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Osama in Iran After All?

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  • Osama in Iran After All?

    Fox News' Linda Vester just interviewed one of Fox's Middle Eastern analysts (name too weird to remember) who promises to break out a couple of major stories in 2 weeks or so.

    First of all, he says Bind Laden is definitely hiding in Iran.

    Second, he says the whole Iraqi uprising is being run by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. That's the same badies who were responsible for the Iranian embassy hostage crisis among other things.

    Let's wait and see.

    "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
    --Frederick II, King of Prussia

  • #2
    Fox News?

    Iran is involved in resistance. However, they are not the sole element running this operation. The only real similarity we see in attacks is the target. The motives, and factions responsible are not linked. This is a very complicated problem. American and Coalition troops are being targeted because not only because there is anomosity toward occupation. There are also criminal elements, minority factions, and a host of other individuals and groups who attacking "authority." The attacks on US troops pale in comparison to those committed against Iraqi citizens. The patterns of violence are similar to those seen in the former-Soviet Union after the collapse of communism. You can also find similarities in what we are seeing in Iraq in places like Mexico, and Colombia.

    People who think removing American troops will end the violence is sadly mistaken. When US and Coalition troops were not present, chaos was the order of the day. In Mosul, there were clashes along ethnic lines. Looting throughout the country was rather widespread. Today, even in those areas controlled by Islamic fundamentalists, crime is rampid.

    Iran is involved. In the end though, anyone who believes Iraq will be stable if we pull out is in for a big surprise. Iran will likely find more favor, but would not be immune to the chaos, which could consume them, and neighboring countries.

    As for Bin Laden hiding out in Iran, I would not be surprised. However, I caution people on this point. I don't believe the Iranian government is providing him with shelter. Teheran's control over it's country has been declining in recent years. There are stories of police in the capitol city being ignored by young students who are more Westernized. Islamic fundamentalists are also loosing faith in the Iranian government. As a result, clerics might control regions with no support of the government. Even if Iran ordered Bin Laden out, they would probably risk a serious conflict by enforcing the mandate in some areas.

    So if he is in Iran, there is not a whole lot we can do about it beyond quiet soft/hard diplomacy, which includes SOF raids. (Although I doubt they would be successful given our poor intelligence network in the area.)
    "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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    • #3
      So Afghanistan got to hot for him?

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