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TS Maria, soon to be Hurricane Following almost same path as Irma.

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  • TS Maria, soon to be Hurricane Following almost same path as Irma.

    Not good for the islands already laid low by Irma.

    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    Apart from being an Atlantic tropical storm, Maria isn't even remotely similar to Irma.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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    • #3
      Irma is not among September tropical storms within 2 degrees latitude of Maria.

      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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      • #4
        Maria is much farther south than Irma...



        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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        • #5
          Do not get your point Doc. The current track, which is what I'm talking about has it hitting some of the same islands as Irma . US/UK Virgin Islands etc. Not talking about anything after that.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            Do not get your point Doc. The current track, which is what I'm talking about has it hitting some of the same islands as Irma . US/UK Virgin Islands etc. Not talking about anything after that.
            Moving in the same general direction through the Caribbean region of the Atlantic Ocean is not the same track. Maria is 5 degrees south of Irma.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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            • #7
              The models bear zero resemblance to Irma...

              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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              • #8
                Is it going to hit some of the same island? End of question.

                Following almost same path as Irma.
                adverb
                1.
                very nearly; all but:
                almost
                "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                  Is it going to hit some of the same island? End of question.



                  adverb
                  1.
                  very nearly; all but:
                  almost
                  Look up the definitions of these two phrases:
                  1. "Verry nearly."
                  2. "All but"


                  Then look up the word "path.."

                  I-10 and I-20 hit many of the same States in the same direction. They don't follow almost the same path.
                  Last edited by The Doctor; 17 Sep 17, 09:07.
                  Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                    Moving in the same general direction through the Caribbean region of the Atlantic Ocean is not the same track. Maria is 5 degrees south of Irma.
                    See the word "almost" in the dictionary.
                    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                    “To talk of many things:
                    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                    Of cabbages—and kings—
                    And why the sea is boiling hot—
                    And whether pigs have wings.”
                    ― Lewis Carroll

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                      The models bear zero resemblance to Irma...

                      See original post and it's path.
                      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                      “To talk of many things:
                      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                      Of cabbages—and kings—
                      And why the sea is boiling hot—
                      And whether pigs have wings.”
                      ― Lewis Carroll

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        But that would require that Doc just might be wrong.
                        "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                        Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                        you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                          See the word "almost" in the dictionary.
                          Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                          See original post and it's path.
                          The models of Maria's projected path bear no similarity to Irma's actual path.

                          The paths aren't almost the same.

                          Maria is 5 degrees (300-350 miles) south of Irma...




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                          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                          • #14
                            Irma missed Pueto Rico by 90 miles. Maria is projected to hit it square on. So about 140 miles. Yes when it comes to Hurricians 100 or so miles is 'almost'.

                            Anything after the 3 day track is fantasy. So it's immaterial. You understand models better than that.

                            https://arstechnica.com/science/2017...ricane-models/

                            From Irma.

                            But spaghetti plots are not good decision-making tools. Sorry, they're just not. To understand why, let's take a look at the models on Nate Silver's plot, which he shared with his 2.5 million followers at 7:34pm ET Tuesday:

                            XTRP: This is not a model. It is simply a straight-line extrapolation of the storm's current direction at 2pm Tuesday.
                            TVCN, TVCX: These are useful, as they are consensus forecasts of global model tracks.
                            NHC: This is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
                            TABD, TABM, TABS: These are simple statistical models, which are essentially useless for track forecasting.
                            NVGM: Useful, but the model is from about 8am ET, or 12 hours before Silver posted the graphic. Wildly out of date.
                            HMON: This is NOAA's new hurricane model, but it was badly wrong during Hurricane Harvey. Also 12 hours old. Essentially useless.
                            HWRF: This is NOAA's primary hurricane model, and while it's OK, it is nearly 12 hours old. Not useful.
                            COTC: A version of the US Navy's global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.
                            AVNO, AEMN: Two variants of NOAA's premiere global model, the GFS. Both are worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
                            CMC, CEMN: Two variants of the Canadian global model, which is worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.
                            UKM: The UK Met Office's global model, which is definitely worth looking at. But the forecasts are 12 hours old.
                            CLP5: Not a model at all. Just a forecast based on where storms in this location historically go.
                            This is the essential problem with spaghetti plots. To the untrained eye, all models are created equal, when they most certainly are not. Plots like this also often include forecasts that are 12 or more hours old, which is generally out of date when it comes to hurricanes. Finally, the world's most accurate model, the European forecast system, is proprietary and not included on such plots.
                            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                            “To talk of many things:
                            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                            Of cabbages—and kings—
                            And why the sea is boiling hot—
                            And whether pigs have wings.”
                            ― Lewis Carroll

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              You also seem to think that I'm saying that it will follow Irma's path until it hits the US. I posted no such thing. I simply stated in the OP that it's current project, the one I posted, was almost the same. And yes it is. Same islands we be effected, just in different ways. PR might bare the brunt as opposed to St. Martin etc, however they will also be effected.
                              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                              “To talk of many things:
                              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                              Of cabbages—and kings—
                              And why the sea is boiling hot—
                              And whether pigs have wings.”
                              ― Lewis Carroll

                              Comment

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