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  • #76
    Krugman, NYT reviews The Rise and Fall of American Growth

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/bo...that-were.html

    http://www.economist.com/news/books-...why-it-wont-be

    lots of book reviews:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=The+...Growth&start=0

    -The author tries to explain the dramatic changes in productivity growth during the "golden age of productivity" (1920-1970) when it was around 2%, and during the half-centuries before and after (around 0.5%). While the 2nd Industrial Revolution was well under way by the 1890's, the author attributes the delay in growth until the 1920's to slow adoption of innovations. And the reason that computers and digital technology caused only a transient and modest (1%) rise in productivity in 1994-2004 was because, he thinks, it only involved improvements in a narrow set of industries - communication, entertainment, and information technology.

    -Silicon Valley would have you believe that every latest innovation is world changing, although the reality is many are vanity products for affluent younger techies living in urban areas.

    -One of the messages conveyed throughout is that the time lag between the invention of something and its full impact on productivity and growth is on the order of decades.

    - In terms of medical advances the discovery of penicillin and antibiotics had much greater marginal benefits than what is being discovered today. The author also goes on to complain about medical inflation and the structural problems with US healthcare that make productivity growth particularly challenging.
    Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
    Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
    Barbarossa Derailed I & II
    Battle of Kalinin October 1941

    Comment


    • #77
      http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-t...lly-1480647242

      Donald Trump Promises to Usher In New ‘Industrial Revolution’ in Ohio Rally
      President-elect vows sweeping changes to trade policy, national security, infrastructure, military spending and immigration


      Dylan Thomas, 1914 - 1953

      Do not go gentle into that good night,
      Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
      Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

      Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
      Because their words had forked no lightning they
      Do not go gentle into that good night.

      Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
      Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
      Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

      Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
      And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
      Do not go gentle into that good night.

      Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
      Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
      Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

      And you, my father, there on the sad height,
      Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
      Do not go gentle into that good night.
      Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
      Last edited by Cult Icon; 04 Dec 16, 19:11.
      Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
      Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
      Barbarossa Derailed I & II
      Battle of Kalinin October 1941

      Comment


      • #78
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ryPLVEExA0


        "Why is the Rum gone?"

        -Captain Jack

        Comment


        • #79
          Economist (free traded biased magazine) article on Industrial policy, 2010:

          http://www.economist.com/node/16741043

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policy

          snippet from other reviews

          -Yet as profound as this revolution was, Gordon believes it is “unrepeatable because so many of its achievements could only happen once.” Its dramatic innovations were, as Peter Thiel—who endorsed the book and is quoted approvingly within—might say, “zero to one” leaps, such as the spread of electricity into the home, to previously incomprehensible living standards. As Gordon puts it, “…many inventions are one-time only events subject to a long succession of subsequent incremental improvements.”

          -Still, Gordon adds important nuances. He emphasizes, perhaps for the benefit of his fellow economists, that standard income accounting fails to properly value improvements such as longer lives, reduced physical pain, and widespread learning.

          -But Gordon gives insufficient attention to the role of government in fueling innovation. For example, he notes, “First rank among the causes of [health] progress during 1890 to 1940 is awarded to urban sanitation infrastructure.” Absent from this appraisal, however, is an acknowledgement that the infrastructure he praises was planned, built, and funded by government. Gordon only briefly notes how critical governmental innovation was to a range of other advances.

          -While Gordon’s willingness to speculate about what lies ahead is one of the strengths of his book, his blanket skepticism about today’s technologies often sounds unjustified, even arbitrary. He dismisses such digital advances as 3-D printing, artificial intelligence, and driverless cars as having limited potential to affect productivity. More broadly, he ignores the potential impact of recent breakthroughs in gene editing, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, and other areas.



          Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
          Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
          Barbarossa Derailed I & II
          Battle of Kalinin October 1941

          Comment


          • #80
            http://www.wsj.com/articles/aging-po...lan-1480871527

            Aging Population, Stagnant Productivity Challenge Donald Trump’s Growth Plan
            Tax, trade and other policy proposals are targeted to fuel GDP increases of 3.5% or more, but many doubt long-term view

            http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-wa...any-1480899497

            -this and the carrier deal revolved around medium end wares. Likely to be merely symbolic gestures, a portent of things to come???


            -don't see how the US can re-industrialize and start a new industrial revolution without shifting towards a war economy and a new space race against an non-existent competitor. US space expenditures as a % of GDP peaked during the Kennedy/Johnson Administration (3.5%)

            -possible movement towards industrial policy and export promotion; this would involve new modes of thinking and the creation of new bureaucracies.

            -SP500 fell 1% last week after the post-election exuberance wore off.
            Last edited by Cult Icon; 05 Dec 16, 08:15.
            Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
            Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
            Barbarossa Derailed I & II
            Battle of Kalinin October 1941

            Comment


            • #81
              You would think that this election would teach people about predictions based on pure speculation, but apparently there is a steep learning curve...
              Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

              Comment


              • #82
                http://www.wsj.com/articles/greenspa...uge-1480994824

                In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the 90-year-old Mr. Greenspan said he closely follows how much cash flow companies are willing to invest into illiquid long-term investments. That essentially measures the confidence that companies have in their long-term business prospects and differs from investing in other shareholder friendly policies, like dividends and buybacks.

                As Mr. Greenspan tells it, the more confident that companies are, the greater the share of cash flow going into capital investment.

                “This to me is the best measure of what the corporate sector senses about the world at large,” said Mr. Greenspan, who ran the Fed from 1987 to 2006.
                Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                Comment


                • #83
                  WSJ series on small level of meaningful innovation (very similar to Gordon's research project) and probably triggered by America's new political leadership:

                  http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-econ...eas-1481042066

                  The President of CMU states that we are at the very early stages of the 4th Industrial revolution.
                  Last edited by Cult Icon; 08 Dec 16, 13:30.
                  Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                  Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                  Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                  Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Economies grow by equipping an expanding workforce with more capital such as equipment, software and buildings, then combining capital and labor more creatively. This last element, called “total factor productivity,” captures the contribution of innovation. Its growth peaked in the 1950s at 3.4% a year as prior breakthroughs such as electricity, aviation and antibiotics reached their maximum impact. It has steadily slowed since and averaged a pathetic 0.5% for the current decade.

                    ....

                    Economists hotly debate the reasons, but there are several clear forces at play. The hurdles for transforming ideas into commercially successful products have grown. The low-hanging fruit in science, medicine and technology has been harvested and new advances are costlier, more complex and more prone to failure. Innovation comes through trial and error, but society has grown less tolerant of risk.
                    Regulations have raised the bar for commercializing new ideas while directing a growing share of innovative effort toward goals with benefits, such as cleaner air, that don’t translate into gross domestic product. Meanwhile, a trend toward industry concentration may have made it harder for upstart innovators to gain a toehold.
                    The innovation drought isn’t insoluble. Capital is plentiful

                    ...

                    1995 article on GDP:

                    https://www.theatlantic.com/past/politics/ecbig/gdp.htm
                    Last edited by Cult Icon; 08 Dec 16, 14:24.
                    Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                    Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                    Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                    Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Article about Alphabet moving away from the digital to the physical world, which is symbolic of the challenges and lower R & D productivity:

                      I believe Trump has spoken of this desire to "move away from digital to the real world".

                      Moreover, digital progress is rapid, because computing power increases dramatically over time and software can be replicated endlessly. In the physical world, advances are constrained by physics.
                      ....

                      Silicon Valley’s push into the physical world “is going to be a much longer, slower process, especially in the next couple of chapters,” said Andrew McAfee, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who studies technology’s impact on society.
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel

                      One of the minority of top VC's that supported Trump

                      "We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.
                      —Peter Thiel"

                      https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04...on-libertarian
                      Last edited by Cult Icon; 09 Dec 16, 10:48.
                      Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                      Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                      Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                      Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        China vs US : could trump agitate for a new competitive war?

                        Chinese researchers are already catching up in areas such as artificial intelligence, drones and internet technology. In August, China launched the world’s first quantum-communications satellite, potentially putting the country in a lead position to develop hack-proof communications.

                        ...

                        China’s efforts, while welcomed by many in the world’s scientific community, have sharpened tension with Washington and U.S. business leaders, who see China’s innovation push as a form of economic nationalism aimed at replacing U.S. technologies.

                        China’s strides are also spurring competition, which could accelerate advances. U.S. President Barack Obama last year issued an executive order for the U.S. to retake the supercomputing title. The European Union said in April it will plow €1 billion into quantum technology.

                        ...

                        China’s potential for major innovation is still limited to a few areas, notably those—like quantum science or internet finance—with strategic economic or military importance.

                        ...

                        China still lags behind in R&D spending. But it overtook Japan in 2009, Europe in 2013 and is expected to outspend the U.S. by 2020, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD. China’s federal funding for basic science rose to $10.1 billion in 2015 from $1.9 billion in 2005, while U.S. funding dropped slightly in real-dollar terms to $32.4 billion in 2015.

                        ...

                        In 2012, China churned out 964,583 science and engineering college graduates, compared with 589,330 in the U.S., according to the U.S. National Science Foundation.
                        Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                        Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                        Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                        Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Cult Icon View Post
                          The core point is that GDP ignores social costs, eg. the decline of leisure time, family, ethics, and the community that greatly accelerated in the 1990s.

                          Furthermore, the GDP and its various proxies--rates of growth, expansion, recovery--have become the very language of the nation's economic reportage and debate. We literally cannot think about economics without them. Yet these terms have increasingly become a barricade of abstraction that separates us from economic reality. They tell us next to nothing about what is actually going on.

                          The GDP is simply a gross measure of market activity, of money changing hands. It makes no distinction whatsoever between the desirable and the undesirable, or costs and gain. On top of that, it looks only at the portion of reality that economists choose to acknowledge--the part involved in monetary transactions. The crucial economic functions performed in the household and volunteer sectors go entirely unreckoned. As a result the GDPnot only masks the breakdown of the social structure and the natural habitat upon which the economy--and life itself--ultimately depend; worse, it actually portrays such breakdown as economic gain.

                          ...

                          As Western economies went from agriculture to manufacturing to finance and services, modes of measurement generally evolved accordingly. But during this century, and especially since the war, the evolutionary process has slowed to a crawl. The market economy has continued to change radically. In particular it has penetrated deeper and deeper into the realms of family, community, and natural habitat that once seemed beyond its reach. But even as this change has accelerated, the way we measure economic health and progress has been frozen in place.

                          ...

                          At the same time, it meant that only transactions involving money could count in the national reckoning. This left out two large realms: the functions of family and community on the one hand, and the natural habitat on the other. Both are crucial to economic well-being. But because the services they perform are outside the price system, they have been invisible in our national accounting.


                          ....

                          No less important is the way the GDP ignores the contribution of the social realm--that is, the economic role of households and communities. This is where much of the nation's most important work gets done, from caring for children and older people to volunteer work in its many forms. It is the nation's social glue. Yet because no money changes hands in this realm, it is invisible to conventional economics. The GDP doesn't count it at all--which means that the more our families and communities decline and a monetized service sector takes their place, the more the GDP goes up and the economic pundits cheer.

                          ...

                          The strange fact that jumps out from Bennett's grim inventory of crime, divorce, mass-media addiction, and the rest is that much of it actually adds to the GDP. Growth can be social decline by another name. Divorce, for example, adds a small fortune in lawyers' bills, the need for second households, transportation and counseling for kids, and so on. Divorce lawyers alone take in probably several billion dollars a year, and possibly a good deal more. Divorce also provides a major boost for the real-estate industry. "Unfortunately, divorce is a big part of our business. It means one [home] to sell and sometimes two to buy,"a realtor in suburban Chicago told the Chicago Tribune.

                          ....

                          Parenting becomes child care, visits on the porch become psychiatry and VCRs, the watchful eyes of neighbors become alarm systems and police officers, the kitchen table becomes McDonald's--up and down the line, the things people used to do for and with one another turn into things they have to buy. Day care adds more than $4 billion to the GDP; VCRs and kindred entertainment gear add almost $60 billion. Politicians generally see this decay through a well-worn ideological lens: conservatives root for the market, liberals for the government. But in fact these two "sectors" are, in this respect at least, merely different sides of the same coin: both government and the private market grow by cannibalizing the family and community realms that ultimately nurture and sustain us.

                          ....

                          The GDP treats leisure time and time with family the way it treats air and water: as having no value at all. When the need for a second job cuts the time available for family or community, the GDP records this loss as an economic gain.
                          they use a different measure, GPI:

                          To include such factors is to begin to construct a picture of the economy that most Americans experience. It clarifies greatly the "paradox" that permeated the reportage during last year's congressional campaigns. The GDP would tell us that life has gotten progressively better since the early 1950s--that young adults today are entering a better economic world than their parents did. GDP per American has more than doubled over that time. The GPI shows a very different picture: an upward curve from the early fifties until about 1970, but a gradual decline of roughly 45 percent since then. This strongly suggests that the costs of increased economic activity--at least the kind we are locked into now --have begun to outweigh the benefits, resulting in growth that is actually uneconomic.

                          ....

                          Specifically, the GPI reveals that much of what we now call growth or GDP is really just one of three things in disguise: fixing blunders and social decay from the past, borrowing resources from the future, or shifting functions from the traditional realm of household and community to the realm of the monetized economy.


                          Imagine Peter Jennings on the network news tonight reciting the latest Commerce Department figures with his polished gravity. Instead of the GDP, however, he is reporting something more like the GPI. The nation's output increased, he says, but parents worked longer hours and so had less time with their kids. Consumer spending was "up sharply," but much of the difference went for increased medical costs and repairing the rubble left by hurricanes and floods. Utility receipts were up, but resources declined, meaning that part of today's prosperity was taken from our grandchildren. And so on down the line.


                          ....

                          Politicians could no longer get away with glib assurances that the nation can grow its way out of family breakdown and environmental decay, inequity and debt, when in many cases the nation has been growing its way into them.
                          On GATT and trade (1995):

                          Quite eerie:

                          In the recent past these debates have been framed largely in terms of the GDP. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade means "percentage points . . . of U.S. GDP growth," exclaimed Bill Frenzel, a former congressman from Minnesota and a congressional representative to GATT negotiations. "It means trillions of dollars in increased world trade." This kind of talk was typical. In fact the increase means very little--only that more things will pass back and forth between nations. Will families and communities suffer continuing disruption? Will the increased traffic back and forth simply burn up more energy, the price of which is kept artificially low by tax subsidies and the like? Will America lose a measure of control over decisions that affect the lives of its own citizens?

                          ....

                          It would, for example, reflect some of the numerous benefits of local production that don't show up in the GDP- social stability, job security, energy savings, and the like. Free-trade dogma dismisses such thoughts as primitive and benighted.

                          Better indicators would also strengthen the role of family and community values in our policy debates. Rarely does anyone point out how the market itself can undermine family values in the name of growth.

                          ..

                          If factory jobs migrate to low-wage nations, it means cheaper products and more efficiency. But it also means severe family disruption, and the decline of the informal safety net of churches and union halls that once flourished in factory towns and helped families in need.
                          Last edited by Cult Icon; 09 Dec 16, 12:44.
                          Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                          Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                          Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                          Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Cult Icon View Post
                            In 2012, China churned out 964,583 science and engineering college graduates, compared with 589,330 in the U.S., according to the U.S. National Science Foundation.

                            I’ll bet we’re kicking their butts in gender studies, and French renaissance poetry though.
                            Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy. -- Ernest Benn

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Tsar View Post
                              I’ll bet we’re kicking their butts in gender studies, and French renaissance poetry though.
                              a lot of them end up working here through H1B, go figure..
                              Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                              Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                              Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                              Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                http://www.wsj.com/articles/sen-jeff...ans-1481673405

                                Mr. Sessions has heavily influenced the makeup of the transition team for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, these people said, with many of those appointed favoring greater emphasis on manned exploration missions to the moon and deeper into the solar system.

                                Candidates for NASA administrator also are being vetted, in part, by Mr. Sessions or his associates, while officials at Boeing Co. and other legacy aerospace giants increasingly believe Mr. Sessions will help temper possible changes inside NASA that would hurt existing, big-ticket projects to ultimately send astronauts to Mars.

                                Not coincidentally, such exploration would rely heavily on scientists, workers and rocket technology based in Alabama, at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville. Mr. Sessions over the years has been a champion of the agency’s proposed heavy-lift rocket, dubbed Space Launch System, or SLS, and helped protect its roughly $2 billion-a-year price tag from cutbacks proposed by the Obama White House.
                                Zhitomir-Berdichev, West of Kiev: 24 Dec 1943-31 Jan 1944
                                Stalin's Favorite: The Combat History of the 2nd Guards Tank Army
                                Barbarossa Derailed I & II
                                Battle of Kalinin October 1941

                                Comment

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