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  • Congressional Midterms

    If this happens, it's going to be an interesting evolution:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartandhp
    We are not now that strength which in old days
    Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
    Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
    To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

  • #2
    2 things to consider

    1) MSN, hell all the mainstream media, were not only wrong, they were so ridiculously wrong as to defy the imagination last election cycle.

    2) Winning a seat, and then not by a landslide, over Roy Moore wouldn't count as a reason to feel 'bullish'. Not with all of the other special elections that they lost after declaring victory prematurely.
    Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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    • #3
      Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
      2 things to consider

      1) MSN, hell all the mainstream media, were not only wrong, they were so ridiculously wrong as to defy the imagination last election cycle.

      2) Winning a seat, and then not by a landslide, over Roy Moore wouldn't count as a reason to feel 'bullish'. Not with all of the other special elections that they lost after declaring victory prematurely.
      But they won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey in addition to the win in Alabama. And a 'W' is a 'W' landslide or not.
      We are not now that strength which in old days
      Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
      Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
      To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

      Comment


      • #4
        True on both counts.

        I would not just take MSN's analysis as cause for celebration....more of a 'signs could be promising' than 'we're going to stomp their @$$'.
        Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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        • #5
          FiveThirtyEight did an analysis of the special elections so far this year and found Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018
          The Democratic margin has been 12 percentage points better, on average, than the partisan lean in each race. Sometimes this has resulted in a seat flipping from Republican to Democratic (e.g. in the Alabama Senate face-off on Tuesday or Oklahoma’s 37th state Senate District contest last month). Sometimes it has meant the Democrat barely lost a race you wouldn’t think a Democrat would be competitive in (e.g. in South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District in June). Sometimes it’s merely been the case that the Democrat won a district by an even wider margin than you’d expect (e.g. in Pennsylvania’s 133 House District last week).

          The point is that Democrats are doing better in all types of districts with all types of candidates. You don’t see this type of consistent outperformance unless there’s an overriding pro-Democratic national factor.
          In a generic ballot poll, Democrats hold biggest lead in congressional preference since 2008 "A double-digit margin here is an important indicator of Democratic intensity," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollsters from Hart Research Associates.
          Fifty percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 39 percent who want Republicans in charge. The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Massena View Post
            But they won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey in addition to the win in Alabama. And a 'W' is a 'W' landslide or not.
            They already had Virginia.
            "I don't discuss sitting presidents," Mattis tells NPR in an interview. "I believe that you owe a period of quiet."

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            • #7
              I doubt that will happen. "All politics are local" and "It's the economy stupid!" rule.

              Well, outside of the two urban coastal regions and university towns Progressives don't stand a chance. The way I see Alabama is Jones is a one-term Senator who squeaked in on a protest vote. Virginia and New Jersey are more red than blue to begin with these days.

              For example, in my own state, I doubt there will be any change in the House for either party unless Kelly runs for Senate then her district will be a toss up. It could go either way. It's also likely Flake's seat will remain Republican, very likely. The Democrat contenders for it other than Krysten Sinema don't stand a chance. If the Democrats ran Ann Krikpatrick again, they'd lose big time.

              The Democrats need more than just an increased dislike of Republicans to sweep the House. They need to be running centrist candidates, not Progressive ones, to win. Doing better in elections than expected but still losing is still losing. Progressive candidates won't fly in most districts in the US.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Nichols View Post
                They already had Virginia.

                Danica Roem's win for the House seat in Virginia is huge both symbolically and historically. She defeated a social conservative icon in Bob Marshall (R), a 26-year incumbent who once called himself Virginia's “chief homophobe.” And she did it by about 10 points at that! Last but not least, she became the first openly transgender candidate elected to a state legislature in American history.

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                • #9
                  The pendulum swings, so never say never.

                  That said, 2016 has demonstrated that the polling process used by most outlets have become increasingly unreliable.

                  The economy is the wild card; if the trend continues the DNC will be fighting uphill; if they keep shafting their own candidates, it will get even worse.

                  The GOP currently holds a record number of state positions, and as noted, politics is local.

                  Inevitably the DNC will recover one or both sides of the aside for a period, but whether it is in 2018 or not is too early to predict.

                  A bit of Congressional gridlock is never a bad thing. We crippled gun control with state lawmakers, after all.
                  Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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                  • #10
                    So far, in 70+ special elections at the federal and state level, Democrats have been 12 percentage points better, on average, than the partisan lean in each race.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Percy Coburg View Post
                      Danica Roem's win for the House seat in Virginia is huge both symbolically and historically. She defeated a social conservative icon in Bob Marshall (R), a 26-year incumbent who once called himself Virginia's “chief homophobe.” And she did it by about 10 points at that! Last but not least, she became the first openly transgender candidate elected to a state legislature in American history.
                      Virginia is lost.
                      “I do not wish to have the slave emancipated because I love him, but because I hate his master."
                      --Salmon P. Chase

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Work_permit View Post
                        So far, in 70+ special elections at the federal and state level, Democrats have been 12 percentage points better, on average, than the partisan lean in each race.

                        But, as the article notes, doing better than expected and losing is still losing. The Democrats need to improve markedly still to start winning consistently. As I pointed out all politics are local when it comes to Congress. The majority of the US is not Progressive or Leftist and won't vote in one if the economy is doing good and those in office now can point to that and some other positives.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                          But, as the article notes, doing better than expected and losing is still losing. The Democrats need to improve markedly still to start winning consistently. As I pointed out all politics are local when it comes to Congress. The majority of the US is not Progressive or Leftist and won't vote in one if the economy is doing good and those in office now can point to that and some other positives.
                          I beleive there are only 10 republican seats where the margin of victory was 10 points or less in the last election. So for the Dems to take the house, they will need a very big wave.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Work_permit View Post
                            I beleive there are only 10 republican seats where the margin of victory was 10 points or less in the last election. So for the Dems to take the house, they will need a very big wave.
                            That's what I see. The Democrats will gain some seats, but it won't be the tsunami necessary to gain control that the Left is all atwitter about. Why? Because the economy is doing well.

                            When Obama lost control of congress, it was because he forced through Obamacare despite lots of public opposition, had just pushed through a huge stimulus spending package that did nothing to revive the economy, and was pushing regulations and policy that wouldn't grow the economy or jobs.

                            Instead, the economy (tanked before his taking office) remained flat. Jobs remained scarce, and people noticed. The mid terms showed that people weren't buying what the Democrats were selling and they lost congress.

                            For that to happen in 2018 first and foremost the economy has to tank. Then Trump has to make some major policy screw up. Right now, neither of those looks like it's in the cards. Therefore, the likely outcome in 2018 is that at best the Democrats gain some ground in Congress but things remain pretty much the same.

                            The Democrat's best bet is to gain control of the Senate back. But, they have two years to do something positive with that. If all they do is obstruct Trump, they won't do any better than the Republicans at gaining control or getting the Presidency in 2020.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Work_permit View Post
                              I believe there are only 10 Republican seats where the margin of victory was 10 points or less in the last election. So for the Dems to take the house, they will need a very big wave.
                              Turns out I was wrong. Here is a site with the full breakdown:
                              https://ballotpedia.org/Margin_of_vi...onal_elections

                              11 Rep seats with a margin less than 5%, 8 seats between 5% and 10%.
                              15 Dem seats with a margin less than 5%, 15 seats between 5% and 10%.

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