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  • Manafort trial outcome

    It is interesting to note that the longer the 12 person jury deliberates the higher the probability of a return of not guilty is on the charges. This probability is only slightly in favor of the defense, but it is significant enough that it is the case with 12 person juries. The Manafort jury has been deliberating for three days now. Not looking good for a slam dunk guilty charge.

    My bet is Manafort walks on most of the charges and gets hit with one or two, most probably the least serious. I doubt prosecutors will pursue the case further or go to appeal on it too.

  • #2
    I'm no expert. In the cases I've followed, the longer the jury is out the greater the chance of a hung jury.
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Beatrice Evelyn Hall
    Updated for the 21st century... except if you are criticizing islam, that scares the $hii+e out of me!

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    • #3
      You are right. The longer this goes on, the more it suggests the jury has doubts about the evidence. It isn't a good sign for the prosecution.

      Another bad sign is that the jury already asked the judge to "redefine reasonable doubt".
      Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

      Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post
        You are right. The longer this goes on, the more it suggests the jury has doubts about the evidence. It isn't a good sign for the prosecution.

        Another bad sign is that the jury already asked the judge to "redefine reasonable doubt".
        Some people on the Forum here are foaming at their Mouths, they want him to be found guilty, even though the charges had nothing to do with the intend of the Mueller investigation, so they can say, see, we told you so!

        Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Trung Si View Post

          Some people on the Forum here are foaming at their Mouths, they want him to be found guilty, even though the charges had nothing to do with the intend of the Mueller investigation, so they can say, see, we told you so!

          I suspect that a guilty verdict will be greeted as proof that trump is guilty of conspiracy and a not guilty will mean that trump fixed the verdict.
          I have no idea if manafort is guilty or if the prosecution has proved its case, but I do know that the jury knows far more about the case than any of us.
          The jury might get it wrong, but it will still be a more informed decision than the ones coming from those who are certain of what the result should be.
          Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

          Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

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          • #6
            The news is saying Cohen reached a plea deal with the prosecution.

            https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mich...ry?id=57310974

            I'm betting he gets hit with a whopping big fine, little or no jail time, one or two of the more minor charges is found guilty of, and he otherwise walks with no agreement to cooperate with Mueller.
            I suspect the prosecution was getting antsy about what the jury would come back with so they took a deal to get a conviction, even if it means they let Cohen walk on most of the charges and get no cooperation. Almost any prosecutor would do that as a failure to convict looks terrible on their resume for promotion and I really doubt that the prosecutors are going to put Mueller's investigation ahead of their own careers.

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            • #7
              I think it depends.

              One guy made a deal but only after he been caught lying numerous times and appears to be getting almost no consideration.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post

                I suspect that a guilty verdict will be greeted as proof that trump is guilty of conspiracy and a not guilty will mean that trump fixed the verdict.
                I have no idea if manafort is guilty or if the prosecution has proved its case, but I do know that the jury knows far more about the case than any of us.
                The jury might get it wrong, but it will still be a more informed decision than the ones coming from those who are certain of what the result should be.
                from what I have seen most trial watchers ie news guys lawyers say it a pretty open shut case except that it is complicated boring money stuff.

                So the jury may be overwhelmed with information and not know how to organize it in simple fashion.

                Overall I just see this as being dumb and putting yourself in a spotlight when you shouldn't of. Ie if not for him getting involved with Trump he probally would of skated. Same thing would of occurred if he was involved with Clinton.

                Sometimes it good to not get to close to the spotlight if you know whats is good for ya.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Trung Si View Post

                  Some people on the Forum here are foaming at their Mouths, they want him to be found guilty, even though the charges had nothing to do with the intend of the Mueller investigation, so they can say, see, we told you so!

                  btw so Bill shouldn't of been questioned about Monica then.

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                  • #10
                    Looks like the jury convicted him on 8 of 18 counts. I'd say Mueller isn't getting anything from him any time soon and the counts will likely result in some prison time. At this point, Mueller hasn't got anything to bargain with. I doubt the prosecution will try a second time. Too expensive, and there's too much risk Manafort ends up with less than they already got him for.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                      Looks like the jury convicted him on 8 of 18 counts. I'd say Mueller isn't getting anything from him any time soon and the counts will likely result in some prison time. At this point, Mueller hasn't got anything to bargain with. I doubt the prosecution will try a second time. Too expensive, and there's too much risk Manafort ends up with less than they already got him for.
                      Does not sound reasonable since I heard that they did NOT find him not guilty for the rest of the charges. According to what I heard, there will be a different trial for those charges where the jury did not arrive at a decision. Still, I had not time to read details. Too many developments! Cohen pleaded guilty also, including for campaign finance violations. One after the other the crooks who surrounded Trump start feeling the consequences of their actions.
                      My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by pamak View Post

                        Does not sound reasonable since I heard that they did NOT find him not guilty for the rest of the charges. According to what I heard, there will be a different trial for those charges where the jury did not arrive at a decision. Still, I had not time to read details. Too many developments! Cohen pleaded guilty also, including for campaign finance violations. One after the other the crooks who surrounded Trump start feeling the consequences of their actions.
                        Does sound reasonable. Manafort's trial cost money. Lots of money. If the prosecution isn't pretty damn sure they have a lock on the other charges, they won't waste their time and budget pursuing them. They got the guilty verdict. They get to pad their resume with that. Why take a chance on the other charges?

                        Since none of this has anything to do with the Russia investigation, Mueller now has zip point $h!+ from these two guys as leverage to get them to roll over. Why would they? What do they gain from it? Mueller can't reduce their sentence or reverse the findings of the court. On the other hand, they can hope Trump will pardon them for keeping quiet (ala Bill Clinton's MO), or that he will later reward them for doing so.

                        So, the US Attorney's office gets a win. Trump gets a win. Mueller gets nothing.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

                          Does sound reasonable. Manafort's trial cost money. Lots of money. If the prosecution isn't pretty damn sure they have a lock on the other charges, they won't waste their time and budget pursuing them. They got the guilty verdict. They get to pad their resume with that. Why take a chance on the other charges?

                          Since none of this has anything to do with the Russia investigation, Mueller now has zip point $h!+ from these two guys as leverage to get them to roll over. Why would they? What do they gain from it? Mueller can't reduce their sentence or reverse the findings of the court. On the other hand, they can hope Trump will pardon them for keeping quiet (ala Bill Clinton's MO), or that he will later reward them for doing so.

                          So, the US Attorney's office gets a win. Trump gets a win. Mueller gets nothing.
                          I am not sure what happens when the judge declares a mistrial for certain counts. Mueller gets to find all criminals for any reason that came out of his investigation. Every time any of them is found guilty, Mueller accomplishes his objective! By the way, I seriously doubt that Mueller will ever consider to take a sitting president to trial. All you need is one person with views similar to that of some people in this forum to have a hung jury. The issue just like with Clinton will be resolved politically. If the Democrats get the House, they will hear Mueller's findings and most probably they will go for an impeachment. And if this happens the Senate will find him not guilty. Notice that today Cohen added one more reason for an impeachment. Of course, the above scenario assumes that there is not an extraordinary finding that clearly shows Trump's guilt when even his republican buddies will not be able to save him.
                          My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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                          • #14
                            The prosecution has to decide if they want to have another trial for the charges no verdict was returned on. Prosecutors normally don't bother if they got a conviction out of the trial to begin with. Their view is "Why mess with success?" They don't want to have to try and justify the budget and money spent for a second trial that gets them little new in terms of results.

                            As for impeachment... If the Democrats take the House back and try this, and the vote is strictly party line, they will be shooting themselves in the foot as surely as the Republicans did with Clinton. They won't be able to justify a partisan vote for impeachment to anyone but their party faithful. They'd need at least a few Republicans onboard to make it work. But... They might be stupid enough to try it anyway.

                            In the Senate the vote to convict would certainly fail... Unless the Senate majority leader decides it's to be a simple majority vote. That would absolutely finish the Democrats as a party for a decade or two. A party-line impeachment that bent and changed the rules to get a conviction. It would throw the country into turmoil as it would look like a power grab by the Democrats.

                            Neither Cohen nor Manafort will add anything to a call for impeachment. In both cases, neither the Democrats or Mueller have any good cards to play to get something out of either one now. Trump is holding the strong hand with pardons and possible later pay offs after he leaves office. Democrat arguments that Cohen and Manafort show Trump is / was doing illegal stuff... particularly regarding the Russians... is clearly nonsense.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                              The prosecution has to decide if they want to have another trial for the charges no verdict was returned on. Prosecutors normally don't bother if they got a conviction out of the trial to begin with. Their view is "Why mess with success?" They don't want to have to try and justify the budget and money spent for a second trial that gets them little new in terms of results.

                              As for impeachment... If the Democrats take the House back and try this, and the vote is strictly party line, they will be shooting themselves in the foot as surely as the Republicans did with Clinton. They won't be able to justify a partisan vote for impeachment to anyone but their party faithful. They'd need at least a few Republicans onboard to make it work. But... They might be stupid enough to try it anyway.

                              In the Senate the vote to convict would certainly fail... Unless the Senate majority leader decides it's to be a simple majority vote. That would absolutely finish the Democrats as a party for a decade or two. A party-line impeachment that bent and changed the rules to get a conviction. It would throw the country into turmoil as it would look like a power grab by the Democrats.

                              Neither Cohen nor Manafort will add anything to a call for impeachment. In both cases, neither the Democrats or Mueller have any good cards to play to get something out of either one now. Trump is holding the strong hand with pardons and possible later pay offs after he leaves office. Democrat arguments that Cohen and Manafort show Trump is / was doing illegal stuff... particularly regarding the Russians... is clearly nonsense.
                              If the trial is only about the remaining counts, they cannot mess with success, but I see the point that they may decide that they already they got what they wanted, and they will not want to waste more time. Part of the decision may be linked to what the actual sentence is. If Manafort gets many years of prison, then this is an additional reason for the prosecutors to refuse to pursue his conviction for additional crimes. By the way in what way did the republicans "shoot themselves in the foot" with Clinton's impeachment? It was not that Clinton gained back his reputation after he was not convicted by the Senate and every finding against Trump by the Mueller investigation can certainly be used by the democrats to justify politically their actions.
                              My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

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