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Do you expect a second wave of Covid 19

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  • Do you expect a second wave of Covid 19

    This is the third installment of my guessing game. It is for the U.S. specifically irrespective of regional differences in 2020.

    Apparently the WHO is now not expecting a second wave. The question is in my opinion how would you detect it.

    My guess is we will see a spike after people become less careful that would technically not be a second wave but for our purposes here we will treat it as such.

    Apparently this virus is following a pattern for corona viruses in which they mutate to a more stable but less virulent form. What that means in terms of acquired immunity isn't clear. It does mean that fewer people will seek testing if they have a milder illness possibility making the spike less evident.
    5
    We will see a modest spike in July or August
    0%
    0
    We will see a modest spike in October through December
    40.00%
    2
    There will be a significant spike in October through December
    20.00%
    1
    There will be a large second wave, time frame unspecified.
    40.00%
    2
    We hunt the hunters

  • #2
    No. There will actually be a drop in the count when the states are forced to correct their falsely reported COVID death certificates. The estimate for Colorado alone is around 40% faked.
    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

    Comment


    • #3
      I don't know about spikes.

      But breakouts, of indeterminate size, are inevitable and they will continue until a vaccine is found. If we're lucky, and smart, the breakouts will be contained before they again put the health care system at risk.

      The timing, and frequency, of the breakouts will depend on the rollout of re-opening and how well prepared the local authorities are to respond.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
        No. There will actually be a drop in the count when the states are forced to correct their falsely reported COVID death certificates. The estimate for Colorado alone is around 40% faked.
        Any link for this?

        Because the verified information shows actually errors from states that UNDERCOUNTED CV cases when they chose to reopen

        https://www.foxnews.com/us/georgia-h...ocessing-error

        Georgia apologizes over 'processing error' after accusations officials were manipulating coronavirus case counts

        The Georgia Department of Public Health apologized Monday for its most recent coronavirus data gaffe, explaining a “processing error” over the weekend had incorrectly shown a downward trend in the number of daily new infections.
        My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

        Comment


        • #5
          Only scientific sampling of the general population will tell you infection rates. Testing is generally only being done in people with symptoms. Even then infection rates alone only let you know how herd immunity may be progressing.

          The original concept of flattening the curve and opening up still seems like a viable approach especially considering the infection rate for those sheltering in p!ace.

          Everyone has an opinion but there isn't one right answer. It is way too complicated a scenario and there will be too many unintended consequences whatever we do.
          We hunt the hunters

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by DingBat View Post
            I don't know about spikes.

            But breakouts, of indeterminate size, are inevitable and they will continue until a vaccine is found. If we're lucky, and smart, the breakouts will be contained before they again put the health care system at risk.

            The timing, and frequency, of the breakouts will depend on the rollout of re-opening and how well prepared the local authorities are to respond.
            I agree with that.

            Two additional points: one for the short-term (during the next summer months ) and one for the long-term development (during the fall and winter)

            While we have seen the CV spread in hot conditions ( see Australia's case in the Southern hemisphere), summer conditions still seem to be an inhibiting factor. To what extend such environmental conditions can put a downward pressure to new breakouts is something that I do not now.

            For the longer term, on issue is how tourism will affect the breakouts. States (and countries) which count o tourism (Greece is among them) have to open up without restrictions. The few tourists (compared to the past) who still want and have the economic ability to go to Greece or Miami or wherever, will not chose such place if there are measures like mandatory quarantines. So, places which avoided up until now the thousands of deaths that we saw in other places (Greece chose a very strict lockdown and has up until now 180 dead overall) may see a quite substantial spike later this year.
            My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by pamak View Post

              I agree with that.

              Two additional points: one for the short-term (during the next summer months ) and one for the long-term development (during the fall and winter)

              While we have seen the CV spread in hot conditions ( see Australia's case in the Southern hemisphere), summer conditions still seem to be an inhibiting factor. To what extend such environmental conditions can put a downward pressure to new breakouts is something that I do not now.

              For the longer term, on issue is how tourism will affect the breakouts. States (and countries) which count o tourism (Greece is among them) have to open up without restrictions. The few tourists (compared to the past) who still want and have the economic ability to go to Greece or Miami or wherever, will not chose such place if there are measures like mandatory quarantines. So, places which avoided up until now the thousands of deaths that we saw in other places (Greece chose a very strict lockdown and has up until now 180 dead overall) may see a quite substantial spike later this year.
              Keep us informed on what happens in Greece.
              We hunt the hunters

              Comment


              • #8
                I dunno. I don't think so, but I do expect terrible people to lie about it, and inflate the current numbers for their own benefit.
                The First Amendment applies to SMS, Emails, Blogs, online news, the Fourth applies to your cell phone, computer, and your car, but the Second only applies to muskets?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by pamak View Post

                  Any link for this?

                  Because the verified information shows actually errors from states that UNDERCOUNTED CV cases when they chose to reopen

                  https://www.foxnews.com/us/georgia-h...ocessing-error

                  Georgia apologizes over 'processing error' after accusations officials were manipulating coronavirus case counts

                  The Georgia Department of Public Health apologized Monday for its most recent coronavirus data gaffe, explaining a “processing error” over the weekend had incorrectly shown a downward trend in the number of daily new infections.
                  Previously posted elsewhere re Colorado.
                  Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The question isn't what the numbers are it's how large a spike do expect to see in the official numbers. I forgot to specify that. Go ahead and vote based on this clarification.
                    We hunt the hunters

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post
                      Only scientific sampling of the general population will tell you infection rates. Testing is generally only being done in people with symptoms. Even then infection rates alone only let you know how herd immunity may be progressing.

                      The original concept of flattening the curve and opening up still seems like a viable approach especially considering the infection rate for those sheltering in p!ace.

                      Everyone has an opinion but there isn't one right answer. It is way too complicated a scenario and there will be too many unintended consequences whatever we do.
                      Hm : infection rates are irrelevant: a second Covid wave means a big number of sick and death,not more infections .
                      The Los Angeles Times said that the number of infections in California could be 2,5 million and that even 7,7 million was possible but that does not mean that more people will be killed .There is no relation between the number of infections and the number of sick and dead . There are now 5,6 million recorded infections and 350000 death cases, but the true number of infections is much higher, maybe 500 million
                      The number of infections in the world can increase, remain stable or decrease , but even if the number would decrease,a second wave is possible,because a second wave means that the illness is strong enough to attack,make sick and kill new victims .

                      Other point : the second wave can kill a lot of people or only a few ,as is doing the ''first '' wave .And if a second wave would kill less people than today, he still could be much dangerous, because the number of deaths is not indicating how dangerous Corona is .
                      Can we know if there will be a second wave ? No .Can we prevent a second wave ? Of course not .

                      Comment

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