Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

An Increase in Coronavirus Deaths

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • An Increase in Coronavirus Deaths

    The expected increase in virus deaths is coming...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...?ocid=msedgntp

    A long-expected upturn in U.S. coronavirus deaths has begun, driven by fatalities in states in the South and West, according to data on the pandemic.

    The number of deaths per day from the virus had been falling for months, and even remained down as states like Florida and Texas saw explosions in cases and hospitalizations — and reported daily U.S. infections broke records several times in recent days.

    Scientists warned it wouldn't last. A coronavirus death, when it occurs, typically comes several weeks after a person is first infected. And experts predicted states that saw increases in cases and hospitalizations would, at some point, see deaths rise too. Now that's happening.
    We are not now that strength which in old days
    Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
    Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
    To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

  • #2
    Slight uptick at this time. Will need to wait and see if it's a glitch or a trend ...



    Another interesting graph;



    More data;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-..._United_States
    TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
      Slight uptick at this time. Will need to wait and see if it's a glitch or a trend ...



      Another interesting graph;



      More data;
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-..._United_States
      I have noticed the “uptick” has taken place about 1-2 incubation periods after the medically endorsed Floyd riots.
      I have also noticed that the news reports are indicating the young are now getting it in greater numbers. You know, the people who were most likely to attend the riots despite the risk.

      But I’m sure its trump’s fault. There is no other possible conclusion.
      Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

      Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post

        I have noticed the “uptick” has taken place about 1-2 incubation periods after the medically endorsed Floyd riots.
        I have also noticed that the news reports are indicating the young are now getting it in greater numbers. You know, the people who were most likely to attend the riots despite the risk.

        But I’m sure its trump’s fault. There is no other possible conclusion.
        While, there is no doubt that the demonstrations have contributed to the increase (future studies will perhaps determine the extend), from the moment the US society showed an inability to follow uniform strict guidelines to suppress the level of the virus nationally and bring it to the low levels that the experts had calculated as conditions for reopening the economy with relative lower risk , a spike would be inevitable.

        Apparently, the temperature did not prove to be such an inhibiting factor.

        With or without the Floyd demonstrations as states chose to reopen too quickly before even satisfying the conditions that the CDC had set as recommendations for reopening the economies, they took a gamble and did not pay off. And since .young people work too, it does not make a difference for the virus if the setting is a demonstration or the working environment.

        Trump's leadership has certainly contributed to this fiasco after he managed to make the pandemic issue one of a cultural war in which we saw the pathetic performance of the CIC trolling people who wore masks! I said it months ago, that undermining the federal message of taking measures to suppress the virus spread also undermines the needed cooperation of citizens to follow the federal recommendations.

        Now the issue is how fast we can get this back under control... We do have more experience to deal with it. We have a better understanding of which people and which places are more at risk (absent a very different virus mutation), and we have more testing, more equipment and better knowledge regarding which available medicine works best. Still, there will be additional damage (deaths) which we could have easily avoid under better leadership (and I include leadership at state levels too).
        Last edited by pamak; 11 Jul 20, 17:48.
        My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

        Comment


        • #5
          Since the statistics people cite are often about a rolling 7-day average, I would be surprised if the surge does not last at least a week. As the calculation of the rolling 7-day average requires the substitution of an 8-day old value of number of deaths with a new (and higher number) of deaths , the total sum of deaths for the most recent 7-day period will continue to increase, and thus the average value for the same period will also continue to increase. The upwards trend should last at least a week.
          My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
            Slight uptick at this time. Will need to wait and see if it's a glitch or a trend ...



            Another interesting graph;



            More data;
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-..._United_States

            Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
            Top doctor explains why COVID reporting is not honest, reveals what the case spike is really about
            '... the death rates are not going up'

            EXCERPTS:
            ...
            Dr. Scott Atlas, the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center, explained Monday why the spike of coronavirus cases across the Sun Belt doesn't tell the full story.

            According to Dr. Atlas, who was interviewed on Fox News' "The Story," Americans should be cautious of the media's reporting on the apparent COVID-19 spike because it "doesn't really matter how many cases" there are — what is important is "who gets the cases."

            That is because, as Dr. Atlas explained, the COVID-19 mortality rate is just .04% for people under age 70 — which is equal to or lower than the seasonal flu — and the case spike is being driven by younger people contracting the virus on a larger scale.

            "The overwhelming majority are younger, healthier people," Dr. Atlas said.

            "It only matters if we cannot protect the high-risk people, which we are protecting ... how do I know? Because the death rates are not going up."
            ...
            Later, Dr. Atlas called out how the media is reporting on hospitalizations and the fact that COVID-19 hospitalization data does not distinguish between COVID-positive patients who are hospitalized for reasons unrelated to the virus and patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-related complications.

            "When I looked at every single hospital area in Texas today, 15-20% of people in the hospital as inpatients are COVID-positive patients. That means 80-85% have nothing to do with COVID-19. And the same thing goes with some of these other states. There are people hospitalized, a large number, because they are tested as COVID-positive, somehow they are categorized as COVID hospitalizations," Dr. Atlas explained. "That's a problem."
            ...
            https://www.theblaze.com/news/doctor...reaking%20News

            OR

            https://video.foxnews.com/v/6169738032001#sp=show-clips

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post



              But I’m sure its trump’s fault.
              Isn't everything.

              Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by pamak View Post

                While, there is no doubt that the demonstrations have contributed to the increase
                Actually there's no evidence of that. Studies show the virus thrives indoors but cannot survive in direct sunlight, so the safest place to be is outside. This is why you hear numerous stories of 10+ people being infected who went to the same bar, party, church etc, all indoors.

                We've yet to hear any reports of mass infections being traced back to protests.

                “What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus,” Dabisch explained. “And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight.
                https://www.kxan.com/news/local/stud...rect-sunlight/

                Also, https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/2/214/5841129

                "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                - Benjamin Franklin

                The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Trung Si View Post
                  Isn't everything.
                  Whose fault should it be that he called the virus a hoax and thus delayed our response?
                  "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                  - Benjamin Franklin

                  The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

                    Actually there's no evidence of that. Studies show the virus thrives indoors but cannot survive in direct sunlight, so the safest place to be is outside. This is why you hear numerous stories of 10+ people being infected who went to the same bar, party, church etc, all indoors.

                    We've yet to hear any reports of mass infections being traced back to protests.



                    https://www.kxan.com/news/local/stud...rect-sunlight/

                    Also, https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/2/214/5841129
                    Actually, there is evidence,(higher infection rates and clear evidence that the virus can be transmitted outdoors) and even experts were giving warnings about the dangers of mass demonstrations.

                    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/cdc-...outbreaks.html

                    CDC warns George Floyd protests may be ‘seeding event’ for more coronavirus outbreaks

                    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/...yd-protesters/

                    The protests prompted by the death of George Floyd could spark between 50 and 500 coronavirus deaths across the United States for each day of mass gatherings, according to a new analysis by a Seattle scientist, the first major attempt to quantify the viral danger of dissent.

                    The fact that indoor environments are worse does not mean that there are no consequences when people ass outdoors under direct sunlight.

                    Of course, the issue of quantifying the effects will be open for debate and farther studies. From the same link:

                    The precise tally may never been known because the rest of America is also gathering in ever-greater numbers, from book clubs and hair salons to restaurants and Las Vegas casinos. That also could fuel more infections
                    My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by pamak View Post

                      Actually, there is evidence,(higher infection rates and clear evidence that the virus can be transmitted outdoors) and even experts were giving warnings about the dangers of mass demonstrations.

                      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/cdc-...outbreaks.html

                      CDC warns George Floyd protests may be ‘seeding event’ for more coronavirus outbreaks

                      https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/...yd-protesters/

                      The protests prompted by the death of George Floyd could spark between 50 and 500 coronavirus deaths across the United States for each day of mass gatherings, according to a new analysis by a Seattle scientist, the first major attempt to quantify the viral danger of dissent.

                      The fact that indoor environments are worse does not mean that there are no consequences when people ass outdoors under direct sunlight.

                      Of course, the issue of quantifying the effects will be open for debate and farther studies. From the same link:

                      The precise tally may never been known because the rest of America is also gathering in ever-greater numbers, from book clubs and hair salons to restaurants and Las Vegas casinos. That also could fuel more infections
                      Infections went up in Arizona, it's one of the hot spots now. How many BLM protests were there in Arizona? Just because infections went up doesn't mean they were a direct result of the protests, you have no evidence of that. In the title of your article it says, "may be". Conclusive studies refute the CDC's guess at that time.
                      "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                      - Benjamin Franklin

                      The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

                        Infections went up in Arizona, it's one of the hot spots now. How many BLM protests were there in Arizona? Just because infections went up doesn't mean they were a direct result of the protests, you have no evidence of that. In the title of your article it says, "may be". Conclusive studies refute the CDC's guess at that time.
                        It is true that just because infections go up in an area, it does not mean they are direct result of the protests, but this also does not mean that such observation is not evidence (not proof) of a possible direct link between the protests and the increase in infections. In addition, it is a matter of probability and the current knowledge we have about how the virus spreads that any increase of interactions among people will also result in more infections. The key is to make sure that you quickly detect and isolate the new cases so that the spike will be relatively short and things will remain under control.

                        Notice that while it is difficult to quantify the connection between demonstrations and CV deaths (the study gives a very wide range between 50 and 500 additional deaths per day), it is quite trivial to claim that for sure (as sure as one can be in statistics) the effect of demonstrations will not be zero additional deaths. So, some direct impact is almost certain. Without having the actual study in front of me, I bet that this wide range of 50-500 deaths has a very high confidence interval (usual value is 95%) . So, it is almost sure that the actual impact will be somewhere within that range and we can say with even higher confidence that approaches 100% that it will above zero.
                        Last edited by pamak; 12 Jul 20, 01:42.
                        My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

                          Actually there's no evidence of that. Studies show the virus thrives indoors but cannot survive in direct sunlight, so the safest place to be is outside. This is why you hear numerous stories of 10+ people being infected who went to the same bar, party, church etc, all indoors.

                          We've yet to hear any reports of mass infections being traced back to protests.



                          https://www.kxan.com/news/local/stud...rect-sunlight/

                          Also, https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/2/214/5841129
                          Here in the Pacific NorthWest (PNW) there's a reason some of us 'joke' about being web-footed. That old song may have claimed "the bluest skies you ever saw are in Seattle", but half the time those skies are gray and dropping "liquid sunshine". Which happened often during the time of CHAZ/CHOP.

                          Last I'd heard, there was no "census" of whom was inside of the "protests" and those whom were, aren't co-operating much in admitting to being there. Makes it a bit difficult to trace cases and the event relationship. We've a case of "lack of evidence isn't evidence of lack".
                          Last edited by G David Bock; 12 Jul 20, 15:11.
                          TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by pamak View Post

                            Notice that while it is difficult to quantify the connection between demonstrations and CV deaths (the study gives a very wide range between 50 and 500 additional deaths per day), it is quite trivial to claim that for sure (as sure as one can be in statistics) the effect of demonstrations will not be zero additional deaths. So, some direct impact is almost certain. Without having the actual study in front of me, I bet that this wide range of 50-500 deaths has a very high confidence interval (usual value is 95%) . So, it is almost sure that the actual impact will be somewhere within that range and we can say with even higher confidence that approaches 100% that it will above zero.
                            That shouldn't be considered a study though, as they didn't study anything. They're only offering a projection based on a flawed computer model. It's flawed because it doesn't take into account how ineffective the virus is in sunlight. For an accurate number that would have to be taken into consideration. That's not to imply the true number is 0, but it does prove their projection to be based on bad science and thus wrong. Whatever the actual number is, it's still safer to be outdoors than indoors. Yet, where are millions of Americans going? The number of people at protests pales in comparisons to the millions visiting various indoor establishments. So the science and the numbers don't point to protests being the cause of the spike. If it were protests, we would have seen a spike when anti-shutdown people were out protesting, yet we didn't because the country was still under lockdown and not yet returned to indoor establishments. There's your main culprit.
                            "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post

                              That shouldn't be considered a study though, as they didn't study anything. They're only offering a projection based on a flawed computer model. It's flawed because it doesn't take into account how ineffective the virus is in sunlight. For an accurate number that would have to be taken into consideration. That's not to imply the true number is 0, but it does prove their projection to be based on bad science and thus wrong. Whatever the actual number is, it's still safer to be outdoors than indoors. Yet, where are millions of Americans going? The number of people at protests pales in comparisons to the millions visiting various indoor establishments. So the science and the numbers don't point to protests being the cause of the spike. If it were protests, we would have seen a spike when anti-shutdown people were out protesting, yet we didn't because the country was still under lockdown and not yet returned to indoor establishments. There's your main culprit.
                              Did you examine the computer model and the different variables they used?

                              According to the article, the model does not talk about "spikes". It talks about "additional deaths" which can come even without spikes in the form of a lower rate of decreasing deaths. Most probably anti-shutdown protests also contributed to additional deaths but again it is difficult to quantify the result. A say 100 additional deaths nation-wide means a couple of extra deaths in each state which is hardly noticeable . Also, I do not think that the magnitude of the anti-shutdown demonstrations approached the level of the Floyd demonstrations.
                              Last edited by pamak; 12 Jul 20, 15:21.
                              My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X