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  • After shorter lockdowns US has higher unemployment than the EU

    Yesterday we had the results off thee US unemployment which were above 11%

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/june-jo...20-11593651420

    U.S. Unemployment Rate Fell to 11.1% in June

    Meanwhile, EU has quite lower unemployment despite the fact that the lockdowns there were longer

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docume...6-cb322cbdc5ac

    May 2020 Euro area unemployment at 7.4% EU at 6.7%

    Even countries that were hit hard like France have a lower unemployment rate than the US

    Belgium shows a rate of 5.4%
    France...........................8.1%
    Italy.................................7.8%

    p.s US unemployment data are also seasonally adjusted as one can see from the bls (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm)


    ​​​​​​​
    My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

  • #2
    A lot of small businesses failed due to the lockdown. That might account for some of it. Riots and civil disruptions haven't helped our economy, either.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      A lot of small businesses failed due to the lockdown. That might account for some of it. Riots and civil disruptions haven't helped our economy, either.
      Is there some reason more companies in USA would fail than in Europe?

      I'm thinking it's probably just regulations and laws. Easier to fire people in USA, whereas in Europe people would just get laid off (and hence, not counted as "true" unemployed). There seems to be a big difference in the system in that sense, and clearly it's a vulnerability for workers in USA. The recovery in USA might be faster as well, who knows.
      Wisdom is personal

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by pamak View Post
        Yesterday we had the results off thee US unemployment which were above 11%
        No kidding, this is a federal republic. The governors have the authority to control thier states, not Trump.
        "I don't discuss sitting presidents," Mattis tells NPR in an interview. "I believe that you owe a period of quiet."

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Karri View Post

          Is there some reason more companies in USA would fail than in Europe?

          I'm thinking it's probably just regulations and laws. Easier to fire people in USA, whereas in Europe people would just get laid off (and hence, not counted as "true" unemployed). There seems to be a big difference in the system in that sense, and clearly it's a vulnerability for workers in USA. The recovery in USA might be faster as well, who knows.
          Indeed, and it may be too soon to make any judgments regarding the longer-term economic effects of COVID on various economies. The 8.1% unemployment rate currently registered in France makes it seem the country has weathered this crisis fairly well. Going beyond this mere statistic discloses a somewhat different story.

          Available data suggests the economy is shrinking at a faster rate in the second quarter, on the heels of the steepest contraction on record in the first quarter. Domestic demand is being ravaged by Covid-19: Rising unemployment, social distancing measures and business closures are all hammering consumption and investment, as signaled by marked deteriorations in survey-based indicators in April–May. With the flight and motor industries being particularly hard hit by the crisis, in the past few weeks the government moved to support large French companies by providing a EUR 7.0 billion loan to air carrier France–KLM and a EUR 5.0 billion loan to car producer Renault. Amid a deteriorating fiscal backdrop and shrinking economic activity, on 15 May Fitch Ratings revised France’s outlook to negative, maintaining an AA rating. Meanwhile, in politics, President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority on 19 May, thus hindering the approval of his controversial pension reform.
          https://www.focus-economics.com/coun...e/unemployment

          As pointed out, it is more difficult to fire people in most of Europe, and there are generally more generous support packages and subsidised employment schemes. The problem is that these cannot be maintained over the long-term in Europe, due to the EUs requirement that national budgets not have a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP and that accumulated public debt not exceed 60% of GDP. With steep declines in GDP registered in most of the Western European countries, it is hard to imagine a scenario where government subsidised support for maintaining employment can be continued without invoking EU sanctions. So, barring passage of the EU recovery plan which involves borrowing hundreds of billions of euros on the open market, the US may be in a stronger long-term position due to its more flexible employment practices (i.e. turfing people onto the street) and its unlimited borrowing capacity.
          Last edited by Skoblin; 04 Jul 20, 11:35.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by pamak View Post
            Yesterday we had the results off thee US unemployment which were above 11%

            Meanwhile, EU has quite lower unemployment despite the fact that the lockdowns there were longer

            Even countries that were hit hard like France have a lower unemployment rate than the US

            Belgium shows a rate of 5.4%
            France...........................8.1%
            Italy.................................7.8%

            p.s US unemployment data are also seasonally adjusted as one can see from the bls (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm)
            Regarding unemployment categorisation in Europe
            Mr X was employed as a technician in the manufacturing sector until March but did not work in April and May due to the lockdown. His employment contract has not been broken and he has been assured by his employer he could return to work within 3 months. Mr X therefore keeps an attachment to his job in the LFS meaning and is thus not recorded as unemployed.

            Mrs Z was unemployed, actively looking for a job until the COVID outbreak. She then interrupted her job searches in order to take care of her children until school resumes and the situation improves in the labour market. Mrs Z will be counted as inactive and not as unemployed in May.
            https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docume...6-cb322cbdc5ac

            Needless to say, these two examples do not exhaust European categorisation of what officially constitutes an unemployed person for nationally tabulated unemployment figures. And without taking into consideration these national peculiarities in determining unemployment figures, simply comparing national rates at face value is not very instructive.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Karri View Post

              Is there some reason more companies in USA would fail than in Europe?
              I can only speak for how germany is managing unemployment during lockdown and now in the aftermath. We have something called short-time work. So you stay employed, you work less and you earn less. Additionally, the government compensates for about 60% of the wages of companies who are in this program. The support is time limited, so the government isnt substituting bad companies. I think the time limit is till the end of the year. Since wages for normal jobs pay good enough to make a living, most of the people i know simply enjoy their free time. Many are not working short-time at all though. I think this instrument created 2009 works pretty well especially for a crisis like corona. A lot of social stress is relieved by giving people free time but keeping them employed while at the same time helping companies to run their business with some kind of security.

              11.000.000 jobs have been supported. Unemployment rate is at 6,2% thats 1%+ compared to pre corona.

              Actually its quite possible that the unemployment rate in the US is quite bigger, check "employed and absent from work due to other reasons" statistics.

              Comment


              • #8
                Not sure what they've done in the EU, but the US federal government incentivized unemployment. People are making more money being unemployed than they did when they were working. So more money, plus safer staying home, of course unemployment is still high. Let's see what happens at the end of July once stimulus payments stop.
                "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                - Benjamin Franklin

                The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Salinator
                  Hold on. We in the Bay Area has been locked down since March 16 2020, and our full reopening has been pushed back for another 30 days beyond July 13 2020, the original Phase 3 opening date. What European country had that long of a lockdown?
                  Sal, what does 'lockdown' mean there in the Bay area specifically? Are all commercial establishments closed? As for Hungary, lockdown began around March 29. Most restrictions were lifted outside Budapest during the first week of May, and lifted in Budapest in late May. So, the lockdown in Hungary lasted about 5-7 weeks.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Skoblin View Post

                    Indeed, and it may be too soon to make any judgments regarding the longer-term economic effects of COVID on various economies. The 8.1% unemployment rate currently registered in France makes it seem the country has weathered this crisis fairly well. Going beyond this mere statistic discloses a somewhat different story.

                    https://www.focus-economics.com/coun...e/unemployment

                    As pointed out, it is more difficult to fire people in most of Europe, and there are generally more generous support packages and subsidised employment schemes. The problem is that these cannot be maintained over the long-term in Europe, due to the EUs requirement that national budgets not have a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP and that accumulated public debt not exceed 60% of GDP. With steep declines in GDP registered in most of the Western European countries, it is hard to imagine a scenario where government subsidised support for maintaining employment can be continued without invoking EU sanctions. So, barring passage of the EU recovery plan which involves borrowing hundreds of billions of euros on the open market, the US may be in a stronger long-term position due to its more flexible employment practices (i.e. turfing people onto the street) and its unlimited borrowing capacity.
                    Hi Skob

                    I agree that its far to early to make definitive judgements about complex evolving situations.

                    At its height in the UK there were more than 9miliion staff registered on the Government Furlough scheme, where the Govt paid 80% of the staff wages and the other 20% was either picked up by the employer or not.
                    Now many companies have used that to stave off letting staff go, so UK unemployment is artificially low. However, the number of redundancies and companies going under is rising as the scheme payments change or the new normal means companies are no longer viable.
                    Some companies will also use Covid as a convenient tool to bring about restructuring which otherwise would have caused ire with the Unions.

                    The UK had a low Unemployment rate of 3.8% in April with a rise to 5% by this months end predicted and a projected rate of +7% come the end of October (which is when the current Furlough scheme ends).

                    Regards

                    Andy H
                    "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." Churchill

                    "I'm no reactionary.Christ on the Mountain! I'm as idealistic as Hell" Eisenhower

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hold on. Lockdown here is dictated by States and Counties. We in the Bay Area has been locked down since March 16 2020, and our full reopening has been pushed back for another 30 days beyond July 13 2020, the original Phase 3 opening date, and may cancel the recent Phase 2.5 and go back into Phase 2 status. What European country had that long of a lockdown?
                      Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

                      Prayers.

                      BoRG

                      http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Salinator
                        Hold on. We in the Bay Area has been locked down since March 16 2020, and our full reopening has been pushed back for another 30 days beyond July 13 2020, the original Phase 3 opening date. What European country had that long of a lockdown?
                        So what does lockdown mean in the bay area?

                        I think it helped, that leadership was coordinating appropriate response on a EU wide level. More European countries took covid seriously than states in the US though. Having a scientist in Merkel did help too.

                        As long as this crisis isnt approached on a federal level in the US with all the understanding necessary, covid will drag on infinitly.

                        As it looks right now it will take 100k more dead americans until a Biden government steps in to stop the chaos in november. It wont just go away miraculously.

                        Its painful to watch to be honest, knowing that this catastrophy cost way too many lifes already.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Judith View Post

                          So what does lockdown mean in the bay area?

                          I think it helped, that leadership was coordinating appropriate response on a EU wide level. More European countries took covid seriously than states in the US though. Having a scientist in Merkel did help too.

                          As long as this crisis isnt approached on a federal level in the US with all the understanding necessary, covid will drag on infinitly.

                          As it looks right now it will take 100k more dead americans until a Biden government steps in to stop the chaos in november. It wont just go away miraculously.

                          Its painful to watch to be honest, knowing that this catastrophy cost way too many lifes already.
                          Our problems have nothing to do with Administration and everything to do with the people, despite what the TDSers are telling you. Lockdown and safety standards and guidelines are set by States and Counties.The recent rises are all traced back to primarily three things, lots of people not following guidelines such as social distancing and general hygiene, States and counties making the bonehead move of reopening parks and beaches right before the the major three days Memorial Weekend Holiday - allowing them to be swamped by people that was tired of being cooped up at home and having to social distance and wearing masls, and the damn BLM and AntiFa protests/riots/looting. Most law enforcement agencies wouldn't enforce masks, social distancing, and the gatherings of 5/10 people.

                          The San Francisco Bay Area is the most liberal place in the entire nation, and no matter how one might try to deflect it, those jackasses packed shoulder to shoulder, not wearing masks while yelling and screaming at the top of their lungs while harassing people and destroying property were not Trump supporters. Neither were the ones down in Los Angeles.

                          I have to drive through the park and beach everyday. All the authorities did was closed the parking lots, but did not enforce any of the guidelines. There were beer keg parties at the beach. And then once the parks and beaches were reopened, the parking lots were jammed full of cars again. There were so many people packed on the beach that I could not see sand, only people and the waves.

                          Then the "essential business qualifications were all skewed. With all the businesses that were forced to close, all that did was to concentrate the people into primarily Target, Walmart, Lowe's, and Home Depot. Clothing and shoes stores were forced to close, so if you need any of those, you had to fight the crowd at Target and Walmart. Lumber yards, tool stores, and paint stores had to close, so all those idled people with nothing to do packed themselves into Lowe's and Home Deport to get things for there NON ESSENTIAL home improvement projects such as putting up a new vanity in the restroom or getting a new door knob to replace a still perfectly functioning one. The nursery and seed stores had to close, so grandma goes to once again Lowe's or Home Depot for the pre-potted plants. Smoke shops had to close, so more people at drug or convenience stores endangering old people getting their prescriptions and people buying slurpies at 7-Eleven. Used car lots had to close, but not new car dealerships, which conveniently laid off all the people that clean cars so customers drive off with dirty cars. Goodwill stores had to close, depriving the poor of an important outlet for their shortage of funds. They chained up the tennis courts, closed off the baseball fields and golf courses, but basketball courts were left alone because that would be discriminating against the "inner city" folks..............and they still can't figure out if making Black people wear masks at shops OR refusing service because they won't wear a mask is the actual discrimination because it has already happened and reported zealously the press both ways on separate occasions as discrimination.
                          Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

                          Prayers.

                          BoRG

                          http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Salinator View Post

                            Our problems have nothing to do with Administration and everything to do with the people, despite what the TDSers are telling you. Lockdown and safety standards and guidelines are set by States and Counties.The recent rises are all traced back to primarily three things, lots of people not following guidelines such as social distancing and general hygiene, States and counties making the bonehead move of reopening parks and beaches right before the the major three days Memorial Weekend Holiday - allowing them to be swamped by people that was tired of being cooped up at home and having to social distance and wearing masls, and the damn BLM and AntiFa protests/riots/looting. Most law enforcement agencies wouldn't enforce masks, social distancing, and the gatherings of 5/10 people.

                            The San Francisco Bay Area is the most liberal place in the entire nation, and no matter how one might try to deflect it, those jackasses packed shoulder to shoulder, not wearing masks while yelling and screaming at the top of their lungs while harassing people and destroying property were not Trump supporters. Neither were the ones down in Los Angeles.

                            I have to drive through the park and beach everyday. All the authorities did was closed the parking lots, but did not enforce any of the guidelines. There were beer keg parties at the beach. And then once the parks and beaches were reopened, the parking lots were jammed full of cars again. There were so many people packed on the beach that I could not see sand, only people and the waves.

                            Then the "essential business qualifications were all skewed. With all the businesses that were forced to close, all that did was to concentrate the people into primarily Target, Walmart, Lowe's, and Home Depot. Clothing and shoes stores were forced to close, so if you need any of those, you had to fight the crowd at Target and Walmart. Lumber yards, tool stores, and paint stores had to close, so all those idled people with nothing to do packed themselves into Lowe's and Home Deport to get things for there NON ESSENTIAL home improvement projects such as putting up a new vanity in the restroom or getting a new door knob to replace a still perfectly functioning one. The nursery and seed stores had to close, so grandma goes to once again Lowe's or Home Depot for the pre-potted plants. Smoke shops had to close, so more people at drug or convenience stores endangering old people getting their prescriptions and people buying slurpies at 7-Eleven. Used car lots had to close, but not new car dealerships, which conveniently laid off all the people that clean cars so customers drive off with dirty cars. Goodwill stores had to close, depriving the poor of an important outlet for their shortage of funds. They chained up the tennis courts, closed off the baseball fields and golf courses, but basketball courts were left alone because that would be discriminating against the "inner city" folks..............and they still can't figure out if making Black people wear masks at shops OR refusing service because they won't wear a mask is the actual discrimination because it has already happened and reported zealously the press both ways on separate occasions as discrimination.
                            It's best not to take advise from, or to get upset over the opinions of people that do not live here, they just think that they know what they are talking about, it's best to ignore them, and like some where the ignore list doesn't work, ignore them the old fashioned way!
                            Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Didn't most of the countries in Europe close down borders? We didn't shut down our state borders, also, each governor can set their own rules, and mayors can also issue policies. Our mayor just issued a mandatory order for masks to be used on Friday.
                              Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

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