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COVID-19 is Surging in at Least Three Large States...

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  • COVID-19 is Surging in at Least Three Large States...

    ...what is Trump doing about it?

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/polit...ses/index.html


    America's single worst day of new coronavirus cases obliterated President Donald Trump's fantasyland vision of a post-Covid America -- even as he sowed new diversions in an effort to hide the reality of his leadership void in a deepening national crisis.


    More than 37,000 new cases of Covid-19 were reported on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The numbers superseded the previous darkest day of the pandemic, on April 24. The new data suggests that the sacrifices made by tens of millions of Americans who stayed at home, that cost many of them their jobs, might have been in vain. It also suggest that the aggressive state re-openings championed by Trump, who wants a quick economic reboot to boost his reelection hopes, exacerbated a situation that now seems close to tipping out of control across a swathe of southern states.

    A total of 30 states are now reporting a rise in new daily cases of the novel coronavirus while others keep setting new records in each 24-hour period. And while the President lives in a bubble of his own obsessive political feuds and the embrace of conservative media that rarely dwells on the virus, the reality of a pandemic that may still be in its early changes is beginning to squeeze in on his world.

    In a sign that the White House needs to get control of the worsening situation, Vice President Mike Pence will chair the first public briefing of the White House coronavirus task force on Friday in two months. Senior government public health officials have faded from the scene in recent weeks as Trump has tried to send a message that the US has "prevailed" over the virus and is reopening.
    We are not now that strength which in old days
    Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
    Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
    To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

  • #2
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Still showing downward trend in deaths. Most recent data gives 649 deaths on June 25th which compares to 752 announced on the previous Thursday. Seven day moving average is still showing a downward trend.
    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Surrey View Post
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

      Still showing downward trend in deaths. Most recent data gives 649 deaths on June 25th which compares to 752 announced on the previous Thursday. Seven day moving average is still showing a downward trend.
      The data on deaths usually lags that of reported cases, which has been discussed by Dr Fauci and others.
      We are not now that strength which in old days
      Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
      Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
      To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Massena View Post

        The data on deaths usually lags that of reported cases, which has been discussed by Dr Fauci and others.
        If, has the US government has stated most of the new cases are in the under 35s then it won't be an issue as they suffer minimal effects from the virus. Not surprising that many young people my have been infected given the BLM riots.
        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Surrey View Post

          If, has the US government has stated most of the new cases are in the under 35s then it won't be an issue as they suffer minimal effects from the virus. Not surprising that many young people my have been infected given the BLM riots.
          It won't be an issue only if the infection remains among the young people and does not spread from the younger people to the older ones. I would not make a bet for such outcome.

          On a different issue, regarding the death rates let's recall that from the time of infection to the time of death the average time is something like 3 weeks if I remember correctly. So, an increase of infections would not translate immediately to increase of deaths. On the other hand, it is logical to expect that even with a spread of the virus to older people, we still would not see the level of death we saw in the past since the number of infections now is affected by the broader availability of tests. So, high numbers of infections are not that bad compared to the same numbers of infections that we detected in the past. Of course, if lockdown fatigue and economic consequences leads to a new and more risky policies (compared to those that states adopted in April) , things can change to the worse even in comparison to the very bad outcome that we saw a two months ago.
          My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

          Comment


          • #6
            Given the extreme low mortality rate, it is not an issue at all. Kind of like saying "cold and flu season is coming". So?
            Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by pamak View Post

              It won't be an issue only if the infection remains among the young people and does not spread from the younger people to the older ones. I would not make a bet for such outcome.

              On a different issue, regarding the death rates let's recall that from the time of infection to the time of death the average time is something like 3 weeks if I remember correctly. So, an increase of infections would not translate immediately to increase of deaths. On the other hand, it is logical to expect that even with a spread of the virus to older people, we still would not see the level of death we saw in the past since the number of infections now is affected by the broader availability of tests. So, high numbers of infections are not that bad compared to the same numbers of infections that we detected in the past. Of course, if lockdown fatigue and economic consequences leads to a new and more risky policies (compared to those that states adopted in April) , things can change to the worse even in comparison to the very bad outcome that we saw a two months ago.
              Re the lockdown fatigue. A lock down can only be maintained for a limited time before the damage caused outweighs any benefit. Pretty sure that point has now been reached.

              The fatality rate from this disease is vanishingly low amongst most of the population with only the old and those with underlying conditions being significantly at risk. And most of those won't get it and of those that do most will survive.

              So only realistic way forward is to get back to work and advise those in vulnerable groups to take precautions.
              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                Re the lockdown fatigue. A lock down can only be maintained for a limited time before the damage caused outweighs any benefit. Pretty sure that point has now been reached.

                The fatality rate from this disease is vanishingly low amongst most of the population with only the old and those with underlying conditions being significantly at risk. And most of those won't get it and of those that do most will survive.

                So only realistic way forward is to get back to work and advise those in vulnerable groups to take precautions.
                I understand the point about the limited time of a lockdown which is why the mistakes of the Trump administration and the mistakes of the cultural warriors in handling the lockdown and respect even simple things without economic cost like wearing masks was a great mistake.

                A percentage which leads to over 100,000 deaths and one of the highest death rates per million people in the world (despite the natural advantages that the US had) is still high enough for me. Meanwhile, did you see the older cultural warriors who were arguing against wearing a mask?
                My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Here are a few of them



                  Notice the old lady (@ 1 minute) telling us
                  "They want to throw God's wonderful breathing system out'

                  I think only in American you will hear such nonsense in public hearings. And I do not think it is because there is no freedom in Europe to say stupid things in a public forum.It has more to do with the differences in the US and European culture and how prominent christian fundamentalists are on the two sides of the Atlantic.

                  I wonder if this old, christian lady sees the sexual parts of the human anatomy "beautiful."
                  My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                    Given the extreme low mortality rate, it is not an issue at all. Kind of like saying "cold and flu season is coming". So?
                    Tell that to the families of the nearly 150,000 Americans that have died from it. That comment is both ludicrous and disingenuous.
                    We are not now that strength which in old days
                    Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
                    Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
                    To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by pamak View Post

                      I understand the point about the limited time of a lockdown which is why the mistakes of the Trump administration and the mistakes of the cultural warriors in handling the lockdown and respect even simple things without economic cost like wearing masks was a great mistake.

                      A percentage which leads to over 100,000 deaths and one of the highest death rates per million people in the world (despite the natural advantages that the US had) is still high enough for me. Meanwhile, did you see the older cultural warriors who were arguing against wearing a mask?
                      The evidence on the effectiveness of the general public using masks in the community is marginal at best. I am sure a qualified medic like Mountain Man can give you chapter and verse. And if you don't like him there are plenty of other medics out there who will say the same thing.
                      The most effective usage for masks in the US that we see from other here is BLM rioters trying to disguise their identity and protect themselves from tear gas.
                      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                        The evidence on the effectiveness of the general public using masks in the community is marginal at best. I am sure a qualified medic like Mountain Man can give you chapter and verse. And if you don't like him there are plenty of other medics out there who will say the same thing.
                        The most effective usage for masks in the US that we see from other here is BLM rioters trying to disguise their identity and protect themselves from tear gas.
                        I take a marginal effect any time to reduce casualties when it comes with zero economic cost. In fact, it even helps create US jobs!
                        I take advice from verified qualified medics with known identity and credentials.
                        Last edited by pamak; 26 Jun 20, 17:12.
                        My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well rather than just make vague statements here's a good resource put together by Public Health Ontario, released on June 17, 2020:
                          COVID-19What We Know So Far About...Wearing Masks in Public

                          https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-...2020.pdf?la=en

                          This is a good overview because it was put together by researchers looking at a wide range of studies and reports.

                          Methodology here:

                          “What We Know So Far” documents are intended to provide an overview of some of the published and unpublished reports related to emerging issues with respect to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The reports are found through ongoing scanning of the published literature and scientific grey literature (e.g., ProMed, CIDRAP, Johns Hopkins Situation Reports), as well as media reports.For this report library staff at Public Health Ontario searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, EBSCOhost CINAHL, and Scopusfrom January 1, 2000 to June 10, 2020 (search strategy available upon request).It is recognized that there may be additional information not captured in this document. As this is a rapidly evolving outbreak, the information will only be current as of the date the document was written.
                          A step up from an anonymous internet source on a history forum I'd think.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                            https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

                            Still showing downward trend in deaths. Most recent data gives 649 deaths on June 25th which compares to 752 announced on the previous Thursday. Seven day moving average is still showing a downward trend.
                            I’ve noted that every news report I’ve seen has said “cases”. Not hospitalizations or deaths.
                            The failure to be specific makes me wonder if they are including all the people who test positive but have never had any symptoms.
                            Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

                            Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I don't know what's going on here, but in my County the positive rate has climbed from 3 to 48 in the last 5 weeks with one death and that was there from the outset.
                              Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

                              Comment

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