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Like it or don't, this is probably November 2020

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  • Like it or don't, this is probably November 2020

    This op ed in, of all places, the WaPo is a fairly lucid description of what's likely to happen come November 2020 unless something big dramatically changes on the national stage. That is, the economy tanks (possible but not likely), some other nation does something that impacts the US in a major negative way, that sort of thing. Impeaching, or even seriously taking that up, Trump will end in disaster for the Democrats. Trying to get a shortcut out of Mueller is dead and buried.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opini...cid=spartandhp

    Because right now, the way things are, Trump is almost certain to win reelection. The Democrats are fielding Leftists and crackpots to oppose him.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.893a89ebd0ec

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.503e0c778811

    With a strong, much stronger than Obama managed in his 8 years, economy, low unemployment, and a clear (even if you disagree about it) position on foreign policy about who's with and against us, there isn't a lot of room for the Democrats to argue for changing horses or Presidents. The Democrats can't even use illegal immigration. The second they sound like they're for open borders (even if the say they aren't) that topic is lost for them. The New Green Deal won't fly for a second with most Americans who recognize it for the train wreck it is.

    So, what position can a Democrat contender take to counter Trump? "I'm not Trump" won't cut it.


  • #2
    Let me add, that CNN tries to counter the above.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opini...cid=spartandhp

    They rely on poll numbers to argue that Trump won't win, and certainly won't win easily. But, those same poll numbers were what they were arguing would make Hillary win in 2016...

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    • #3
      Well his foreign policy is not hardly clear. One minute he says we're supporting terrorist in Syria and need to leave, the next minute he says we have to stay. But, that's not why he was elected. He was elected to restore racial order and fix the economy, as long as those two things stay in order I personally see no reason why he wouldn't be reelected.
      "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
      - Benjamin Franklin

      The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
        () "I'm not Trump" won't cut it.
        But "I'm not Hillary" might

        Running anybody not repulsive enough to make Democrat voters stay at home, should be enough to defeat a windbag like Trump.

        Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post

          But "I'm not Hillary" might

          Running anybody not repulsive enough to make Democrat voters stay at home, should be enough to defeat a windbag like Trump.
          The interesting thing is, that would have been a greater truth during the first election. Back then all Trump had to run on was bombast and promises people were used to seeing unfulfilled. A non Hillary would have smoked him.

          Now he has a rocking economy to his name and the Dems have had their favorite conspiracies go up in smoke. It'll be harder for them now. They really blew it pushing Hillary.
          A new life awaits you in the off world colonies; the chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

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          • #6
            Well you've been here long enough to remember all the "Obama Can't be Re-elected... " threads..

            This is just the same but in reverse imho, wishfull thinking, we'll see
            Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

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            • #7
              At this point, the strong economy and a lack of a serious primary challenge gives Trump a big edge.

              The DNC primary is going to be an expensive bloodbath, and may well fragment an already divided party. So the lead Dem will have Napoleon's final challenge: win one campaign fast (the DNC primary) than shift to face another (the general election).

              And unless something terrible happens, they will need something more than 'hate Trump' as a campaign slogan. The economy is doing well, foreign affairs are positive, so they are going to have to find an issue and push is hard.
              Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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              • #8
                Worse, right now, the Democrats haven't got an issue position that resonates with voters other than "I'm not Trump!" I can't see any of them winning with a TDS platform.

                The Democrats right now, aren't on the correct side of one major issue at least as the majority of the population goes.

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                • #9
                  "whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap."

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                    Worse, right now, the Democrats haven't got an issue position that resonates with voters other than "I'm not Trump!" I can't see any of them winning with a TDS platform.

                    The Democrats right now, aren't on the correct side of one major issue at least as the majority of the population goes.
                    They don't have any policies except 'oppose Trump'.

                    Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post

                      They don't have any policies except 'oppose Trump'.
                      Oh, contraire AJ! They are having a big give away contest. Free everything! College, healthcare, retirement, jobs, housing, recreation, you name it and it's "free!" They haven't got a clue how to pay for any of it other than rob the rich, but they're sure offering a lot of free this time around.

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                      • #12
                        That's pretty much their downfall.

                        Were the Democrats to all get behind one reasonable candidate, they'd have a reasonable chance of winning. It would still be uphill as Trump has the incumbent bump and the economy bump, both difficult but not insurmountable hurdles to cross.

                        The issue the Democrats have is multi-fold

                        1) The Mainstream Media has lost massive credibility over the past 2 years. The obsession with the Mueller Report hurt their ratings so badly that immediately post-Mueller, when the Media had been discredited and then doubled down on it, FOX outranked MSNBC, CNN, (and I think one other outlet).....COMBINED. A self-described Entertainment News channel pasted the establishment 'news media' as a whole in ratings and viewership among most of the key demographics. This is an issue for the Democrats as the establishment media has always leaned left and has always given some assistance to more left-side causes and candidates.

                        2) The massive number of candidates, with most of them saying the same things. Trump was able to ride over the Republican candidates because he was visible and got his message out. With pretty much all of the major Democratic candidates having roughly the same message, you basically have a choice between Vanilla, Vanilla Bean, French Vanilla, and Vanilla with Sprinkles. Then there are the minor candidates which have no fiscal support (Trump was able to float his own campaign until donations caught up, none of them are independently wealthy), and a lot of them have downright Crazy ideas.

                        3) The 'New Wave' Democrat Congresscritters, getting a Lot of Media and Viral attention, vary from idiotic to psychotic, with some falling in a mix of both. This alienates the more 'blue dog' voting base.

                        4) The Democrat Party in general has been listening to the Twitterverse, which is highly polarized. Reports have been made that while the Democrat typical voter hasn't moved much farther left than in the Clinton Years (Bill), the zealots have, and they're dragging the Party in that direction as well. This has the potential to demotivate voters.

                        5) Going back to 2, several of the candidates tendering their bid have very vocal bases that will not vote for one of their counterparts. In fact, over 20% of Bernie die-hards said in a survey that they would vote for Trump if Bernie didn't win the nomination. Presuming that other candidates have a die-hard base, this could be damning.

                        6) Going back to 1, with the fall of the establishment media, long under the sway of party politics and particularly Democrat Party Politics, has been the rise of the Alternative Media. Efforts to censor or shut them down, or smear them, have only resulted in additional interest and popularity. This includes relatively center-left personages like Dave Rubin and Tim Pool, who have growing followings and interest, and who have serious issues with the vocal and powerful Left Wing of the Democrats. While they probably won't generate votes for Trump, they may generate votes for a Libertarian, Green, or other party candidate.

                        7) The Democrats put a lot of faith in the Mueller Report, and played it up as 'trust the special counsel'. Then the Mueller Report came down with no bill of indictment, no recommendation to do so, and presented no evidence of the 'collusion' or 'conspiracy' which had been touted for 2 years without fail. This hurt the Democrats public image to the independent voter in the same way that it crushed the numbers of outlets like MSNBC down to Home Shopping Network levels (hyperbole mine for emphasis).

                        8) Recent movements within the Center-Left and Center to "Just Leave" the Democrats.

                        9) The Democrats blatant inability to work on anything about border security, and several vocal members commentaries on same. This flies in the face of a lot of evidence and even in the face of their own rhetoric just 8 years ago, when they were also making nearly congruent speeches to Trump on the same issues.

                        Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                        • #13
                          It's just a little early to be declaring winners and losers. The election is next year, not this year.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

                            With a strong, much stronger than Obama managed in his 8 years, economy, low unemployment,
                            I wouldn't be too optimistic on 2020. Not gonna be fun for republicans.

                            Additionally, Trump inherited a booming economy and has only slowed it since taking office.

                            blog_gdp_growth_q1_2019.gif

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by inevtiab1e View Post

                              I wouldn't be too optimistic on 2020. Not gonna be fun for republicans.

                              Additionally, Trump inherited a booming economy and has only slowed it since taking office.

                              blog_gdp_growth_q1_2019.gif
                              Actually, you'd be wrong. Obama's economy pretty much sucked except for the bounce back right after the Great Recession.



                              That's what happens when you push more government regulation, especially uncontrolled growth in regulation, and couple that with unrealistic government led economic programs like a "Green" economy. Obama had eight years of pathetic, limping, and underperforming growth in the economy because of it.

                              But, graphs aren't what will sway voters. Employment, their tax rates, their ability to spend, and their personal feelings about how their personal income and wealth are doing will.

                              So, consumer confidence is back up to where it is in "good" times, as opposed to lower in the Obama years, unemployment is at a low. People on welfare, food stamps, etc., are far fewer. The economy is doing well. That's a big hurdle to overcome for the Democrats.

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