intelligent enemy.

        Dr. S.
        Yeah, they may have some innovative ideas, but they have shown that they are either unable or unwilliing to exploit their various operations. Watch the coming weeks to see if any operations even remotely similar in scale to Madrid occur. Due to all the planning,(site survey, operational details(infiltrating target country, getting to target undetected, exfiltrating after placement, etc.) , building, placing and setting devices, and leaving "clues". In addition, if they plan to claim to operation, they must script what their statement will reveal. al-Qaeda have shown itself to be resilient in general, but they have also shown themselves to be incapable of a sustained campaign. One must ask why this is so - are they overcautious, are only capable of sporadic operations, it is a financial issue? The following months will provide a variety of information, and it is only for those units and agencies to determine what is legitimate and what is not
        Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
        (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

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        • #5
          I think IMO that Al Quaida doesn't like to mount sustained operations because they feel that the Larger more impresive operations will make more of an impact. Europe has been dealing with bombings on small scale for a while. It is when you see 10 bombs go off in a short span of time killing about 200 and wounding many more they think that the message gets though better. Or the bombings of our embasies in Africa, Or the 9/11 attack. In their mind bigger is better.

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          • #6
            I think the reactions of people have shown that when it comes to terrorism bigger is better. If Spain actually withdraws, I don't see the need for Al Qaida to continue any operations in Spain for awhile. What they need to do now is scare other Europeans.

            There is going to be the elections for the EU parliament next summer, but there is little they can win there. Perhaps an attack to one of the polling stations to scare Europeans not to vote (however that would probably be high risk low yield operation, since I don't think there are going to be many voters, but the security level will no doubt be high). France will vote for senate this autumn. Poland will have elections for parliament and president in the autumn of 2005. Denmark will have parliamentary elections in november 2005. Can't find when the next big vote in Germany is going to be.

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            • #7
              I don't think we should see the lack of any follow-up as a failure by these scum to capitalise on their successes - I think it's more of the fact that they CAN'T because security ramps up a notch every time something like this happens and they just can't operate in the "open" for a while.

              Today is a very black day - we have seen the result of a democratic election directly influenced by a terrorist attack. It doesn't get much worse than this.

              Dr. S.
              Imagine a ball of iron, the size of the sun. And once a year a tiny sparrow brushes its surface with the tip of its wing. And when that ball of iron, the size of the sun, is worn away to nothing, your punishment will barely have begun.

              www.sinisterincorporated.co.uk

              www.tabletown.co.uk

              Comment


              • #8
                Madrid

                One of the most ominous comments I have heard noted "how terror groups can use their operations to influence elections", and then went further to predict that future elections in Europe may be "held hostage" to a terror group. It all seems so terribly simple, a terrorist group announces that a person or party should or should not be elected and give subtle (or not so subtle) hints of what will happen if they don't get their way. So simple, its brilliant.
                Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
                (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Wonder what the terror elevation in the US will be come November?
                  Its going to impact elections and other critical decisions worldwide.
                  I believe that Spain is showing the world that "terrorism will work to get what the terrorists want", by pulling out their troops.
                  Here we go back a step.................:nonono:

                  Mark
                  Deo Vindice
                  Si vis pacem, para bellum. (If you want peace, prepare for war.)

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                  • #10
                    This tactic can only work in places where the race is tight. It is not going to effect the majority of the voters, but apparently 4-6% swings are possible. I don't think that the attack has to result in complete reversal of policy as seems to be the case in Spain to be considered succesful. For example in US just defeating Bush, even if Kerry doesn't do anything differently would be seen as a great victory to Al Qaida. Must be a difficult position for politicians in this position.

                    I wonder what the socialists in Spain are thinking about this. They must understand that the decisive vote for them came basically from Al Qaida. On one hand they have the obligation to think about the voters who got scared and voted for them in the office, on the other hand they should also try to think what is in the best interests of Spain.

                    What would be the best way to counter these attacks? Information campaigns warning of possible attacks to influence elections - you would have to be careful for such campaigns simply not turn into an advertising campaign for the incumbents. It would be a disgrace to democracy, if any vote for opposition would be considered a vote for the enemy. In addition discrediting democracy is exactly what Al Qaida wants...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Spain's action is a threat to us all

                      I think Spain's action has condemned the western world to a series of attacks and is the most infamous decision is Spanish history.

                      I am thoroughly disgusted by their surrender and feel their membership in NATO should be reconsidered.

                      Now that AQ has been successful in this attack (having not been successful, if it was them, in attacks against Italy and other countries), their will to succeed will be reinforced. No member of the coalition is safe now, and we have Spain to thank for it.
                      Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                      Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                      "Never pet a burning dog."

                      RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
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                      http://www.sca.org
                      http://www.scv.org/
                      http://www.scouting.org/

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                      • #12
                        Here is a paste from EUobserver

                        "In an interview on Monday (15 March), the prime minister-elect promised to revive relations with France and Germany and change his country's position on Iraq.

                        In the strongest terms possible he criticised UK prime minister Tony Blair and US President George W. Bush for the war in Iraq.

                        He said it "was a disaster and the occupation continues to be a disaster".

                        "You cannot organise a war with lies. Bush and Blair should do some self-criticism to avoid repeating what has happened".

                        In an interview on Monday (15 March), the prime minister-elect promised to revive relations with France and Germany and change his country's position on Iraq.

                        In the strongest terms possible he criticised UK prime minister Tony Blair and US President George W. Bush for the war in Iraq.

                        He said it "was a disaster and the occupation continues to be a disaster".

                        "You cannot organise a war with lies. Bush and Blair should do some self-criticism to avoid repeating what has happened"."


                        So basically he did the worst thing imaginable, if I understand him correctly he is blaming Blair and Bush for the terrorist attack in Madrid. He is not only doing exactly what the terrorist wanted, he is doing it with a bravado, which will further serve to reinforce the terrorist's belief that this tactic will work in the future. I'd hate to be German or Italian now.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Scary...

                          There are a lot of scary thoughts appearing in this thread. The more I think about what has happened in the five days (only FIVE!) since the Madrid bombing, the more depressed I get. In that time we have seen democracy totally perverted by an extremist minority and AQ has “won”.

                          If the “War on Terror” was a literal battle for possession of the countries of the world, then the terrorists won on Sunday – they gained Spain, or at the very least they knocked it out of the "War". And they did this in only three days – that’s less time than it took the Nazis to conquer France!! That’s some going.

                          And tonight in the UK we’ve had the Mayor of London and the Chief of the Metropolitan Police (basically, the highest ranking Police Officer in the whole country) holding a joint Press Conference telling us it’s inevitable that, despite all our precautions, one of these bastards is bound to get through in the end and we will be attacked.

                          I live in a country that has had to live with terrorism for over 30 years, and I'd like to think that if anyone is prepared for an attack, it would be the UK. For years we have been taught to watch out for suspicious packages or abandoned bags. You can't park a car in London in a sensitive area without it being surrounded by the Police and/or towed away within the hour. Yeah, it’s stupid to park your car in a restricted area at any time in any place, and normally you’d just expect a ticket – but if you aren’t careful in London, your car could be subjected to a controlled explosion (!).

                          A few years ago the IRA were leaving “bicycle bombs” in city centres – basically bike frames stuffed with Semtex that they’d ride up and leave on a timer or remotely detonate them from a distance. Whilst this was going on, I once parked my mountain bike in the town where I lived and came back ten minutes later to see half a dozen people pointing at it excitedly and one of them about to call the Police! I wouldn’t have minded but it was in a place reserved for parking bicycles! I even had an English flag flying from the back! I pointed this out to a bloke who was in the crowd, “But I’ve got an English flag on my bike” I said. He tapped his nose knowingly “Yes mate, and so did the ones with the bombs in them” and he stared at me like I had two heads. What he said was utter rubbish of course, but even so, after that incident whenever I parked I resorted to leaving a notice on the bike with my mobile ‘phone number on it in case anyone got any ideas of blowing the bugger up to see if it was a bomb. My point is that you won’t believe how diligent people can get in this country to the risk of terrorism – sometimes to the point of paranoia.

                          In the UK, we have CCTV everywhere – and I mean EVERYWHERE. We have it on our motorways, in our shopping precincts, car parks, department stores, main thoroughfares, high streets, pubs, restaurants – even the tiniest of Newsagents or petrol stations have cameras in them. Big Brother has nothing on us.

                          But despite all of this, we are still being told that it’s “inevitable” that we will be attacked. Great, that’s a real morale boost for the country isn’t it? Personally speaking, I’m just glad I don’t live or work in London – especially if they are going to spout defeatist talk like that.

                          Will what happened election-wise in Spain happen in the UK? I hope not and I don’t think so – we are a bloody-minded bunch when we want to be. Hitler couldn’t break us and IRA bombings couldn’t either – each time we just became more belligerent and I think, and hope, that it would happen again if AQ attacked us here.

                          The only potential trouble could arise from the fact that the majority of the public in this country think the Government lied to them about the reasons for going to war with Iraq and that might affect voting if a Madrid-style bombing were to happen in the lead-up to our next General Election. However the other side of this coin is that, unlike Spain, even though they aren’t leaning particularly Left these days, we ALREADY have our “Socialist” party in power – we can’t go any more Left than we are already –our political climate can only go to the Right.

                          Dr. S.
                          Imagine a ball of iron, the size of the sun. And once a year a tiny sparrow brushes its surface with the tip of its wing. And when that ball of iron, the size of the sun, is worn away to nothing, your punishment will barely have begun.

                          www.sinisterincorporated.co.uk

                          www.tabletown.co.uk

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The US I don't think will be swayed by bombings. As much as I don't like Bush I think that we should stay in Iraq as long as it takes to do it right. No matter who is elected I would expect no less. Letting your actions be dictated by others losses all the credibility that you have. Spain's people voted for what they thought was right and that is how a democracy works. I think that they were wrong but we all have opinions. I see no reason to attack, verbally, people who chose what they wanted. Remeber the Nazi's got voted in also Democracy is like that. Sometimes people make the decision that is not best for them. In the US we have legislators that are supposed to be looking out for the peole because we, the commoners, can't make the decisions for our selves. It might have backfired but I'm not giving up yet. Change will come and in a democracy that change can be thankfully bloodless.

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                            • #15
                              Allan Topol sounds off

                              I think he got it right. Solid.

                              Allan Topol: A Double Victory for the Terrorists
                              Stay Alert, Stay Alive!

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