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Why we must win the trade war with China

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  • JustAGuy
    replied
    Originally posted by jeffdoorgunnr View Post
    just one opinion to dispute that...…………
    http://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=1930
    Here is the quote in the article you cite, in context. Your source only gives you the part of the story that suits his purpose. The context is "when negotiations failed" not the trade embargo.

    ".... the Japanese [were] notorious for making an attack without warning." one asked how, when negotiations failed, "we should maneuver them into the position of firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves." (Elting E. Morison, "Turmoil and Tradition, p. 525 )

    For additional context on the negotiations see pp. 245-257 of *Gerhard Weinberg's "A World At Arms: A Global History of WWII."

    "On the American side, the hope that some way of avoiding war with Japan could still be found encouraged the President and Secretary of State to meet time and time again with the Japanese ambassador." (p. 246)

    "It was their hope, furthermore, that the negotiations themselves might enable them to win enough time to rearm to an extent that eventually the Japanese would give up any new projects of new conquests altogether." (p. 246)

    *Gerhard Weinberg is one the most respected authorities on WWII. You may also wish to read his "Visions of Victory: The Hopes of Eight World War II Leaders" for more information about the Japanese side of this topic.

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  • The Exorcist
    replied
    Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post
    I think you have to define winning. Winning is not about a one off event. It is about an iterated game that people will keep playing but more importantly the proliferation of games so that there are many winners. The Chinese government does not have the developmental history to see the world as a iterated series of games with multiple winners. Communism is the delusion of a final game or the end of history. That this is a characteristic of all nationalistic states that are not liberal democracies should be self evident. Trump is proposing a set of iterative games that while competitive are not about a final victory. People will not play a game for long when there are cheaters or no chance of winning.
    Well, at the very least, we ought to be able to solve the problems from the OP. Bringing back industries critical to Defense would seem to be a goal worth attaining.

    Yes, good points, but there must be some way to make the Chinese see the light. It is as if they have taken a half-step into Captitalism, but are afraid to go all the way.

    Leave a comment:


  • wolfhnd
    replied
    I think you have to define winning. Winning is not about a one off event. It is about an iterated game that people will keep playing but more importantly the proliferation of games so that there are many winners. The Chinese government does not have the developmental history to see the world as a iterated series of games with multiple winners. Communism is the delusion of a final game or the end of history. That this is a characteristic of all nationalistic states that are not liberal democracies should be self evident. Trump is proposing a set of iterative games that while competitive are not about a final victory. People will not play a game for long when there are cheaters or no chance of winning.

    Leave a comment:


  • Half Pint John
    replied
    Jack Ryans solution, I liked it then, I like the idea now and cut out subsidies

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exorcist
    replied
    Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post

    Of course it matters, but,tell me , how will the US "win" ? What will be the victory conditions ?
    It might give some people a warm glow in their loins with the thought that the US is teaching the Chinese a thing or two about fair trading, but what would be the pay-off ?

    (My Children are Australian,by the way and China is our most important trading partner)
    .
    (then Trump won't have much to do with their policy)

    A reduction in Chinese Tariffs.
    Period.

    Look, maybe we should just have one simple policy with regards to Tariffs; the Mirror Policy.
    Whatever anyone hits our products with, they get the same in return. No incremental nonsense, no argument, just slap their products with exactly the same fees and restrictions the do with ours.
    .... or would they just lie about that, too?

    Leave a comment:


  • jeffdoorgunnr
    replied
    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post

    Not a trade war.
    just one opinion to dispute that...…………

    http://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=1930

    Leave a comment:


  • JustAGuy
    replied
    Originally posted by jeffdoorgunnr View Post

    WW2. Japans unconditional surrender...……..The united states won.
    Not a trade war.

    Leave a comment:


  • jeffdoorgunnr
    replied
    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post

    Please name a single trade war in modern times that had a clear winner. Provide source/s.
    WW2. Japans unconditional surrender...……..The united states won.

    Leave a comment:


  • BELGRAVE
    replied
    Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post

    So it does not matter that China is the one that started with jacked-up rates in the first place, eh?

    All I am getting here is that China could go full-Mafia and everyone would be okay with their dinky little share because they won't stick their necks out... its too scary out there to interfere with the transfer of wealth to China.
    Did you ever think that your kids might see it differently?
    At the rate we are going, they will be the next Mao's debt slaves in 20 years.
    Of course it matters, but,tell me , how will the US "win" ? What will be the victory conditions ?
    It might give some people a warm glow in their loins with the thought that the US is teaching the Chinese a thing or two about fair trading, but what would be the pay-off ?

    (My Children are Australian,by the way and China is our most important trading partner)
    .

    Leave a comment:


  • Johan Banér
    replied
    It's necessary to get China to actually do something about the protection of intellectual property in China, opening the Chinese economy to foreign investment that is not controlled by the CCP, reduce subsidised massive Chinese overproduction of steel, etc.

    The question is if a unilaterally declared US trade war with China is fit for purpose. Not least if it's going to kick off in tandem with a similar one with the EU...

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exorcist
    replied
    Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post

    Surely it's not a Good Guy /Bad Guy situation:- or even a Left /Right situation.
    The US raises tariffs: China raises tariffs in retaliation:- who wins ?
    So it does not matter that China is the one that started with jacked-up rates in the first place, eh?

    All I am getting here is that China could go full-Mafia and everyone would be okay with their dinky little share because they won't stick their necks out... its too scary out there to interfere with the transfer of wealth to China.
    Did you ever think that your kids might see it differently?
    At the rate we are going, they will be the next Mao's debt slaves in 20 years.

    Leave a comment:


  • BELGRAVE
    replied
    Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post

    People go to war because the current situation is so intolerable that fighting is preferable to going along with the status quo, especially if going along means putting up with invasion and theft.
    Have you ever heard of what China steals from us every day over the internet or via copyright infringement?

    And if their tariffs are a dozen times what ours are, how the hell does balancing that out make us (or Trump) the bad guy?

    Yeah, I know, everyone on the Left has to automatically attack anything and everything ever done or said by Trump, that's part of their mass hysteria... but why listen to the equivalent of millions of whining children who have never, and never will, have anything different to say?
    Surely it's not a Good Guy /Bad Guy situation:- or even a Left /Right situation.
    The US raises tariffs: China raises tariffs in retaliation:- who wins ?

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exorcist
    replied
    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post

    All I know is my very conservative portfolio of investments has taken a hit because of the GOT's trade war.
    Which one, exactly?

    Not a single person you have spoken to believes that a better deal for the US could possibly help our economy?
    Strange... I suggest you expand your circle a bit.


    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post
    You may remember the stock market was in a stable growth cycle until he started this crap. Its ongoing volatility is due in part to the trade war.
    What dates do you assign to that cycle?


    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post
    I am nearly certain you will answer with something hateful, and I look forward to it.
    Why? You didn't say anything that was deliberately offensive, this time.



    Chine is the one that is on the ropes, its time to stop whining about what might happen and get that better deal right now, one for the long-term.

    China’s leaders have panicked at the slowdown and have started the credit flow again with lower interest rates, higher bank leverage and more debt-financed, government-directed infrastructure spending. Of course, this solution is strictly temporary. All it does is postpone the day of reckoning and make the debt crisis worse when it does arrive.
    https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-...dy-to-explode/

    A certain amount of hype there, too pessimistic by about 30%, but what China is doing ain't even working for them.
    Things need to change, NOW.

    And the other signs that things are not working are all over the place in China, in ways that just can't be covered up;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iINI81nvbAs





    The time to strike is now, not later.


    Leave a comment:


  • JustAGuy
    replied
    Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post

    Still arguing like a nasty little child, I see. And stop waiting for somebody to ask what your 4-letter acronyms mean, nobody cares.

    China is already at war with us under that definition.
    I know you guys hate it when the USA take action to defend against this sort of aggression, but popular do you think this attitude will make you with people who want to work for a living?
    All I know is my very conservative portfolio of investments has taken a hit because of the GOT's trade war. You may remember the stock market was in a stable growth cycle until he started this crap. Its ongoing volatility is due in part to the trade war. Talked with two investment advisors in the past few weeks. The news was not good and the outlook is worse unless the GOT stops this idiocy.

    I am nearly certain you will answer with something hateful, and I look forward to it.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Exorcist
    replied
    Originally posted by JustAGuy View Post

    Despite your hate for the TDSL and unwavering (dog-like) support for the Great Orange Twit, history informs us that nobody ever wins trade wars.

    So yap away. In the end no one will win this ill-advised trade war, and the world economy will suffer for it.
    Still arguing like a nasty little child, I see. And stop waiting for somebody to ask what your 4-letter acronyms mean, nobody cares.




    Trade war
    A trade war is an economic conflict resulting from extreme protectionism in which states raise or create tariffs or other trade barriers against each other in response to trade barriers created by the other party. Increased protection causes both nations' output compositions to move towards their autarky position
    China is already at war with us under that definition.
    I know you guys hate it when the USA take action to defend against this sort of aggression, but popular do you think this attitude will make you with people who want to work for a living?

    Leave a comment:

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