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  • #16
    Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

    Whose fault should it be that he called the virus a hoax and thus delayed our response?
    Maybe the limited and constrained information, along with mis-information coming out of PR China and WHO ?
    Would play a significant role in the confusion and mis-direction early on.
    TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
    “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz

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    • #17



      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-..._United_States
      TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
      “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz

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      • #18
        Originally posted by G David Bock View Post

        Maybe the limited and constrained information, along with mis-information coming out of PR China and WHO ?
        Would play a significant role in the confusion and mis-direction early on.
        Only two countries did not followed WHO advice : Sweden and USA. Both had/have higher than average death toll compared to others Western countries. Morevover US CDC as well Fauci gave same warning than WHO. Trump administration choose to ignore them and no one forced this administration to do so. Arguing now about misinformation about ignored warning simply does not make sense...

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Metryll View Post

          Only two countries did not followed WHO advice : Sweden and USA. Both had/have higher than average death toll compared to others Western countries. Morevover US CDC as well Fauci gave same warning than WHO. Trump administration choose to ignore them and no one forced this administration to do so. Arguing now about misinformation about ignored warning simply does not make sense...
          Which version of WHO advice?

          There were several based entirely on what the Chinese wanted them to say.

          The trump administration did not have authority to lockdown the states. He did have authority to ban travel from china and was attacked for it.
          You know, by the WHO.

          World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade” in trying to halt the spread of a coronavirus that has killed 361 people in China.
          Referring to the virus’ spread abroad, he said it was “minimal and slow”, while warning that it could worsen.
          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZX1H3


          The point is
          1) The WHO lied to us. And condemned efforts to address the virus.
          2) Trump had no legal authority to implement lockdowns at state level.


          Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

          Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post

            Which version of WHO advice?

            There were several based entirely on what the Chinese wanted them to say.

            The trump administration did not have authority to lockdown the states. He did have authority to ban travel from china and was attacked for it.
            You know, by the WHO.

            World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade” in trying to halt the spread of a coronavirus that has killed 361 people in China.
            Referring to the virus’ spread abroad, he said it was “minimal and slow”, while warning that it could worsen.
            https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZX1H3


            The point is
            1) The WHO lied to us. And condemned efforts to address the virus.
            2) Trump had no legal authority to implement lockdowns at state level.

            EXACTLY

            And many in our nation, and on this board, were also "enraged" at first when Trump did start to ban travel in and out of the USA from other nations, beside China.

            China is still lying about the scope of (another) disease coming from it's nation upon the world and the figures of cases and death due to coronavirus happening in China seem rather small in comparison to it's rather densely packed population and it being the place of origin.

            On a global scale, the time and place to contain COVID was before the travel into and out of China to celebrate the Asian New Year. Horse was already out of the barn so to speak once those travelers began to return to their home nations.

            As usual, once enough state governments realized this might not be "just another flu" the response, in current hindsight, was a bit late and given economic and business damage, possibly too heavy handed.

            Probability is that more of those age 55 and under will be adversely affected by businesses closed and jobs lost than would have been by the coronavirus. (see chart in above post)
            TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
            “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz

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            • #21
              Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

              That shouldn't be considered a study though, as they didn't study anything. They're only offering a projection based on a flawed computer model. It's flawed because it doesn't take into account how ineffective the virus is in sunlight..
              I want to add something about the way computer simulations are designed to show that it is not even necessary to simulate the virus at the microlevel and how it behaves in sunlight.

              Everything I will write here should not be considered an expert's opinion since I just had a brief familiarization with computer science in the 1990s as an undergraduate student. So, if younger and educated kids want to step in and bring more updated data, it would be welcomed:

              Since this is a military forum, I will use military simulation to describe the concept of "granularity" which is the level of detail that a program uses to simulate an event. So, when one wants to design a simulation about tank battles, he can use completely different philosophies in his design:

              For example, a programmer may choose to break down the process in a very detailed manner and simulate the actual physics of penetrating armor by simulating variables like kinetic energy, armor thickness, hardness, etc.

              Alternatively, a programmer may choose to go with lower granularity and avoid simulating the dozens of different issues that are involved in an armor penetration. For example, he may have a simulation which take in consideration some historical data of armor casualties vs type of tank and range and create a matrix ((a form of a chart used in math) of armor penetration probabilities. In such way the program can calculate losses for the players as they move around their units and shoot at each other from different ranges.

              In a similar way, somebody can also use different ways to simulate a virus spread without even taking in consideration things details like how the behaves in sunshine. Of course, such approach will still require a bank of historical data related to the effects of the virus in environments with conditions that approach those that exist during a demonstration.

              In short, without good background in computer science and details about how this simulation was designed one cannot make claims about the failures of th model to take into account different details that affect infection rates and deaths.
              Last edited by pamak; 12 Jul 20, 16:23.
              My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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              • #22
                In other news New York City recorded zero Covid deaths today for the first time since 1tth March. Though back dating in the next few days will change this. There are parts of the US that are improving.
                Last edited by Surrey; 12 Jul 20, 16:29.
                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                  In other news New York City recorded zero Covid deaths today for the first time since 1tth March. Though back dating in the next few days could change this. There are parts of the US that are improving.
                  As long as interstate movement is unrestricted , tourist attractions (or vacation houses) in hotspots can affect even remote places which are improving.

                  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...oss-u-n1233579

                  .Disney World reopens even as coronavirus cases soar in Florida and across U.S


                  As long as there are problems in some states, it will be very irresponsible for any state government to feel safe or develop the sense that it is out of the woods even if its number of deaths go down.

                  And even if there is not a hotspot in a resort's area, the gathering of demographics from all corners of the US (including from hotspots) can create new hotspots...
                  My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by pamak View Post

                    As long as interstate movement is unlimited, tourist attractions in hotspots can affect even remote places which are improving.

                    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...oss-u-n1233579

                    .Disney World reopens even as coronavirus cases soar in Florida and across U.S


                    As long as there are problems in some states, it will be very irresponsible for any state government to feel safe or develop the sense that it is out of the woods even if its number of deaths go down.
                    It looks like New York has pretty much achieved Herd Immunity. Most people who were going to get it have had it. Essentially that is the only way this virus is going to be dealt with in the long term. Lock downs were only ever going to be able to 'smooth the curve' and prevent health systems being overwhelmed. A high proportion of those who are vulnerable are going to have to get the virus eventually.
                    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                      It looks like New York has pretty much achieved Herd Immunity. Most people who were going to get it have had it. Essentially that is the only way this virus is going to be dealt with in the long term. Lock downs were only ever going to be able to 'smooth the curve' and prevent health systems being overwhelmed. A high proportion of those who are vulnerable are going to have to get the virus eventually.
                      I have not seen any data about it. Herd immunity means something like over 75% of the population has been infected at some point (and has developed immunity). And the result I have seen from anti-body studies do not show anything close to that rate...
                      My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by pamak View Post

                        I have not seen any data about it. Herd immunity means something like over 75% of the population has been infected at some point (and has developed immunity). And the result I have seen from anti-body studies do not show anything close to that rate...
                        There is a lot of recent evidence coming out that you need a lot less than that due to T cell immunity.



                        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by G David Bock View Post

                          Here in the Pacific NorthWest (PNW) there's a reason some of us 'joke' about being web-footed. That old song may have claimed "the bluest skies you ever saw are in Seattle", but half the time those skies are gray and dropping "liquid sunshine". Which happened often during the time of CHAZ/CHOP.

                          Last I'd heard, there was no "census" of whom was inside of the "protests" and those whom were, aren't co-operating much in admitting to being there. Makes it a bit difficult to trace cases and the event relationship. We've a case of "lack of evidence isn't evidence of lack".
                          You're assuming guilt based on what? The virus can't survive in the sun, so there's no reason to believe the spike is from protests.
                          "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                          - Benjamin Franklin

                          The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by G David Bock View Post

                            Maybe the limited and constrained information, along with mis-information coming out of PR China and WHO ?
                            Would play a significant role in the confusion and mis-direction early on.
                            You're trying to re-write history. From the start they said it was a deadly virus, Trump's response was that it was a hoax. From the start they told us to wear masks, Trump admin said we shouldn't. We didn't listen. Other countries locked down before us, other countries closed their borders before us, because they listened. Stop making excuses.
                            "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              And speaking about herd immunity, I am afraid that with all this stupidity that floats around with the uneducated and scientific illiterate crowd, it may not be achieved even after the development of a vaccine. Fauci said something the other day that caught my attention. he said that he would be willing to settle for a vaccine of 75% effectiveness.

                              Now, consider the fact that we have this accelerated timescale to develop a vaccine (which is fine). Still, rapid development and production can easily lead to accepting a vaccine with les than average effectiveness. So, a 75% effectiveness means that only 75% of the people who will be vaccinated will actually become immune to the virus.

                              This would be fine too if ALL people are willing to be vaccinated. But when you have the anti-vaccers, the cultural warriors who have no clue of medicine and the conspiracy theorists who believe that the federal government (always associated with the deep state controlled by Democrats) and Bill Gates want to control them, the 75% of vaccine success rate will not translate to 75% immunity rate within the population. The achieved immunity rate will be much lower based on the percentage of people who will choose to remain unvaccinated. Of course, we (hopefully) already have a percentage of population which is already immune. So, let's hope that this can be enough to counter the anti-vaccers.
                              Last edited by pamak; 12 Jul 20, 17:10.
                              My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                                There is a lot of recent evidence coming out that you need a lot less than that due to T cell immunity.


                                What I have seen is that not even Sweden has developed herd immunity...

                                So, I am interested to see your sources

                                https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-total-mistake

                                June 26, 2020

                                Days before the WHO issued its warning, Sweden reported 1,699 new coronavirus cases — its biggest spike yet, according to data from the Swedish
                                Ministry of Health and Social Affairs. So far this month, Sweden has set a new record for daily case numbers every week.

                                ...


                                Swedish officials had said earlier this year that the city of Stockholm was on course to reach "herd immunity". A target date was set for the end of May, though last month officials acknowledged that the goal would not be met.
                                Last edited by pamak; 12 Jul 20, 17:08.
                                My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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