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  • The Numbers Just Don't Add Up

    The latest coronavirus, COVID-19, is bad, but 150 million Americans infected? That is what Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting last week.

    A recent projection from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had even more alarming numbers.

    Worst-case scenario, COVID-19 could infect between up to 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill as many as 1.7 million Americans.

    The New York Times used an even more dire model: 2.1 million dead.

    Let’s back up a second. China has a population of 1,437,722,468 as of Tuesday, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.

    COVID-19 was born there (ah, bat eaters), with the first case being diagnosed on Dec. 1.

    On Tuesday, there were 81,054 confirmed cases of the virus, according to Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

    Of those, 68,798 recovered, while 3,230 people died (the remainder were still active cases).

    So that means the infection rate in China was just .006%. How, then, are the “experts” forecasting that well more than 50% of the 320 million people in America — where people already wash their hands incessantly and use Purell nonstop — will be infected?

    Again, look at the numbers. The virus pounded China from December through the third week of February — more than 10 weeks in all — before it leveled off (if you can believe the communist leaders’ claim).

    In the Hubei province, just more than 11% of the nearly 60 million residents were infected. And that was ground zero.

    The spread of COVID-19 in China began leveling off a week before February ended. It topped 80,000 on March 1, but 14 days later it was still less than 81,000. The curve had flattened.

    But let’s go to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for the final word.

    “I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Dr. Fauci said at a congressional hearing last week. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model … it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he said.

    Dr. Fauci also said the breathless media tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models. “Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a million [cases]. We didn’t have a million,” he said.

    No, instead, two people died in the United States from Ebola in 2014. Both contracted the disease overseas. Two more contracted the disease in the United States — both survived.

    On Tuesday, the United States had 5,702 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 94 deaths (48 of those in Washington state alone). The numbers will undoubtedly go up — likely by a lot.

    But President Trump has taken swift action to cut off the influx of foreigners from countries teeming with infection and on Monday laid out stringent new guidelines to halt the upward curve.

    Americans appear to be taking the directives seriously, So, time will tell if it all works.

    But 150 million infected? A million dead? Right now, those numbers just don’t seem to add up.

    Let’s hope they never do.


    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ust-dont-add-/
    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

  • #2
    What do you mean the numbers don't add up? That 200 million Americans could get infected? Or that 2 million of that number would die? That IS THE MATH. 10x deadlier than the flu. 1%+ mortality rate. Why in the world are you using the Chicom healthcare system as a ruler of where the American healthcare system is?

    Ask more questions....please

    Comment


    • #3
      You are using mixed numbers, so no wonder you can't arrive in any sort of sensible conclusion. Confirmed cases and infected are not the same, for starters.
      Wisdom is personal

      Comment


      • #4
        Propaganda rhetoric just to take advantage of a bad situation, and wishful thinking on those that seem to profit from such over-exaggerations.
        The First Amendment applies to SMS, Emails, Blogs, online news, the Fourth applies to your cell phone, computer, and your car, but the Second only applies to muskets?

        Comment


        • #5
          Depends on how they're modelling this. If they are using an exponential curve model and equation, as likely is the case, then just as with Gorebal Warming the prediction would forecast out into the future as a very dire one.

          However, I've been cursorily following Arizona's case rise and it fits a Fibonacci sequence far better than an exponential equation does. That would forecast out a far lower rate of infection.

          In Arizona, there was one case on March 3rd. Today the count is 401. I predict that by the 31st it will be about 1500, if it continues to rise. Let's see if that's close to the actual figure in five days.

          So, my suspicion is that the modelling the "experts" are using is a badly flawed one, and their dire predictions won't pan out any more than Gorebal Warming has. After all, in a situation like this there is every reason for the "experts" to predict the worst case they can.

          * It creates urgency
          * It in turn will get them larger amounts of funding
          * It gets them more attention and publicity
          * If it turns out in the end to be less dire than predicted they can claim "We missed that bullet..." and still walk away rich.
          * If it does somehow turn out as dire as predicted they can claim "See! I was right all along..."

          For the "experts" over predicting a disaster is a good thing for personal business.
          Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 26 Mar 20, 12:47.

          Comment


          • #6
            It also causes people to not give a crap the next time. We've been pounded with doom and gloom and everyone's gonna die for weeks now. If this fizzles out, then to the average American all of it wasn't worth it and the 'experts' are morons.
            Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
              However, I've been cursorily following Arizona's case rise and it fits a Fibonacci sequence far better than an exponential equation does. That would forecast out a far lower rate of infection.

              In Arizona, there was one case on March 3rd. Today the count is 401. I predict that by the 31st it will be about 1500, if it continues to rise. Let's see if that's close to the actual figure in five days.
              1500 is roughly the same expected total as exponential with a 25% daily increase. Today added 107 new cases.

              Extrapolating that forward gives several hundred dead by the end of April with no action, and potentially more than a million infected.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Aber View Post

                1500 is roughly the same expected total as exponential with a 25% daily increase. Today added 107 new cases.

                Extrapolating that forward gives several hundred dead by the end of April with no action, and potentially more than a million infected.
                Actually, adding the number of cases from two days ago to the number four days ago comes closer to the rise in Arizona. It's not a perfect fit, but it comes pretty close to the actual numbers seen. My exact number for the 31st is 1577. It should be 977 on the 29th and I predicted 600 for tomorrow. That's the rough count and that uses the Fibonacci sequence formula, not an exponential.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Your numbers might not add up because they're wrong or out dated. We don't have 94 deaths in America, we're currently at 1,000 deaths and 68,000 reported cases.

                  A bunch of things that make the US different.

                  China effectively quarantined Wuhan, while Americans are ignoring stay at home orders. Because of that, expect more spread in the US.
                  45% of Americans are obese, which doctors say is just as harmful as smoking when it comes to battling a virus that attacks the lungs.
                  Vaping is also popular in America, that combined with obesity could lead to a worse mortality rate, possibly.

                  In addition to that, China is manipulating their numbers.
                  "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                  - Benjamin Franklin

                  The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TactiKill J. View Post
                    Your numbers might not add up because they're wrong or out dated. We don't have 94 deaths in America, we're currently at 1,000 deaths and 68,000 reported cases.

                    A bunch of things that make the US different.

                    China effectively quarantined Wuhan, while Americans are ignoring stay at home orders. Because of that, expect more spread in the US.
                    45% of Americans are obese, which doctors say is just as harmful as smoking when it comes to battling a virus that attacks the lungs.
                    Vaping is also popular in America, that combined with obesity could lead to a worse mortality rate, possibly.

                    In addition to that, China is manipulating their numbers.
                    Out of something over 300 million legal Americans and anther several million illegals. Hardly crisis numbers by any standard. We do that every eyar during the flu season, and we kill off more than that with auto accidents and heart attacks on a routine basis.

                    Maybe the question should be: why is the government trying to panic us instead of reassure us?
                    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Because the disease is that bad, you should watch Chinese dissident videos being smuggled from China, maybe millions of people have died.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by OttoHarkaman View Post
                        Because the disease is that bad, you should watch Chinese dissident videos being smuggled from China, maybe millions of people have died.
                        You mean "the numbers are that bad in China", right? Because they are not that bad here, and my question remains unanswered.

                        Why the hype and deliberate fear-mongering?
                        Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          They are going to get that bad here, not going to argue with you, we can pick this thread up next week

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                            Out of something over 300 million legal Americans and anther several million illegals. Hardly crisis numbers by any standard. We do that every eyar during the flu season, and we kill off more than that with auto accidents and heart attacks on a routine basis.

                            Maybe the question should be: why is the government trying to panic us instead of reassure us?
                            When a virus outbreak happens, 1 million people won't get infected overnight. It takes time for the virus to spread and we're still at the early stages of this in America. So you have to look at how it's trending in order to project what things will look like several weeks from now. Right now it is on pace to be deadlier than the flu. It is also on pace to hospitalize more people than the flu.

                            Secondly, it's not just about the coronavirus itself. Like you mentioned, people are in auto accidents on a daily basis. What happens to those people when our hospital ICUs are full due to coronavirus. Millions of people won't be able to get the critical treatment they need, for other conditions or accidents, because our hospitals will be at capacity. Thus, the virus will impact everyone, making everything deadlier than it would normally be under typical circumstances.

                            So, the question should be: what the hell does it take to get Americans to wake up and stop living in denial? There is insurmountable evidence and factual data available that indicates the seriousness of this virus, yet many still refuse to accept the facts.
                            "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                              You mean "the numbers are that bad in China", right? Because they are not that bad here, and my question remains unanswered.

                              Why the hype and deliberate fear-mongering?
                              Yeah things weren't that bad in China in December or early January either. Do you understand that it just recently hit America?
                              "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
                              - Benjamin Franklin

                              The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

                              Comment

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