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  • The Voter Fraud Thread

    Considering how frequently this seems to be coming up recently, and its liable to not go away anytime soon, I thought it prudent if we kept any news or future commentary on voter fraud / Russian hackers / illegal immigrant voters to one thread. Keeping similar topics together can help keep the forum from getting clogged up and allows other topics to come forward.

    Thanks for your time.

  • #2
    Fox News anchor Shepard Smith shoots down Trump's 'unsupported claims' on voter fraud

    Fox News host Shepard Smith took several minutes out of his program on Wednesday to take aim at President Donald Trump's continued insistence that, despite a complete lack of evidence, millions of people voted illegally.

    "The White House has provided no evidence of any kind to back up these claims," Smith said. "Fox News is not aware of any reliable studies or information that suggests that there is widespread voter fraud anywhere in America."

    The Fox News anchor continued: "Individual secretaries of state across the nation oversee elections, most of them happen to be Republican, and every secretary of state in the United States reports there are no widespread voter fraud."

    Smith also pointed out that the Pew Research Center study that Trump's team frequently highlights does not actually show any cases of voter fraud, and does not pertain to the 2016 presidential election.

    "Again, he has presented no reliable evidence, and neither Fox News, or any other organization of any kind, has presented any evidence of voter fraud," Smith said.
    Business Insider - Full Article

    Comment


    • #3
      Trump promises 'major investigation' into alleged voter fraud

      President Trump announced Wednesday that he will be asking for a “major investigation” into alleged nationwide voter fraud -- a day after his press secretary was grilled on Trump’s claims that 3 million to 5 million people had voted illegally in November.

      Trump announced the move on Twitter, and said the probe will focus on “those registered to vote in two states, those who are illegal and even those registered to vote who are dead (and many for a long time).”

      Trump’s announcement comes a day after White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer was forced to defend claims Trump had made at a private meeting with congressional leaders Monday that 3 million to 5 million people had illegally voted in the election.

      The president took bipartisan criticism for the comments a day later, with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., saying he had seen "no evidence" of Trump's claim.
      Fox News - Full Article

      Comment


      • #4
        Donald Trump’s definition of ‘voter fraud’ appears to include his own daughter and top adviser


        Update: The Post's Matea Gold has now confirmed that Trump's daughter, Tiffany Trump, is also registered to vote in two states -- New York and Pennsylvania. She is the second person close to Trump who has this distinction. And Trump's Treasury secretary nominee Steve Mnuchin is as well.

        President Trump says he will launch an investigation into his baseless claims of widespread voter fraud. But one of the potential areas he highlighted for probing — voters who are registered in two different states — appears as though it would snag his own top adviser.

        Trump tweeted Wednesday morning that his "major investigation into VOTER FRAUD" would be "including those registered to vote in two states."

        One of those people, as it happens, is apparently Stephen K. Bannon, Trump's chief White House strategist.

        The Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported Tuesday evening that Bannon was registered to vote in both Florida and New York. The Post's Matea Gold, meanwhile, reports he attempted to de-register in Florida, but that it was never received or processed:
        Washington Post - Full Article

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        • #5

          Comment


          • #6
            When I set out to do this initial load of content, I was hoping to find some sources which corroborated Trump's claims, but I'm struggling to find... well, anything. Even Fox News has come down hard against Trump's claims.

            The best I've found was references from Trump's administration contending it was a claim stemming from information Trump himself was exposed to, but the wide-body of published material seems to suggest otherwise.

            About the only one I can remember having seen at all was a report Doc published here referencing a study claiming that voter fraud was statistically possible.

            Can anyone share some links backing up Trump, so we have a better body of content to mull over?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
              ...

              Can anyone share some links backing up Trump, so we have a better body of content to mull over?
              Its very late, I have to go now, but even so I would give it a shot...

              But my sources will be attacked, the facts will be counter-facted by suddenly appearing sites, and he usual round-robin will commence.
              Frankly, I'm bored with it all.

              And then you have big-time sources retracting stories that prove the point -

              http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presid...-us-obamacare/

              Its just nuts.
              I think I'll just wait for the investigation, and watch & see who tries to block it on the most ridiculous grounds.
              I expect that 100% of the opposition to the discovery process will be on the Left.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
                Its very late, I have to go now, but even so I would give it a shot...

                But my sources will be attacked, the facts will be counter-facted by suddenly appearing sites, and he usual round-robin will commence.
                Frankly, I'm bored with it all.

                And then you have big-time sources retracting stories that prove the point -

                http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presid...-us-obamacare/

                Its just nuts.
                I think I'll just wait for the investigation, and watch & see who tries to block it on the most ridiculous grounds.
                I expect that 100% of the opposition to the discovery process will be on the Left.
                That's actually just the content I was looking for: something beyond the usual "of course X is true, because my cousin Ted told me it was". It gives us something to actually utilize.

                Right now I'll be honest: the breadth of content against Trump's claims - not saying he was absolutely wrong, just that they are unsubstantiated - means anyone supporting Trump's views should expect an uphill battle if they expect to have such claims taken as fact. What I hope, however, is that we can create something here that will document each side's claims and counter claims to give a reader enough information to decide for themselves.

                Comment


                • #9
                  @Exo:

                  It looks like the study Brierbart is referencing in the WP article was challenged within academia directly. I'll do some searching to see if the original authors responded to defend their study.

                  The perils of cherry picking low frequency events in large sample surveys by Stephen Ansolabehere, Samantha Luks, Brian F. Schaffner
                  Abstract

                  The advent of large sample surveys, such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), has opened the possibility of measuring very low frequency events, characteristics, and behaviors in the population. This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES. The example for this analysis is Richman et al. (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.

                  Edit: this NPR article documents some of the responses to that original study used by the WP in 2014. It's worth noting that it seems the rebuttal of that study involved the authors of the data that subsequent paper utilized. It appears that the 14% figure was due to a fundamental error in their model.
                  Last edited by Daemon of Decay; 26 Jan 17, 00:55.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                    When I set out to do this initial load of content, I was hoping to find some sources which corroborated Trump's claims, but I'm struggling to find... well, anything. Even Fox News has come down hard against Trump's claims.

                    The best I've found was references from Trump's administration contending it was a claim stemming from information Trump himself was exposed to, but the wide-body of published material seems to suggest otherwise.

                    About the only one I can remember having seen at all was a report Doc published here referencing a study claiming that voter fraud was statistically possible.
                    The Doctor's claim has been debunked - the author of the paper says that it does not support millions of non-citizens voting; other academics have reviewed it and shown that a correct statistical interpretation would be 0% non-citizen voting. See this pre-existing thread:

                    http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...d.php?t=175484

                    More detail has emerged of what Trump actually said:

                    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/u...raud.html?_r=0

                    The witnesses described the story this way: Mr. Langer, a 59-year-old native of Bavaria, Germany — a winner of the Masters twice and of more than 100 events on major professional golf tours around the world — was standing in line at a polling place near his home in Florida on Election Day, the president explained, when an official informed Mr. Langer he would not be able to vote.
                    Ahead of and behind Mr. Langer were voters who did not look as if they should be allowed to vote, Mr. Trump said, according to the staff members — but they were nonetheless permitted to cast provisional ballots. The president threw out the names of Latin American countries that the voters might have come from.
                    Mr. Langer, whom he described as a supporter, left feeling frustrated, according to a version of events later contradicted by a White House official.
                    Bernhard Langer is a non-citizen and not eligible to vote, and his family have disputed the accuracy of Trump's version.
                    Last edited by Aber; 26 Jan 17, 03:29.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Aber View Post
                      The Doctor's claim has been debunked - the author of the paper says that it does not support millions of non-citizens voting; other academics have reviewed it and shown that a correct statistical interpretation would be 0% non-citizen voting. See this thread:

                      http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...d.php?t=175484

                      More detail has emerged of what Trump actually said:

                      https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/u...raud.html?_r=0



                      Bernhard Langer is a non-citizen and not eligible to vote, and his family have disputed the accuracy of Trump's version.
                      Na, you don't say. The bugger should just leave itHe got elected.
                      "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                      Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                      you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Trump makes outlandish claims during grilling by ABC News anchor over voter-fraud falsehoods

                        https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-mak...235826534.html

                        "We're gonna launch an investigation to find out," Trump said, doubling down on his Wednesday-morning Twitter announcement. "And I will say this: Of those votes cast, none of 'em come to me. None of 'em come to me."

                        Seriously, his thinking is that of a deranged man.
                        "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                        Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                        you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Just how difficult is it to obtain photo id? Does it involve prohibitive costs? Why not make it mandatory for voting and put an end to these constant claims of massive voter fraud? Is this too rational a solution?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Skoblin View Post
                            Just how difficult is it to obtain photo id? Does it involve prohibitive costs? Why not make it mandatory for voting and put an end to these constant claims of massive voter fraud? Is this too rational a solution?
                            Difficulty varies by state. The cost of the ID itself can often be waived, but local clerks can often get away with ignoring that and demanding the fee anyway. The office may be too far away to get to easily since there's no public transit. Office hours may not include weekends, so you have to get a day off. In some cases there are impossible catches - for a while Georgia required a certified birth certificate in order to get a state photo ID and also required a state photo ID in order to get a certified birth certificate.

                            I think it was the Ford - Carter commission in 2000 or 2001 that suggested getting everyone a standard (or national) photo id first, then requiring it at the polls. The Republicans did not like that national ID at all.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                              Na, you don't say. The bugger should just leave itHe got elected.
                              Yes, but the MO is the same as if he had not been elected. Question the composition of the electorate. It's a mechanism for the potential delegitmization of the US election process and the results it might produce.

                              House and senate will be up for elections next right? If the result does not go Trump's way, this way he MIGHT be establishing a precedent for challenging the outcome.

                              If only he truly represents the American people, and an election result points some other way — well… (I.e. we have seen similar things before, elsewhere, just not in the US.)

                              Comment

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