Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Declassified NIE on Iran's Nuke Program

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Declassified NIE on Iran's Nuke Program

    Very interesting reading. All sides will be discussing what this means for a long time:

    http://www.odni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

    A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
    We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
    We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
    We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.

    We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.) All agencies recognize the possibility that this capability may not be attained until after 2015.
    Very good stuff. A must read....
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    Originally posted by Combatengineer View Post
    Very interesting reading. All sides will be discussing what this means for a long time:
    My first thought on seeing that headline today was that the Bush administration had decided to declare victory and go home on the Iranian front even before doing so with Iraq.

    After all, the Iranians have been saying consistently that they were not developing nuclear bombs.....I didn't believe them, but maybe it was true.

    I think our administration is shearing off from a war on Iran, publicly. In exchange for some secret diplomatic gains from Iran? So they can declare victory and go home from Iraq? The stand-off with the U.S. Congress on the war funding is still going on, it's a problem needing to be solved, how to get out without admitting a loss.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Phebe View Post
      My first thought on seeing that headline today was that the Bush administration had decided to declare victory and go home on the Iranian front even before doing so with Iraq.

      After all, the Iranians have been saying consistently that they were not developing nuclear bombs.....I didn't believe them, but maybe it was true.

      I think our administration is shearing off from a war on Iran, publicly. In exchange for some secret diplomatic gains from Iran? So they can declare victory and go home from Iraq? The stand-off with the U.S. Congress on the war funding is still going on, it's a problem needing to be solved, how to get out without admitting a loss.
      I believe it was due to the Black Helicopter Brigade from Area 51 deploying the Men In Black.
      "I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
      George Mason
      Co-author of the Second Amendment
      during Virginia’s Convention to Ratify the Constitution, 1788

      Comment


      • #4
        US Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work in 2003

        By Mark Mazzetti
        The New York Times

        Monday 03 December 2007

        Washington - A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

        The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be a major factor in the tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program. Concerns about Iran were raised sharply after President Bush had suggested in October that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to "World War III," and Vice President Dick Cheney promised "serious consequences" if the government in Tehran did not abandon its nuclear program.

        The finding also come in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear program has been discussed. The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran's ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran's "decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs."

        "Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might - if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible - prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program," the estimate states.

        The new report comes out just over five years after a deeply flawed N.I.E. concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart its nuclear program. The report led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, although most of the N.I.E.'s conclusions turned out to be wrong. The estimate does say that Iran's ultimate goal is still to develop the capability to produce a nuclear weapon.

        The national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, quickly issued a statement describing the N.I.E. as containing positive news rather than reflecting intelligence mistakes. "It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons," Mr. Hadley said. "It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen. But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."

        "The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically - without the use of force - as the administration has been trying to do," Mr. Hadley said.

        Last month, Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the international Atomic Energy Agency, had reported that Iran was operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.

        But his report said that I.A.E.A. inspectors in Iran had been unable to determine whether the Iranian program sought only to generate electricity or also to build weapons.

        The N.I.E. concludes that if Iran were to end the freeze of its weapons program, it would still be at least two years before Tehran would have enough highly enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. But it says it is still "very unlikely" Iran could produce enough of the material by then.

        Instead, today's report concludes it is more likely Iran could have a bomb by the early part to the middle of the next decade. The report states that the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this goal before 2013, "because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems."

        The new assessment upends a judgment made about Iran's nuclear capabilities in 2005. At the time, intelligence agencies assessed with "high confidence" that Iran is determined to have nuclear weapons and concluded that Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program.

        Since then, officials said they have obtained new information leading them to conclude that international pressure, including tough economic sanctions, had been successful in bringing about a halt to Iran's secret program.

        "We felt that we needed to scrub all the assessments and sources to make sure we weren't misleading ourselves," said one senior intelligence official during a telephone interview, speaking on condition of anonymity.

        In a separate statement accompanying the N.I.E., Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr said that given the new conclusions, it was important to release the report publicly "to ensure that an accurate presentation is available."

        link

        Comment


        • #5
          The study did conclude that if it wanted to Iran would still be able to develop a nuclear weapon in 3 to 8 years since they are continuing to enrich uraninum. So, the next administration will still have this headache to deal with, that's if Israel doesn't take out a few building sometime and set it back a couple of more years.
          "If you are right, then you are right even if everyone says you are wrong. If you are wrong then you are wrong even if everyone says you are right." William Penn.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by trailboss49 View Post
            The study did conclude that if it wanted to Iran would still be able to develop a nuclear weapon in 3 to 8 years since they are continuing to enrich uraninum. So, the next administration will still have this headache to deal with, that's if Israel doesn't take out a few building sometime and set it back a couple of more years.
            3-8 years is the same estimate given 3 years ago. So it slid sideways with no movement forward for the last three years.....
            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
            “To talk of many things:
            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
            Of cabbages—and kings—
            And why the sea is boiling hot—
            And whether pigs have wings.”
            ― Lewis Carroll

            Comment


            • #7
              Israel aren't going to be taking any military action anyway. I don't know how many times it has to be repeated, but Iran in 2007 is a very, very different beast to Iraq 1981.
              Colonel Summers' widely quoted critique of US strategy in the Vietnam War is having a modest vogue...it is poor history, poor strategy, and poor Clausewitz to boot - Robet Komer, Survival, 27:2, p. 94.

              Comment


              • #8
                ahh. today I wake up with many good news:

                1- iran may not after all look to build nukes
                2- Venezuela is a democracy! - the popular guy was told to turn down his ambitions
                3- so is Russia - the most popular guy won
                4- Huckabee leads that horrible Giuliani
                5- Obama leads that horrible Clinton

                good day this.
                "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

                Comment


                • #9
                  Is this the first sign of a major thaw?

                  The Director of National Intelligence briefs the President daily so it's safe to assume that the Pres has known this was coming for some time. Now we have to wonder exactly what this release is supposed to accomplish. Is it intended to undercut domestic warhawks or is this a reward to Iran for a backroom deal we don't know about yet?

                  Very curious.
                  Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

                  Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by piero1971 View Post
                    ahh. today I wake up with many good news:

                    1- iran may not after all look to build nukes
                    2- Venezuela is a democracy! - the popular guy was told to turn down his ambitions
                    3- so is Russia - the most popular guy won
                    4- Huckabee leads that horrible Giuliani
                    5- Obama leads that horrible Clinton

                    good day this.
                    For the clueless:

                    Europeans Call Russia Vote 'Not Fair' Open this result in new window
                    Washington Post - Dec 03 7:08 AM

                    Observer mission says Russia's election "not fair"
                    Reuters via Yahoo! UK & Ireland News - Dec 03 4:05 AM

                    OSCE: Russia's Parliamentary Election Was "Not Fair"
                    Nasdaq - Dec 03 2:42 AM

                    Russia's election not fair, says OSCE
                    The West Australian - Dec 03 2:25 AM

                    Russia election not fair, say observers
                    Independent - Dec 03 2:29 AM

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by thejester View Post
                      Israel aren't going to be taking any military action anyway. I don't know how many times it has to be repeated, but Iran in 2007 is a very, very different beast to Iraq 1981.

                      Stop bringing up facts like that Iran's nuclear enrichment, how much of it actually exists, is diversified in underground facilities. Or so they say.

                      In any case, we seen time and time again that the whole debate is based on hyperbole and fear of the unknown, not of what is known.

                      And the Israelis have no right to bomb anybody, with their 200 or so nukes. Another factor ignored by the thick and slow "Ahmadinejad wants to nuke Israel" crowd...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        ahmadinnerjacket does not "run" iran, ayatollah khamenei does.

                        The Preemptive Strike Threat

                        A September 24, 2007 article published in Sobh-e Sadeq, the mouthpiece of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), discussed economic and security threats issued by the West, particularly the U.S. The article stressed that following the West's escalation of threats, Iran had upgraded its military strategy to incorporate a doctrine of offense, including "first strike" and "preemptive attack" capabilities. The following are the main points of the article:

                        "... Today, Iran's military strategists proudly announce that the advanced stages of the plans for [meeting] the multilateral defense needs are complete and ready for implementation. One of the most important and influential parts of this comprehensive defense [plan] has already been set out and brought into operation, based on first-strike advantage and preemptive activity. In Iran's defense doctrine, a special place has been allocated to the right of first strike and to a preemptive attack against the enemy, who is in a state of highest alert. This is because the principle of surprising the enemy is one of the best-known, most accepted, and most logical tactics that a country can adopt when facing imminent threats..."
                        Threats Against Israel (same link as above)

                        In a September 30, 2007 interview, former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani told the U.K. daily Financial Times that if the U.S. attacked Iran "it would receive [in return] Israel in a wheelchair." He added that such an attack would be, for the U.S., like "sticking its hand into a wasps' nest." [30]

                        On September 19, 2007, Iranian army air force deputy commander Mohammad Alavi pointed out, "In addition to the fact that all of Israel's territory is within the range of Iran's missiles, Iran can [also] attack Israel with its fighter jets, and can respond to any [Israeli] attack - unlikely though [such an attack] may be. This plan is not an empty threat; we are carrying out all the [necessary] preparations with proper planning and by achieving the necessary readiness. Thus, Israel must put out of its mind any [thought of carrying out] a stupid act of any kind... Israel knows what kind of blow it will receive from Iran's missiles and jets. Obviously, Iran cannot reveal its plans, but Israel must know that, if necessary, such operations will certainly be implemented." [31]

                        In a September 24, 2007 editorial, the daily Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei, stated that in response to a Western attack, Iran would carry out a series of attacks along with "the local fighters in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine," and would "create hell for the American and Israeli soldiers." The following are the main points of the editorial:

                        "[The Americans] know full well that it is America and its army - not Iran - that are being held hostage in the Middle East... America's military bases in the region are all within range of Iran's diverse missiles. Israel - should it make a mistake [and attack Iran] - is likewise within the reach of hundreds of long-range missiles. All these - along with the local fighters in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine - can simultaneously create hell for the American and Israeli soldiers...

                        "The American forces in the region are like a person trapped in the middle of a minefield with many IEDs around his feet. In such a situation, a single mistake - [even] the smallest one - will trigger not only one blow, but a chain of attacks and explosions.

                        "The Iranian response will not be blow for blow. The era of hit-and-run attacks is over... Obviously, the Iranian nation does not rush into battle - but the moment the arena of jihad opens... [the Iranian nation] will embrace it, and will not flee from it. The Iranian nation sees jihad as one of the gates of Paradise..."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by GCoyote View Post
                          The Director of National Intelligence briefs the President daily so it's safe to assume that the Pres has known this was coming for some time. Now we have to wonder exactly what this release is supposed to accomplish. Is it intended to undercut domestic warhawks or is this a reward to Iran for a backroom deal we don't know about yet?
                          The press is playing it today as a CIA stab in the back to George Bush. Certainly the CIA has been Bush's enemy since he blamed them for his WMD fiasco. People are also saying Bush knew about this NIE months ago but kept up the saber-rattling pressure to go to war.......

                          It's more of the meltdown, I guess.

                          It's not a good idea to make an enemy of the CIA.......

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Phebe View Post
                            The press is playing it today as a CIA stab in the back to George Bush. Certainly the CIA has been Bush's enemy since he blamed them for his WMD fiasco. People are also saying Bush knew about this NIE months ago but kept up the saber-rattling pressure to go to war.......

                            It's more of the meltdown, I guess.

                            It's not a good idea to make an enemy of the CIA.......
                            Linky for context please.
                            "I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
                            George Mason
                            Co-author of the Second Amendment
                            during Virginia’s Convention to Ratify the Constitution, 1788

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by OmegaStrike View Post
                              ahmadinnerjacket does not "run" iran, ayatollah khamenei does.

                              The Preemptive Strike Threat



                              Threats Against Israel (same link as above)

                              What was the headline? "Iranian sabre-rattling shocker!"
                              This is hardly a departure from their usual self-effacing modesty.
                              The phrase "**** and wind" springs to mind
                              "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                              validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                              "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X