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The future of Tesla and the Semi Truck

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Aber View Post
    Using a simple average by regions, rather than the average weighted by where the plants will be built, and ignoring tax credits.

    Looking at the minimum cost (ie where the best place for solar will be) the difference is now down to 13% over the lowest gas turbine cost, BEFORE tax credits.

    And of course wind is even lower.
    The tax credits aren't part of the system costs... but they are ultimately part of the cost of the eletricity.



    Solar pre-tax LCOE would have to be 1/3 that of natural gas to alter this correlation.

    If the economics of solar were significantly changing, the projected growth rate of renewables (including hydroelectric) would exceed natural gas and petroleum liquids...
    In 2040 fossil (petroleum and other liquids, natural gas and coal) and nuclear fuels are projected to supply about 83% of global total energy consumption with 9% from renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, other) and 8% from hydro.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/...nergy-in-2040/



    Solar is a tiny fraction of the 9%.

    By 2040, EIA forecasts that electricity generation from renewables (including hydroelectric) will just be catching up to coal...



    However, solar will just be a tiny fraction (10%) of the renewables mix...



    10% of 31% is 3.1%. If the economics of solar were significantly improving, the forecast for solar power wouldn't be so insignificant.


    https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf
    Last edited by The Doctor; 30 Dec 17, 08:26.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by SRV Ron View Post
      The casual poster or visitor is not going to see your picture. Use a hosting service, such as IMGUR, which is free and reliable. Use large or huge thumbnails.

      Trucking companies are already testing the elimination of the driver, especially for long haul, with self driving trucks.

      The advantage;
      1. No driver that has to be paid either by the mile or by the hour.
      2. No down time due to Federal laws on limits behind the wheel.
      3. No second driver needed for long hauls that have to go non stop.
      4. No pit stop, 10-100 breaks, etc...
      5. More efficient driving that gives better mileage.
      6. Long haul loads travel non stop on trucks that carry the fuel needed for the trip.

      Now, I'd love to see what happens when the self driving trucks run into snowy slippery conditions in the winter, especially in the mountain passes or whiteouts in the Great Plains.
      And we get to eliminate another opportunity for humans to support themselves with gainful employment and make them dependent on socialism.
      And more tax burdens instead of tax payers, and all their children will grow up on welfare thus creating generations of democrats waiting for government subsidies.
      What could possibly go water.
      Dispite our best intentions, the system is dysfunctional that intelligence failure is guaranteed.
      Russ Travers, CIA analyst, 2001

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      • #33
        Tesla's future is murky ever since Elon Musk quit Trump's advisory council. He can kiss the subsidies good-bye. Without taxpayer money, Tesla may not survive for much longer.
        "Stand for the flag ~ Kneel for the fallen"

        "A wise man can learn more from a foolish question than a fool can learn from a wise answer." ~ Bruce Lee

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Persephone View Post
          Tesla's future is murky ever since Elon Musk quit Trump's advisory council. He can kiss the subsidies good-bye. Without taxpayer money, Tesla may not survive for much longer.
          Musk would actually benefit from the ending of the EV tax credits. Tesla's Federal tax credits will begin to phase out after they sell their 200,000th EV... which should occur in mid-2018.
          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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          • #35
            Without the tax credits not as many would or could afford to buy one. The resale value of a used Tesla is not very good either.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Nikki View Post
              Without the tax credits not as many would or could afford to buy one. The resale value of a used Tesla is not very good either.
              Without those credits, nobody will buy one... Except maybe in California where they'll make it illegal to buy any other kind of car...

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